Let’s talk Roster! 2026/2027

[Pagoda]

I get the roster concerns people have.  TBD, but valid.

I really think the problem was how expensive the portal is and how much we had to use it again in season two.

Below is how programs make their roster budget go far:

1) Scouting: This is an extreme example, but Wagler as a #140+ ranked high school kid was probably ~$500K last year (before he blew up and got other deals Illinois didn't have to pay for).  What a steal for Illinois -- his real value was closer to something like $4M.
2) Development: A 5ppg player is on a cheap deal.  Turn them into a 10ppg material contributor and they're still on the same cheap deal for the rest of the year (sometimes two years).
3) Retention: A happy player in a great situation won't hit the portal for $1 more.  For most, it will take several hundred thousand more to hit the portal and risk a good thing.  So, retaining players is quite a bit cheaper than getting them from the portal.

In season one, we did very little of the above.  Not good and really put us in a bad spot.

On top of the portal being expensive, IU's recent struggles mean we don't have much to offer but money.  We aren't a title contending NBA factory.

So, all that means our $18-20M budget couldn't go very far and we've still got roster questions.  Also, there is a chance we could have made some player selection errors on top of that.  I'm not sure... hard to tell.  TBD.

Anyways, we need to get on the track of doing a good job with scouting/dev/retention.  Without that we have no chance, even if you give the staff top-10 money for the roster each year.

[AH1971]

1 minute ago, Pagoda said:

I get the roster concerns people have.  TBD, but valid.

I really think the problem was how expensive the portal is and how much we had to use it again in season two.

Below is how programs make their roster budget go far:

1) Scouting: This is an extreme example, but Wagler as a #140+ ranked high school kid was probably ~$500K last year (before he blew up and got other deals Illinois didn't have to pay for).  What a steal for Illinois -- his real value was closer to something like $4M.
2) Development: A 5ppg player is on a cheap deal.  Turn them into a 10ppg material contributor and they're still on the same cheap deal.
3) Retention: A happy player in a great situation won't hit the portal for $1 more.  For most, it will take several hundred thousand more to hit the portal and risk a good thing.  So, retaining players is quite a bit cheaper than getting them from the portal.

In season one, we did very little of the above.  Not good and really put us in a bad spot.

On top of the portal being expensive, IU's recent struggles mean we don't have much to offer but money.  We aren't a title contending NBA factory.

So, all that means our $18-20M budget couldn't go very far and we've still got roster questions.  Also, there is a chance we could have made some player selection errors on top of that.  I'm not sure... hard to tell.  TBD.

Anyways, we need to get on the track of doing a good job with scouting/dev/retention.  Without that we have no chance, even if you give the staff top-10 money for the roster each year.

The staff has nobody to blame but themselves for points 2 and 3. There was very little to develop because the staff went senior heavy year 1 and with what little underclassmen they brough in, they ran them off after the season. I still want to know what Darren Harris does that Nick Dorn can't do, and for half the cost. Does the staff think someone like Trevor Manhertz is more ready next year than Josh Harris? 

[Pagoda]

26 minutes ago, Home Jersey said:

I think it's more than fair to say there's a lot of question marks with the roster and program heading into Y2.

Even so, we should have more P5 talent and size on this roster, so I'm content to wait and see how they do. Plenty of good reasons to be skeptical which have been covered at length already.

For me, as long as Cig is here, it will be more enjoyable to focus on and enjoy IUFB in the offseasons.

Yep.  Cig & Co are great scouts, player developers, and retainers.  That's how they spent ~$22M on the roster and beat all these programs spending $35-40M.  Most amazing thing I've ever seen.

[Pagoda]

Just now, AH1971 said:

The staff has nobody to blame but themselves for points 2 and 3. There was very little to develop because the staff went senior heavy year 1 and with what little underclassmen they brough in, they ran them off after the season. 

100% agree.  And on top of that we didn't win much with all those one-year left seniors.  Painful.

As for who the staff let go and brought in... I get your point.  I don't know until the season plays out.  I get the concerns.

[Stuhoo]

32 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

How many meh programs are spending $20 million on a basketball roster? How many $20 million rosters are there total in college basketball next year? Of the $20 million rosters in college basketball next year, how many share as many weaknesses as this IU roster? For $20 million, I would have expected a much better constructed roster.  

Sean Miller recently stated that at least 20-25 programs have a $20 million or more roster.

Almost all of those programs have significantly fewer holes to fill than IU does.

So I asked you a reasonable question, and I am waiting for you to answer it, because otherwise you are all complaints and no solutions/proposed different strategy. The question is:

Can you name a P4 program

1. As 'meh' as IU and
2. With as many holes to fill

[Stuhoo]

23 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

The staff has nobody to blame but themselves for points 2 and 3. There was very little to develop because the staff went senior heavy year 1 and with what little underclassmen they brough in, they ran them off after the season. I still want to know what Darren Harris does that Nick Dorn can't do, and for half the cost. Does the staff think someone like Trevor Manhertz is more ready next year than Josh Harris? 

