GnarlyNormEllenberger

Note to Coach DeVries... stay away from the police officers and trash cans. It's not worth the hassle. Signed, A Former IU Coach

Not to doubt Stu's son, but it appears Alexis had a block rate of 5.5% last year (which is pretty good) and was supposedly Top 40 in block rate at Chattanooga the year prior. Not saying he's a hardcore rim protector but it would appear that he's no slouch in that department. Throw in his offensive rebounding rate as well as his put-back ability and I can definitely see how he fits what DeVries appears to be constructing.

New name, same great taste. The rebirth. Gnarly lives!

Bart Torvik's AdjO/D for the last four seasons. If Stevens says no, I think there's a real good chance the next coach is one of the six candidates below (sans Woody, of course.) Dusty May 2025: 20/22 2024: 28/120 2023: 27/40 2022: 131/150 4-Year Average.: 52/83 Mick Cronin 2025: 38/10 2024: 133/55 2023: 23/2 2022: 12/20 4-Year Average: 52/22 Grant McCasland 2025: 9/23 2024: 25/62 2023: 69/22 2022: 128/22 4-Year Average: 58/32 TJ Otzelberger 2025: 26/7 2024: 53/2 2023: 122/7 2022: 184/5 4-Year Average: 96/5 Buzz Williams 2025: 40/8 2024: 22/71 2023: 30/28 2022: 54/30 4-Year Average: 37/34 Greg McDermott 2025: 43/27 2024: 8/32 2023: 21/15 2022: 123/19 4-Year Average: 49/23 Mike Woodson (for reference) 2025: 79/64 2024: 98/77 2023: 36/47 2022: 74/16 4-Year Average: 72/51

Jeff Borzello (national writer at ESPN) article... https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/43722918/indiana-mens-college-basketball-coaching-candidates-mike-woodson-brad-stevens-bruce-pearl He mentions the "shoot for the moon" candidates (Stevens, Drew, Pearl, Otzelberger, May, Beard) that he feels may be challenging for IU to get. Following this section he lists the "Realistic Candidates if Top Targets Say No": Buzz Williams, Grant McCasland and Greg McDermott. But it's what he says at the beginning of the next section (Sleeper Candidates) that really catches my attention... "I don't think it'll get this far, but I wouldn't be surprised to see..." The statement above infers to me that he feels IU can land one of the previous candidates he already mentioned. Friends, if a national writer without IU bias believes that Buzz Williams, Grant McCasland and Greg McDermott appear to be the floor for IU... we're going to be in pretty good shape.

Thanks, friends. A new era is upon us.

Ugh... anyone know how to change usernames on here? Asking for a friend...

I really think whoever controls the game at the line of scrimmage will win this game. Our pass protection vs. Michigan in the second half concerned me. Rourke was under a lot of pressure and we looked a bit rattled and our passing game struggled. But the good news is that this was the first time all season we looked like that. And the first half of that game our pass protection was fine. So I am hopeful that a bye week to further prepare for another stout D-Line will help us be more effective. But a Michigan second-half O-Line performance won't be good enough in this game. For the first time in my life, I actually think we have an advantage with our D-Line vs. their O-Line. Everyone talks about Mikail Kamara (which is deserved) but I feel CJ West deserves as much praise with how much attention he requires on the interior. Same goes for James Carpenter. The fact that Ohio State is a bit banged up on their O-Line makes me feel that we have a great opportunity here. If we can limit their run game and force them into regular passing downs that should allow us to release the hounds and create havoc. A forced fumble or interception could go a LONG way in this one. I'll also say this... Will Howard doesn't scare me as their QB in the same way that CJ Stroud, Justin Fields, Dwayne Haskins, etc. did. Don't get me wrong... Howard is very good. But I don't see him making as many game-changing explosive plays like his predecessors did. I think we can hold serve there. If we can eclipse the 30-point mark, I think we win this game. I really do.

This is the part that worries me...

IU's Athletic Department is going to need to be prepared. There's a very good chance that Cignetti leads us to bowl eligibility by the end of October. There's a very real chance we could even accomplish that by October 5th and start the season 6-0. You look at some of the reasonable projections out there and you'll see projections at 8-4, if not better. Mind you... this is coming off a grand total of nine wins in three years. That would be an amazing turnaround for IU football in just ONE year. The college football world will notice. IU Football doesn't often win 8+ games in a season. When it does, it's newsworthy. It's like when coaches have success at Duke (Mike Elko), Kansas (Lance Leipold) or Vanderbilt (James Franklin). Those coaches suddenly become big-names for coaching vacancies at more prestigious football schools. Why? Because the general thought is that if they can win at a place where it's difficult to win, imagine what they can do with more resources at another school. If Cignetti wins 8 games in YEAR ONE at IU, he'll be a hot name... regardless of his age. Because it would prove (once again) that he can coach. He wins. I've googled him. Now... I understand there are several "if's" that have to happen. We're still early in the season and a lot could change. But there's a very real possibility that Cignetti is going to be a hot name in national coaching circles come November. If we find ourselves heading into that month with 6+ wins, I hope IU is prepared to quickly offer further incentives for him to stay... whatever they may be. Because the fact of the matter is that Cignetti has no real tie to this university. Other schools could offer higher prestige and more resources. He's coached a lot of different places in his career. If IU wants to keep him... they'll need to pounce before the end of the regular season. I don't like IU's chances in a bidding war with other prestigious "football" schools. And if Cignetti would leave... don't think for a moment he's not bringing a bunch of his players/coaches with him wherever he goes. I don't want to see IU left at that spot at such an important time in the college football landscape. Again, I understand there's a lot of "if's." But I'll give you one more... "if" we have a coach with a career record of 119-35 that comes in here and immediately wins 8+ games... the athletic department needs to do everything it can to ensure he's the coach at IU for many years to come.

