Coronavirus and Its Impact

[mdn82 25,510]

Here is what I said on another site with regard to the model's prediction of Alabama fatalities:
April 2nd:  "Here is why I don’t agree with the model. They just updated the projected deaths in Alabama by 6000, predicting 5000 by may 1. Alabama has 1000 cases and 28 deaths now. Using a 5 day incubation, and a 3 week resolution to death — everyone sick today would need to die and at least 4000 would need to get sick and start dying, like today. Nobody anywhere is seeing those kinds of rates."
That is what I mean by testing against reality.  A few days later they dropped Alabama total fatalities to about 600.  I don't know if that makes me the "smartest people on the planet" but I did graduate from IU and stay frequently at the Holiday Inn in B-town.  
And any model based on China data is a fraud.  We knew they where lying weeks ago.   

Again you are using assumptions to dispute assumptions. “Nobody anywhere”... You do realize they are not looking at the death rate of other countries and blindly explaining this = America right? Alabama doesn’t even equal Nevada in the same country as there are so many differences that come into play. You are looking into data from other countries where the demo, healthcare, doctor/nurse per patient, and overall setup are different and comparing to USA. You have done that since February. Daily. No matter which way you change your words around you are making assumptions based on data with no context and blindly throwing on this, while complaining people shouldn’t listen to assumptions. I get it. You don’t like models. But that is how everything is ran in every sector and even in the government. This is what they get elected for. To gather data and make decisions. If you don’t agree with that elect someone you think will choose the model you like best in a crisis. They will all use models. You will be skeptical of them still. More so if it isn’t someone from your party. It is what it is. That’s the majority of all people. Elect the person that represents you the best cause this aspect of life won’t change.


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[RaceToTheTop 25,851]

2 hours ago, Hoosierfan2017 said:

That's my point though. A one-size fits all shelter-in-place order doesn't make much sense given how different parts of the US are from other parts. My parents' town has a thousand people in it. Why have it under the same kind of order as New York City? They're still packing subway cars in New York while businesses are all shut down in small towns.

Ripley County has the second highest rate of confirmed coronavirus cases per population in Indiana.  Largest city in the county is Batesville and Batesville isn't even fully in Ripley County (part is in Ripley, part is in Franklin).  Decatur County has the highest rate and the county has about 23,000 people...the county I live in has 7 times the population of Decatur but has fewer confirmed cases than Decatur does.  

And if there was truly a one-size fits all shelter in place order, we would have 50 states all having the exact same shelter in place orders at exactly the same time.  That didn't happen. 

[RaceToTheTop 25,851]

1 hour ago, Golfman25 said:

Density affects the spread.  The worst place  you can be is in a bus or a subway car.  IF it does hang in the air for a while, on cough on a subway car can infect the whole car.  We see that in NYC -- where everyone takes public transportation.  Less so in LA, where everyone drives. 

Smaller counties can control it by testing and contact tracing.  Going forward, masks, testing and contact tracing will be key.   

Under NY's guidlines, the curve is flattening.  Guarantee you that the subways are not as full as they were before or would be without the shelter in place order.

[Lebowski 2,744]

I think it's really important to understand the term 'flattening the curve' as this term is what's driving a lot of the predictive models some folks on here don't seem to grasps.  Or at least not fully addressing it when they post their opinions on here.  

Here's a link that explains it pretty well.
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html

Cliff notes:
The faster the infection curve rises, the quicker the local health care system gets overloaded beyond its capacity to treat people. As we're seeing in Italy, more and more new patients may be forced to go without ICU beds, and more and more hospitals may run out of the basic supplies they need to respond to the outbreak. 

A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time. A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system, fewer hospital visits on any given day and fewer sick people being turned away. 

A model is also adjusted based on exponential growth of the spread as well.  Ultimately being able to test would really hammer down some of these predictive models being applied.  A very good model to look at is South Korea.  

 

[Class of '66 Old Fart 84,777]

University of Wisconsin does not intend to grant 35 spring sport seniors an extra year of eligibility despite NCAA decision.

UW has "made the decision to not pursue waivers that would extend the eligibility of our senior student-athletes," according to a statement from the athletic department. "Student-athletes in their fourth year of eligibility have concluded their careers with us."

Full story at:

https://madison.com/wsj/sports/college/wisconsin-badgers-seniors-wont-return-to-spring-sports-in-2021-athletic-department-says/article_32a85306-19dc-5969-9a61-d6608992eea4.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_WiStateJournal

[Golfman25 5,448]

25 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Under NY's guidlines, the curve is flattening.  Guarantee you that the subways are not as full as they were before or would be without the shelter in place order.

