The Iowa Cauceyes

[Bryan Medema 1,488]

Figured we had some good threads for the debates, might as well start one for this. I imagine I have the moderators support in saying keep it polite please.

[Parakeet Jones 4,028]

I was watching an IU @ Iowa game one presidential election year in January and Shon Morris called them the Hawkeye Cauci. To this day that is what I refer to them as.

[southsidehoosier 5,149]

Not the way I would've chosen to spell Cauceyes but carry on

[Bryan Medema 1,488]

I was under pressure! I've been saying it for weeks but never bothered to write it down!

[southsidehoosier 5,149]

Spelled cuka's?

Think more penis slang

[OliviaPope40 7,443]

http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/what-is-the-difference-between-a-primary-election-.html

Here's the spark notes.

[Bryan Medema 1,488]

This thread has been a dud. My bad BTB people. 

[MartintheMopMan 7,765]

This thread has been a dud. My bad BTB people. 

The GOP pick wasn't exciting (and the GOP pick is always meaningless in Iowa) and the Dems were (and still are) in a statistical dead heat late into the night. Not much to talk about with that.

 

But so, Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Interesting top-3. And then statistical deadheats hunh? If Bernie can't carry Iowa which is 91% white and exit polling indicates his popularity was highest with young, poorer, whites then what will the southern states look like for him?

 

And Trump seems to poll much better than he can turn out votes with Trump picking up 5 fewer points and Cruz picking up those points. Rubio seems to have established himself very well and picked up the voters from every other candidate. It will be a three horse + Carson for some reason race after this.

 

Democratic polls projected the race only a point or two more spread than it turned out to be, which is fair because statistical ties are very difficult to predict. That will put a lot of pressure on Sanders to step up his game in the places he isn't polling well.

[Bryan Medema 1,488]

The GOP pick wasn't exciting (and the GOP pick is always meaningless in Iowa) and the Dems were (and still are) in a statistical dead heat late into the night. Not much to talk about with that.

 

But so, Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Interesting top-3. And then statistical deadheats hunh? If Bernie can't carry Iowa which is 91% white and exit polling indicates his popularity was highest with young, poorer, whites then what will the southern states look like for him?

 

And Trump seems to poll much better than he can turn out votes with Trump picking up 5 fewer points and Cruz picking up those points. Rubio seems to have established himself very well and picked up the voters from every other candidate. It will be a three horse + Carson for some reason race after this.

 

Democratic polls projected the race only a point or two more spread than it turned out to be, which is fair because statistical ties are very difficult to predict. That will put a lot of pressure on Sanders to step up his game in the places he isn't polling well.

 

Good assessment. I thought the GOP was exciting primarily because a) The Cruz dip didn't happen (and actually went the other way) and b) Rubio's performance exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. Definitely makes for an interesting continuation. I see Cruz as poised to pick off the Carson/Huckabee supporters with Rubio taking Bush/Christie/Kasich. Obviously it's not a 1:1 type thing, but I don't see anyone really jumping up insurmountably (especially given proportional delegate allocation until 15MAR). I maintain my prediction that its going to be a brokered convention and Rubio will be nominated.

 

As for the left, I agree that Sanders had to carry (not just tie) both Iowa and New Hampshire to be able to give a real challenge. He'll win NH (though I think it'll be slightly closer than current expectations) but Nevada and South Carolina are hostile turf. Super Tuesday will be the day of reckoning and, at that point, I expect the party to coalesce (especially if the GOP seems to be doing the same). 

 

Either way, thanks for the Poli-Sci degree IU: I finally get to use it.