Exactly. I don't know if many predicted Archie's firing on February 15th, 2021. (At that time we were 11-9 (6-7).) I do think it's notable that national guys like Jeff Borzello and Trilly Donovan are mentioning that there's a little bit of uncertainty already here on February 15th while IU sits at 14-10 (6-7). Borzello wrote "it could go either way" and Donovan has started mentioning that "Woodson's not doing himself any favors" just weeks after being pretty clear that he was not in any trouble. This proves to me that the "Hot Seat" smoke has some substance and is not purely the imagination of disgruntled fans.

A lot of IU fans like to knock Painter because of his lack of deep tournament runs. But you know what? I'd love to have a coach like him on the sidelines. A coach that has made the NCAA Tournament eight of the last nine years. 14/18 years total. He has won four Big Ten regular season tiles. Two Big Ten tournament titles. His teams have finished in 4th place or better in the Big Ten in 13/18 years. His teams are almost always near the top of the Big Ten. Also, lean years are okay when credit is built up around it. He has a clear scheme and system. He recruits to it and he does it well. While he can land top-tier talent (Jaden Ivey, Caleb Swanigan, E'Twaun Moore, etc.) he doesn't just chase top talent. He knows what his system requires to make it work. And it doesn't require a team of top recruits. He always has shooters. He always has big guys. They move on offense. They play aggressive defense. They rebound. They always have bulldogs. They always play with intensity and they always hustle. You pretty much know what Purdue is going to be every year... tough, competitive and disciplined. They're always (at the very least) good. It's easy to identify because that was how Knight ran the program for many years. This is why I can get behind potential hires of guys like Micah Shrewsberry or Dusty May in the future. Because I really feel they would try to develop the same type of program in the same manner. Build the team/system and add the top talent vs. add the top talent to build the system. One style allows you something to fall back on when you miss on a top recruit or two... which is something that IU has struggled with a lot in recent years. I could be wrong... but I just get the feeling that Shrewsberry and May are cut from that same cloth and would win a lot of games at IU. No guarantees, though, and I could be wrong. Still can't believe how badly Archie flamed out. Also, I would recommend folks getting in their pot-shots on Painter soon because it appears there is a good chance the proverbial monkey will get off his back in another couple of months. They have a really good team.

This is a fair viewpoint and it is entirely possible that you are spot-on. But I also think that some of your assertions don't have any more certainty than the ones it would appear you are debating against. Your first couple of paragraphs assert with some confidence that Woody will definitely make some noticeable changes next year that will definitely get us back to the tournament. I mean... maybe? But I don't think one can blame another fan for being hesitant with this prediction. What would make the average fan believe that legitimate changes are coming? In his press conferences he has consistently pushed back against the notion of modern basketball tendencies such as increased 3FG proficiency, running a single post, spreading out the offense, etc. He has shown his strong desire to adhere to his nail-slot-rim defensive philosophies despite not appearing to have the personnel to run it effectively. Basically, he just says they need to keep working on the things they are doing. There are certainly some positive qualities I could use to describe Mike Woodson but innovative, adaptable and versatile do not come to mind. RE: Recruiting. He's been able to get some talented players... there's no doubt. But his roster construction is probably the #1 reason why this year's team has struggled so much. He banked heavily on the health of Johnson and Newton, the continued emergence of Galloway and the readiness of Cupps... none of which have had anywhere near the level of success required for a team to win championships (which he repeatedly mentioned was why he came here to coach.) Instead, he continued to recruit both Walker and Sparks to buff a frontcourt that didn't really need buffing with Ware and Reneau in the fold. Did he feel like the frontcourt really needed depth but the backcourt did not? Mind you... we still have an open scholarship. That question leads me to mention how I struggle to believe Woodson is only playing a post-centric style because "he has to." I'd make the argument that he has most certainly prioritized the post during his tenure here and we're seeing the returns on that this season. So if there are clear roster construction concerns (especially in the free agency period of college basketball) do we really have the confidence of him being able to retain/assemble a more complete roster next year (and the years to come?) Like you said (and I believe you are 100% accurate) the portal does not make it easy to rebuild. You can't just add the most talented pieces and make it work. We tried this year. Ware and Mgbako are wonderful talents. But the pieces don't fit. The chemistry isn't there. As such, I don't think it's unreasonable for anyone to have legitimate concerns that even if we add Queen and a top-tier portal guard next year while retaining a fair amount of the roster (which is far from a guarantee... and is that even in the best interest of the program?) that we're going to be clearly better. A transfer PG-Galloway-McNeeley-Reneau-Queen lineup will still be very post-centric. If Mgbako returns even moreso. It's setting up to be the same style Woody has run since he has been here. Talented? Yes. Does it work? Far from a guarantee. Especially without an All-American TJD. As far as the health of the program goes... a legitimate portion of the fanbase has already began to question Woodson. We have already heard boos rain down from Assembly Hall. I'm curious to see the temperature of the program this time next month. If we don't show some competitive fire (i.e win more than a game or two) here down the stretch then we're going to have a very toxic situation on our hands. Is it healthy for the program to carry that level of toxicity through the offseason? Can Woodson successfully recruit within that environment? Is it good for the program if Woodson enters next year on all of the "Hot Seat" lists next year? I'm afraid that any sort of success they would have next year would be torn down the first time they lose a game they should have won or play poorly. The next three weeks or so is very important for this program. There's no reason why we can't win five or six of the last conference games , salvage an NIT bid and build some momentum into next year. I really hope that happens! Our schedule is more than manageable. But if we continue our current trajectory and only win another game or two... you're going to see a really toxic situation. It'll make the current "unrest" of the fanbase seem mild. We've seen this movie before.