^^Now THIS I can get behind.^^

We kinda screwed ourselves with the roster construction from last year. Should have taken our lumps with more developmental players so that we didn't need to start from scratch for the second consecutive year. However, we were not going to be in a position to bring in a viable freshman class going into last year. I'm not thinking any part of the solution was to bring back Dorn or Harris - neither impressed me. But pretty much none of our featured players had more than one year of eligibility remaining. That was a big mistake. 

[AH1971]

7 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Sean Miller recently stated that at least 20-25 programs have a $20 million or more roster.

Almost all of those programs have significantly fewer holes to fill than IU does.

So I asked you a reasonable question, and I am waiting for you to answer it, because otherwise you are all complaints and no solutions/proposed different strategy. The question is:

Can you name a P4 program

1. As 'meh' as IU and
2. With as many holes to fill

1. I would need to see the teams spending $20 million+ to make such an assessment

2. $20 million isn't an excuse not to have any depth off the bench. If we spent $20 million on this years roster, that means guys like Harris and Mustaf got a ton. At those prices, I feel both of them together are redundant...we essentially lost out on a depth big adding both. I've explained several times over the past month or so how I would have gone about addressing the portal differently. I would have kept Dorn (at at least half the price of Harris) and would have used to the 7+ figures we ultimately spent on Harris to add a serviceable big. Sisley, Dorn, and a serviceable big as your 6-8th men next year is better than whatever we're attempting roll out next year. 6-10 are either true freshman or guys with minimal run who have proven nothing. 

[Stuhoo]

14 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

1. I would need to see the teams spending $20 million+ to make such an assessment

2. $20 million isn't an excuse not to have any depth off the bench. If we spent $20 million on this years roster, that means guys like Harris and Mustaf got a ton. At those prices, I feel both of them together are redundant...we essentially lost out on a depth big adding both. I've explained several times over the past month or so how I would have gone about addressing the portal differently. I would have kept Dorn (at at least half the price of Harris) and would have used to the 7+ figures we ultimately spent on Harris to add a serviceable big. Sisley, Dorn, and a serviceable big as your 6-8th men next year is better than whatever we're attempting roll out next year. 6-10 are either true freshman or guys with minimal run who have proven nothing. 

You keep asserting that Harris cost at least double what Dorn is getting from U Miami.

And you therefore are convinced that for the price of Harris we could have acquired Dorn and a servicable/experienced D1 big.

I see no reason to think that is true. In any event, any servicable, experienced D1 big would likely cost more than either Dorn or Harris.

FOR INSTANCE:

Alvaro Folgeirous is an experienced, career backup 6'10", 230 lb P4 big. Last year at Iowa he averaged 8.4ppg, 3.6 rpg, 33% 3pt in 20 mpg with one start in 37 games played.

Louisville signed him for next year for...$3.5 million.

[WayneFleekHoosier]

8 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

Sean Miller recently stated that at least 20-25 programs have a $20 million or more roster.

Almost all of those programs have significantly fewer holes to fill than IU does.

So I asked you a reasonable question, and I am waiting for you to answer it, because otherwise you are all complaints and no solutions/proposed different strategy. The question is:

Can you name a P4 program

1. As 'meh' as IU and
2. With as many holes to fill

Texas, USC likely better rosters on paper.  Similar spending.  
 

Similar rosters with less spending.  Maryland, Villanova, Miami.  
 

We spent big to secure our top 6.  They see that and Sisley as top 7.  I don’t think many have issues with that.  Add a starting level 4 and some bench depth with a pulse and it everything changes. If one of Burton, Sherrill, Yigi go down we fall off a cliff.  
 

I like the idea of the top end but I’m not high on our freshman outside of PAM being ready in year 1.  If I were, that changes a lot.  

[AH1971]

9 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

You keep asserting that Harris cost at least double what Dorn is getting from U Miami.

And you therefore are convinced that for the price of Harris we could have acquired Dorn and a servicable/experienced D1 big.

I see no reason to think that is true. In any event, any servicable, experienced D1 big would likely cost more than either Dorn or Harris.

IF we spent $20 million on a roster...how much do you think Harris got? We have 12 players on the roster, that's $1.6 million a player on average and we know guys like Sokolov and Monden are making hardly anything, if at all. And I can't imagine Manhertz and Karvala are making a significant amount either. We spent a lot on Harris if this is in fact a $20 million roster. 

[WayneFleekHoosier]

Duke and UK add Boumtje Boumtje and Nicola Kusteric respectively. I don’t know what those guys cost and likely not cheap, per se, but those are the type of moves that CAN elevate a team.  Take a swing on a young prospect.  

[Stuhoo]

5 minutes ago, WayneFleekHoosier said:

Texas, USC likely better rosters on paper.  Similar spending.  
 

Similar rosters with less spending.  Maryland, Villanova, Miami.  
 

