Bracketology/NCAA Postioning

[MartintheMopMan 7,765]

Someone posted a super cool spreadsheet of Ken Pom's pre-tourney data and how far each team went yesterday, but it was in some slightly random thread. So... whomever it was would you mind reposting it here? I can't seem to find it this morning.

[Brass Cannon 24,070]

Pretty sure that was the Vegas odds thread

[MartintheMopMan 7,765]

Andy Bottoms brackets as if March 8.

http://assemblycall.com/author/andy-bottoms/

I forgot Oregon was a top 2-seed. I was hoping if we snuck onto the 2 line and they put us far from home we might end up in Spokane and at least I could go up and watch, but no way unless Oregon messes up bad in the Pac-12 tourney. They'll definitely be location favored up there. Oh well. Probably safe to take that time off my work calendar now that I realized it.

[MartintheMopMan 7,765]

Pretty sure that was the Vegas odds thread

Nailed it.

 

 

Oh my goodness.  Statistics fan wet dream right here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KUMU7x_8WBxYuROD4fuOsHWp1WIk-YIyX6ZwK5F7inw/edit#gid=1386191792

 

"Of interest: here is a google sheet with all pre-tourney kenpom data, including filters depending on how far each team went. You can use this to look at basic kenpom stats/ranks before tourney play started. You can make interesting pivot tables such as: double digit seeds that made it to S16 or E8, then analyze the characteristics of those teams, or champs, or Final Four... etc.

Best practices is to use the 02-14 tab and create a pivot table from there. "

 

[MartintheMopMan 7,765]

So, interesting note on the spreadsheet, defenses are universally worse this year. No team has won a championship with lower than a 94.25 adjusted D (UNC 2003) which was ranked 38th that year. That would be good for 14th this year.

 

4 of the last champions had a better adjusted D than Witchita State (best right now).

 

There have been 6 Final Four teams and 2 runners up ranked 67th or lower in Adjusted D (about 12%).

 

Of the 13 champs, 3 were ranked 1 overall, 5 ≤ 2, 6 ≤ 4, 10 ≤ 5. Then it immediately drops and the other 4 teams were 7, 13, 20, 25.

 

We always talk about how every team was top-40 in adjusted D, but more importantly, all but 3 (Duke 2005, Syracuse 2003, Connecticut 2011) were top 18. 6 were top 10.

 

On offense, Connecticut is the only team without a top-18 offense to win a championship. 6 were top 10.

 

Of the Final Four, only two champions had the top defense in their Four (Duke 2010 and Kentucky 2012).

 

If these stats held true, smart money all goes for: Virginia and Kansas followed by Villanova then Oklahoma. I’d focus on Kansas or Villanova in particular.

[Walking Boot of Doom 18,170]

So, interesting note on the spreadsheet, defenses are universally worse this year. No team has won a championship with lower than a 94.25 adjusted D (UNC 2003) which was ranked 38th that year. That would be good for 14th this year.

 

4 of the last champions had a better adjusted D than Witchita State (best right now).

 

There have been 6 Final Four teams and 2 runners up ranked 67th or lower in Adjusted D (about 12%).

 

Of the 13 champs, 3 were ranked 1 overall, 5 ≤ 2, 6 ≤ 4, 10 ≤ 5. Then it immediately drops and the other 4 teams were 7, 13, 20, 25.

 

We always talk about how every team was top-40 in adjusted D, but more importantly, all but 3 (Duke 2005, Syracuse 2003, Connecticut 2011) were top 18. 6 were top 10.

 

On offense, Connecticut is the only team without a top-18 offense to win a championship. 6 were top 10.

 

Of the Final Four, only two champions had the top defense in their Four (Duke 2010 and Kentucky 2012).

 

If these stats held true, smart money all goes for: Virginia and Kansas followed by Villanova then Oklahoma. I’d focus on Kansas or Villanova in particular.

Been looking at the same teams as you, but I have no faith in those teams. Sadly, I see a team like Kentucky getting hot and taking it.

[biteoftheapple 4,115]

Not surprising that #1 seeds have won the most championships since the 64 team field was introduced, in 15. #2 and #3 seeds each have won 3. The lowest seed winner was a #8. Only once has a 4 #1 seeds have made the final 4.

[Walking Boot of Doom 18,170]

Per KenPom, the champion with the worst defensive efficiency score, North Carolina in 2009, had a pre-tourney score of 95.35. Indiana currently has a pre-tourney AdjDE score of 98.2 (lower scores are better). 

[Uwe Robb 1,072]

Per KenPom, the champion with the worst defensive efficiency score, North Carolina in 2009, had a pre-tourney score of 95.35. Indiana currently has a pre-tourney AdjDE score of 98.2 (lower scores are better). 

What about the offenses?

[MartintheMopMan 7,765]

Per KenPom, the champion with the worst defensive efficiency score, North Carolina in 2009, had a pre-tourney score of 95.35. Indiana currently has a pre-tourney AdjDE score of 98.2 (lower scores are better). 