Or there are less subways?  Less trains, but still crowded cars.  https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/apr/07/viral-image/image-overcrowded-nyc-subway-car-real/

[maharkn 1,736]

University of Wisconsin does not intend to grant 35 spring sport seniors an extra year of eligibility despite NCAA decision.
UW has "made the decision to not pursue waivers that would extend the eligibility of our senior student-athletes," according to a statement from the athletic department. "Student-athletes in their fourth year of eligibility have concluded their careers with us."
Full story at:
https://madison.com/wsj/sports/college/wisconsin-badgers-seniors-wont-return-to-spring-sports-in-2021-athletic-department-says/article_32a85306-19dc-5969-9a61-d6608992eea4.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_WiStateJournal

Would cost the school to much money

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[Chips&Dipo 1,464]

18 minutes ago, Lebowski said:

I think it's really important to understand the term 'flattening the curve' as this term is what's driving a lot of the predictive models some folks on here don't seem to grasps.  Or at least not fully addressing it when they post their opinions on here.  

Here's a link that explains it pretty well.
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html

Cliff notes:
The faster the infection curve rises, the quicker the local health care system gets overloaded beyond its capacity to treat people. As we're seeing in Italy, more and more new patients may be forced to go without ICU beds, and more and more hospitals may run out of the basic supplies they need to respond to the outbreak. 

A flatter curve, on the other hand, assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time. A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system, fewer hospital visits on any given day and fewer sick people being turned away. 

A model is also adjusted based on exponential growth of the spread as well.  Ultimately being able to test would really hammer down some of these predictive models being applied.  A very good model to look at is South Korea.  

 

I work at a hospital (not a doctor) and that has been the administrations concern from day one. Ultimately, you can't eradicate a disease if you don't have a vaccine or a cure for it. What you can do is stretch the infected population so as to not stress the system and to make it so you can effectively treat every patient that comes in with it. 

[Golfman25 5,448]

55 minutes ago, mdn82 said:

Again you are using assumptions to dispute assumptions. “Nobody anywhere”... You do realize they are not looking at the death rate of other countries and blindly explaining this = America right? Alabama doesn’t even equal Nevada in the same country as there are so many differences that come into play. You are looking into data from other countries where the demo, healthcare, doctor/nurse per patient, and overall setup are different and comparing to USA. You have done that since February. Daily. No matter which way you change your words around you are making assumptions based on data with no context and blindly throwing on this, while complaining people shouldn’t listen to assumptions. I get it. You don’t like models. But that is how everything is ran in every sector and even in the government. This is what they get elected for. To gather data and make decisions. If you don’t agree with that elect someone you think will choose the model you like best in a crisis. They will all use models. You will be skeptical of them still. More so if it isn’t someone from your party. It is what it is. That’s the majority of all people. Elect the person that represents you the best cause this aspect of life won’t change.


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But for the fact that I called it several days before the model changed, your right.  

[Chips&Dipo 1,464]

1 minute ago, Golfman25 said:

But for the fact that I called it several days before the model changed, your right.  

I'm surprised CDC hasn't called you already

[Golfman25 5,448]

1 minute ago, Andowen1990IU said:

I'm surprised CDC hasn't called you already

They should.    :)   I also took the under when they claimed 100,000-200,000 fatalities.  Oh, and we are still not close to Italy -- 49 vs 302 fatalities/ 1m.  

[Hoosierfan2017 21,477]

3 hours ago, Andowen1990IU said:

You are arguing that the experts don't know what they are talking about and we should abandon the stay at home approach adopted by every other country effected by this (whether by order or practice) and deemed to be the best way to slow the spread of the disease and flatten the curve from our own government. 

Also, your second argument doesn't make sense. Is NYC under the same order or are they out and about like you claim? Because it can't be both. You will always have people not complying with something like this, but that is the case for people in New York or the group of people hanging out in my subdivision. Additionally, they have the same "essential" rule that we have and most people in NYC don't have a car and HAVE TO take the subway to get to work.

I have friends in NYC and I know for a fact that most businesses in NYC are closed. You are willfully ignorant or getting your information from a bad source if you think people in NYC aren't hurting from this just as bad (probably more so) than people in small towns.

I'm not exactly sure what you're talking about here. NYC is on a shelter in place with non-essential businesses closed. So is Indiana. People are still packed into the subway.

You say I'm arguing that the experts don't know what they're talking about. Yes, that's largely what I'm saying. The 'experts' also told us that coronavirus can't be transmitted from person to person. The 'experts' also told us not to wear masks because masks don't work. Now they've changed their stance. Why should we blindly believe what the 'experts' tell us when they've already gotten so many things wrong?

The countries that have restricted movement the most - Spain, Italy, and France - have also been hit the hardest. You assume that shelter in place in the only way to slow the spread, but I've given you 7 states without shelter in place orders that are doing fine. Their hospitals are empty, not overrun. They have few deaths. Places like Sweden are avoiding shutdowns right now. They may have a larger short-term hit, but the idea is that it will allow them to have a smaller long-term hit. 