We spent big to secure our top 6.  They see that and Sisley as top 7.  I don’t think many have issues with that.  Add a starting level 4 and some bench depth with a pulse and it everything changes. If one of Burton, Sherrill, Yigi go down we fall off a cliff.  
 

I like the idea of the top end but I’m not high on our freshman outside of PAM being ready in year 1.  If I were, that changes a lot.  

Those rosters all return a ton more than IU. And returning players invariably (not always, but as a general reality) cost less, because. even for a payday, most 20 year olds don't want to move every year.

That's on our staff for not spending on effective two year players last year. On that point i 100% agree. Spending big on players like Conerway, Bailey, Tucker, and even Wilkerson left our pantry dead bare coming into this year. Hence, the need to dice roll on injuries. And because bigs are so much more expensive, we decided that the way to increase our talent level was to maximize the talent for the 1-3 spots.

[ronzo4IU]

1 hour ago, Home Jersey said:

I totally get the gripes with the roster but this is just not the case.

By all reports our basketball spend is close to $20M this year and our national champion football team also has a player payroll that's among the highest in the nation.

There's plenty of money available, the coaches just need to use it effectively. Dolson and the AD seem to have done a good job of monetizing the football success and investing in the fledgling flagship program that is IUBB.

We play in Peru in about a month. And IUFB will be here before we know it. Super excited for that. 

I was kind of teasing, but we should be spending more that the Louisville, St Johns of the world. 

Maybe our new staff wanted to make a big splash right off the bat and land a couple big fish and threw caution to the wind? 

Maybe, but our donors could of threw in a little more this year to get us over the hump at least.  After all, this would be a good year to do it with who we have...could be a powerhouse and the trickle down effect would be huge for the future.

[Stuhoo]

16 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

IF we spent $20 million on a roster...how much do you think Harris got? We have 12 players on the roster, that's $1.6 million a player on average and we know guys like Sokolov and Monden are making hardly anything, if at all. And I can't imagine Manhertz and Karvala are making a significant amount either. We spent a lot on Harris if this is in fact a $20 million roster. 

It's a good question. Let's do the math, and with an agreed understanding that bigs cost the most, followed by point guards, and then wings.

I'm thinking

• Sherrell got $5m and
• Yigi got $4m as the two primary bigs; add
• $1.25m for Sisley and we've paid out over 1/2 the roster for the three primary bigs.

So let's say

• $3.5 for Burton because he's a pg,
• $2 for Mustaf,
• $1.25 for Harris and
• $1.25 for Lindsay.

That's $18.25m for our top seven and $1.75m spread around the other five players. Sound about right?

If we generally agree on this estimate, to add Alvaro freakin' Figueirous we would have had to drop Sisley, Harris, and Lindsay, more or less.

If that happened THEN how would you like our depth? Our starting five would be

1. Burton,
2. PMoody at the two,
3. Mustaf at the three,
4. Sherrell and
5. Yigi, with

Figueirous as the first big off the bench, Monden as our primary backup guard, and Karvala as the primary backup wing.

[AH1971]

4 minutes ago, Stuhoo said:

It's a good question. Let's do the math, and with an agreed understanding that bigs cost the most, followed by point guards, and then wings.

I'm thinking Sherrell got $5m and Yigi got $4m as the two primary bigs; add $1.25m for Sisley and we've paid out over 1/2 the roster for the three primary bigs.

So let's say $3.5 for Burton because he's a pg, $2 for Mustaf, $1.25 each for Harris and Lindsay. That's $18.25m for our top seven and $1.75m spread around the other five players.

Sound about right?

Calling Sisley a primary big just makes me queasy. I sure hope he isn't making $1.25 million. Sherrell, Yigi, and Burton all look pretty accurate, would guess Burton closer to $3mil though. I think Lindsay, Mustaf, and Harris are all in the $2mil range. 

I think you could have kept Dorn and added a quality 4/5 for the cost of Harris and been in a much better position. Dorn is Miami's 4th or 5th guard next year, he's not getting anywhere close to what Harris is making. 

[Stuhoo]

6 minutes ago, AH1971 said:

Calling Sisley a primary big just makes me queasy. I sure hope he isn't making $1.25 million. Sherrell, Yigi, and Burton all look pretty accurate, would guess Burton closer to $3mil though. I think Lindsay, Mustaf, and Harris are all in the $2mil range. 

I think you could have kept Dorn and added a quality 4/5 for the cost of Harris and been in a much better position. Dorn is Miami's 4th or 5th guard next year, he's not getting anywhere close to what Harris is making. 

In this market for bigs? I'd be surpirsed if Sisley isn't getting at least $1.25 m. 

And the market for wings is much lower - Lindsay at least has a record of real success as a D1 starter and I could see him as high as $2, but I doubt it. Harris was a back bencher wing; that's not a $2 million player; I suspect that if he was coming from any place other than Duke you'd agree.