That's why I started with that note about the difference in defensive efficiency this year. That UNC team was ranked 49th in 2009, but would be ranked 14th this year. 4 Champs and 30% of Final Four teams have better AdjDE than the best AdjDE this year.

 

There are serious relative differences which make the stat less reliable. 

 

What about the offenses?

Again, it shows the unreliability of these stats for predictive purposes. Our offense is currently better than every Final Four team but 3. Illinois 2005 (runner-up), UNC 2009 (champs), Kansas 2008 (champs).

 

I'd say the change in shot clock time makes a big difference for the stats themselves.

[Walking Boot of Doom 18,170]

What about the offenses?

Average AdjOE of champions since 2002 is 116. Indiana currently has an AdjOE of 119.6, which would rank as the third highest pre-tourney rating among champions behind 2008 Kansas (120.9) and 2009 UNC (121.9).

[Walking Boot of Doom 18,170]

That's why I started with that note about the difference in defensive efficiency this year. That UNC team was ranked 49th in 2009, but would be ranked 14th this year. 4 Champs and 30% of Final Four teams have better AdjDE than the best AdjDE this year.

 

There are serious relative differences which make the stat less reliable. 

 

Again, it shows the unreliability of these stats for predictive purposes. Our offense is currently better than every Final Four team but 3. Illinois 2005 (runner-up), UNC 2009 (champs), Kansas 2008 (champs).

 

I'd say the change in shot clock time makes a big difference for the stats themselves.

The ranking each year accounts for the relative differences each year. Indiana would need the greatest defensive ranking improvement since 2002 to break into that top 40 champion floor.

[MartintheMopMan 7,765]

The ranking each year accounts for the relative differences each year. Indiana would need the greatest defensive ranking improvement since 2002 to break into that top 40 champion floor.

Yes, but you stopped talking ranking and started talking AdjDE and AdjOE, which is what my comment was about.

 

Also, Duke was 57th a week from now last year and improved to 12th during the tourney.

[Uwe Robb 1,072]

Average AdjOE of champions since 2002 is 116. Indiana currently has an AdjOE of 119.6, which would rank as the third highest pre-tourney rating among champions behind 2008 Kansas (120.9) and 2009 UNC (121.9).

So I assume the stats on the free KenPom site have included the tournament?

[MartintheMopMan 7,765]

So I assume the stats on the free KenPom site have included the tournament?

Yeah. KenPom's free stats are through the last game played.

[Uwe Robb 1,072]

That's why I started with that note about the difference in defensive efficiency this year. That UNC team was ranked 49th in 2009, but would be ranked 14th this year. 4 Champs and 30% of Final Four teams have better AdjDE than the best AdjDE this year.

 

There are serious relative differences which make the stat less reliable. 

 

Again, it shows the unreliability of these stats for predictive purposes. Our offense is currently better than every Final Four team but 3. Illinois 2005 (runner-up), UNC 2009 (champs), Kansas 2008 (champs).

 

I'd say the change in shot clock time makes a big difference for the stats themselves.

Looking at the free KenPom site I see a couple things that jump out at me.

 

2003 Marquette's numbers were 119.7/99.3

2016 Indiana's number currently are 119.6/98.2

 

some other high defensive #'s that make the Final Four

 

2003 - Texas - 97.4

2011 - Butler - 95.1

2011 - VCU - 98.0

2014 - UK - 96.9

2014 - Wisky - 97.6

2015 - Wisky - 96.3

 

I follow the rankings pretty closely but I can honestly say I didn't pay much attention to the actual numbers until recently. I don't think it is possible for IU to drop to a 95.1 before seasons end, but could they hit the 96.5 - 97.5 range??

[Walking Boot of Doom 18,170]

Yes, but you stopped talking ranking and started talking AdjDE and AdjOE, which is what my comment was about.

 

Also, Duke was 57th a week from now last year and improved to 12th during the tourney.

Yeah I know, I'm bouncing around cuz I'm at work and trying to pretend to be engaged while trying to focus on that data and our convo haha.

 

I'm looking at the margin between AdjOE and AdjDE of all champions. I'm not the greatest stats guy, but what are your thoughts on that?

[Uwe Robb 1,072]

Yeah I know, I'm bouncing around cuz I'm at work and trying to pretend to be engaged while trying to focus on that data and our convo haha.

 

I'm looking at the margin between AdjOE and AdjDE of all champions. I'm not the greatest stats guy, but what are your thoughts on that?

So am I correct in saying that you will could see major bumps in either direction when playing higher ranked teams?

[Walking Boot of Doom 18,170]

So am I correct in saying that you will could see major bumps in either direction when playing higher ranked teams?

Absolutely. I've been paying attention to our defensive ranking changes since we started playing better B1G opponents hoping to see large improvements, and it just hasn't happened. 

[raorIU 300]

Absolutely. I've been paying attention to our defensive ranking changes since we started playing better B1G opponents hoping to see large improvements, and it just hasn't happened.

Disclaimer: at work, on mobile, so no research attempted

Is it possible to generate our rating using _only_ data since conference play started?