A few thoughts... -RE: Shooting. Has Woodson ever really highlighted shooting as a problem? That's an honest question. I know he has repeatedly pushed back against any notion that our lack of perimeter shooting is an issue. What I have heard him say is that guys need to hit the shots we take... which doesn't really address any issue. I say this because I've heard some mention they believe we're only a couple of good shooters away from being a good team. But when has Woodson ever addressed shooting through recruiting? He has with McKneeley, but outside of that... not so much. It appears he has passed on the opportunity to recruit better shooters in favor of chasing NBA-style/blue-chip players. Does he view shooting to be a problem? I'm not so sure. This leads me to my next point... -RE: Style of Play: Has Woodson shown in three years that he likes running plays for shooters? Not really. He has mentioned it "wasn't his job to run plays for Miller Kopp" despite Kopp being one of the better shooters in the Big Ten. No other player has shown much proficiency scoring from the outside in his tenure. Some guys have hit high percentages but on low attempts. Which begs the question... is this appealing to the prospective perimeter help next year/beyond? What we have seen is a style predicated heavily on running two posts along with a wing that may even be better utilized as a stretch-4 in modern basketball (TJD/Race/Kopp and Ware/Reneau/Mgbako.) It would not appear we are an attractive destination for top-notch shooter... even if we felt the need to prioritize them. -RE: Injuries/"Next Man Up": We've heard Woodson say "it's next man up" for much of the season. This implies that the standard does not change despite the availability of certain players. It implies "you have to be ready when your name is called." We're not. Our roster construction does not help this... which leads to the next point... -RE: Roster Construction: I've heard some express concern that firing Woodson would lead to an overhaul of the roster. From my perspective, an overhaul of the roster appears inevitable regardless. X and Walker are gone for sure. Galloway and Leal TBD. Ware is a pretty safe bet to go pro. Mgbako wanted to be one and done and it hasn't worked out like that at IU... will he stay here or try his luck elsewhere (just like Ware did with Oregon.) Gunn, Banks and Sparks are struggling to find the court and Cupps has astoundingly low levels of offensive production. It's not hard to fathom any of those guys leaving. Meanwhile, we're currently bringing in one guy (McNeely) when we're realistically gonna have to have at least another 5-man class coming in next year. Can we reasonably trust this coaching staff to construct a sure-fire NCAA Tournament roster through the portal after seeing what happened this year? Maybe... but it takes a fair amount of faith in the staff. -RE: "My Goal Is To Win Championships": Woodson said this repeatedly his first couple of years. Right now we're nowhere close. How does he change this? -RE: The Numbers: The most important statistic at the end of the day is our overall win/loss record. Looking at advanced statistics like AdjO, AdjD, etc. I am quite surprised we're as good as 13-9 (5-6). Can even this meager win percentage be sustained for the remainder of the year? Statistics and predictive measures suggest otherwise. But games aren't played on paper. This is where adjustments play a role. We'll see what happens. -RE: Fan support: We've seen it time and time again. Once you lose the fans the writing is on the wall. It was with Davis, Crean and Archie. It was with Tom Allen and Bill Lynch and Gerry Dinardo. You have to have hope. A reason for optimism. A realistic belief of good times ahead. Have we reached that point with Woodson. I don't know. As Woody says himself, "Only time will tell." If this season ends with many more losses... I think you'll have the answer.