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Aaron Apprentice

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Baseball America is assuming a deep run in the Tourney and is being WAY too optimistic. IU has a TON of work to do to go at-large.

RPI is 58 and anything less than a sweep this weekend will leave it in the upper 50's where it is now. A sweep will move RPI to right around the lower 50's and then probably two Big Ten Tourney wins puts you in discussion.

If IU goes 2 of 3 probably anything short of making Big Ten title game will likely not be enough. Softball's RPI was 46 with a much better record and an otherwise similar resume to be last four in by making conference championship. Baseball will need to do the exact same without a sweep.    

With a sweep you might be able to get away with making the Semifinals and getting in.

I am sorry to pour cold water on this at-large excitement. However, the reality is the team has tons work to do to get a bid without winning conference tourney. Softball had work to do as well and barely did enough with an RPI that is around 10 spots higher. Baseball has even more it needs to have happen and is at least some combination of five wins minimum from at-large discussion including Big Ten Tourney.

RPI does not need to get to exactly 45, but it needs to get at least into the high 40s which will require a sweep and two wins in conference tourney or 2 of 3 and three wins in Omaha. Lose this series and auto-bid is only way.      

It gives be no pleasure to be the barer of bad news but the above I wrote is the somewhat long odds IU is facing to get in :(. Not impossible, but tons of work to do.  

CSP Enthusiast

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17 minutes ago, Aaron said:

Baseball America is assuming a deep run in the Tourney and is being WAY too optimistic. IU has a TON of work to do to go at-large.

RPI is 58 and anything less than a sweep this weekend will leave it in the upper 50's where it is now. A sweep will move RPI to right around the lower 50's and then probably two Big Ten Tourney wins puts you in discussion.

If IU goes 2 of 3 probably anything short of making Big Ten title game will likely not be enough. Softball's RPI was 46 with a much better record and an otherwise similar resume to be last four in by making conference championship. Baseball will need to do the exact same without a sweep.    

With a sweep you might be able to get away with making the Semifinals and getting in.

I am sorry to pour cold water on this at-large excitement. However, the reality is the team has tons work to do to get a bid without winning conference tourney. Softball had work to do as well and barely did enough with an RPI that is around 10 spots higher. Baseball has even more it needs to have happen and is at least some combination of five wins minimum from at-large discussion including Big Ten Tourney.

RPI does not need to get to exactly 45, but it needs to get at least into the high 40s which will require a sweep and two wins in conference tourney or 2 of 3 and three wins in Omaha. Lose this series and auto-bid is only way.      

It gives be no pleasure to be the barer of bad news but the above I wrote is the somewhat long odds IU is facing to get in :(. Not impossible, but tons of work to do.  

That is not what Baseball America is doing, in fact. Baseball America has them in because.. they're in, in their eyes. 

Baseball has better wins, has done immensely better in conference, and has played a considerably better schedule than softball. Not sure why you're comparing the two. Softball non conference SOS was 132--- baseballs is  54. Basically every number heavily favors baseball, compared to softball, other than RPI. 

I'm not sure why you were confused about my post.

Aaron Apprentice

Aaron

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1 hour ago, btownqb said:

That is not what Baseball America is doing, in fact. Baseball America has them in because.. they're in, in their eyes. 

Baseball has better wins, has done immensely better in conference, and has played a considerably better schedule than softball. Not sure why you're comparing the two. Softball non conference SOS was 132--- baseballs is  54. Basically every number heavily favors baseball, compared to softball, other than RPI. 

I'm not sure why you were confused about my post.

I just thought you were a little overly optimistic. Maybe comparing softball was a bit much and confusion was the wrong emoji.

However, without the RPI getting to at least the high 40's they will not even be considered. To get there they need some combination of five wins between now and selection Sunday. Even the IUBase guys who are the most optimistic out there have more or less said they have a ton of work to do and need several more wins.

Winning two of three does not give IU a decent chance but makes them need to get all the way to the conference championship to have a chance. A sweep still leaves you a couple games short still.

The committee does things almost exclusively on RPI and unless they get it into the 40's (which will take five wins) they will not even be considered. They will not take a Big Ten team with an RPI in the low 50's regardless and they likely need five wins to get higher than that. They are 66 RPI points out of the top 50 and a sweep would get you 35-40. 2 of 3 would lose you 10-15 RPI points for the weekend.

Just trying to make sure everyone understands the realistic math and where IU stands. I pay much more attention to the RPI and resume than anything the bracketologists say and IU is about five games short of where they need to be right now to be considered and need some combination of that between now and selection Sunday to have a chance which is possible. However, tons of work to do and 2 of 3 this weekend leaves you needing three wins and getting to conference championship and be considered.      

I didn't mean to be confused by your post as much as making sure everyone understands they are a few wins away still.

I definitely appreciate everyone's optimism for sure. However, the chances are somewhat short of rosy right now when looked at realistically. 

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