Do the models predict how many people die if unemployment hits 30%? 17 million in the past three weeks and some want to act like these shutdowns are sustainable for months to come.

[mdn82 25,510]

They should.    :)   I also took the under when they claimed 100,000-200,000 fatalities.  Oh, and we are still not close to Italy -- 49 vs 302 fatalities/ 1m.  

What does Italy have anything remotely to do with America?


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[Lebowski 2,744]

5 minutes ago, Andowen1990IU said:

I work at a hospital (not a doctor) and that has been the administrations concern from day one. Ultimately, you can't eradicate a disease if you don't have a vaccine or a cure for it. What you can do is stretch the infected population so as to not stress the system and to make it so you can effectively treat every patient that comes in with it. 

Honestly, I would imagine that's been the concern from the top to bottom at every level in every sector whether that be government or private.  The ultimate goal here is to save lives and avoid unnecessary deaths.  The amount of beds per 1k people here in the states is something like 2.8.  South Korea has 12.3.  That's what I think some of the folks on here don't fully understand or aren't addressing.  

On a side note: You have to be an incredibly selfish arrogant person to not follow the guide lines of social distancing because it's ultimately about saving lives.  I mean to self quarantine is a gift.  That's a gift you're giving other people.

[Golfman25 5,448]

6 minutes ago, mdn82 said:

What does Italy have anything remotely to do with America?


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I don't know.  Go back to the first several pages where everyone said we are looking like Italy and smacking my arse for daring to say we aren't Italy.  (maybe it was the post that was removed). 

[mdn82 25,510]

But for the fact that I called it several days before the model changed, your right.  

I am not even sure what you what me to say to this. I have yet to see your model. So not sure what you called and what your criteria was within that model? You really have provided more misinformation in this thread than anyone from the beginning. You know nothing about the American Healthcare system or where the issues are. If you say you have worked in that environment I would call BS. I will not award you any points and may god have mercy on your soul .

 

 

Edit - I really was legit laughing the whole time I typed this.

 

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[mdn82 25,510]

I don't know.  Go back to the first several pages where everyone said we are looking like Italy and smacking my arse for daring to say we aren't Italy.  (maybe it was the post that was removed). 

Fair enough. I don’t recall and I was legit perplexed.


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[Chips&Dipo 1,464]

1 minute ago, Lebowski said:

Honestly, I would imagine that's been the concern from the top to bottom at every level in every sector whether that be government or private.  The ultimate goal here is to save lives and avoid unnecessary deaths.  The amount of beds per 1k people here in the states is something like 2.8.  South Korea has 12.3.  That's what I think some of the folks on here don't fully understand or aren't addressing.  

On a side note: You have to be an incredibly selfish arrogant person to not follow the guide lines of social distancing because it's ultimately about saving lives.  I mean to self quarantine is a gift.  That's a gift you're giving other people.

100% agree.

Our civic duty right now is to stay home. This pales in comparison to what past generations have been asked to do for the greater good. I understand that some people are really hurting right now due to lost jobs and income, and hopefully the government can help them get through this (in my opinion this is an issue we should have been addressing a long time ago with better social safety nets...but that is a separate discussion), but it isn't like we are being asked to sacrifice our lives or food like generations before us have. Stay home, keep yourself and others safe, and we will all make it through this. 

Until then, I am going to keep listening to the experts. Stay safe everyone. 

[Golfman25 5,448]

5 minutes ago, Lebowski said:

Honestly, I would imagine that's been the concern from the top to bottom at every level in every sector whether that be government or private.  The ultimate goal here is to save lives and avoid unnecessary deaths.  The amount of beds per 1k people here in the states is something like 2.8.  South Korea has 12.3.  That's what I think some of the folks on here don't fully understand or aren't addressing.  

On a side note: You have to be an incredibly selfish arrogant person to not follow the guide lines of social distancing because it's ultimately about saving lives.  I mean to self quarantine is a gift.  That's a gift you're giving other people.

No problem with social distancing.  What I don't need is the social distancing Nazis threatening arrest for throwing a softball with their kid.   https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-former-cop-arrested-social-distance-play-catch-daughter-20200408-plfk64splfc4dbcozwk3ndk63e-story.html

[Golfman25 5,448]

3 minutes ago, mdn82 said:

I am not even sure what you what me to say to this. I have yet to see your model. So not sure what you called and what your criteria was within that model? You really have provided more misinformation in this thread than anyone from the beginning. You know nothing about the American Healthcare system or where the issues are. If you say you have worked in that environment I would call BS. I will not award you any points and may god have mercy on your soul .

 

 

Edit - I really was legit laughing the whole time I typed this.

 

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Please point to the misinformation I have posted.  So far I have been right.  So pound sand.