Big Ten Tourney Probabilities

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

Found this chart fairly interesting. This chart showings the probabilities of each team advancing through the tournament given their path as of today. Should be interesting to see as this gets updated after each round.

Indiana, although the #8 seed, has the 6th best chance of winning the whole thing.

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[CampHoosier 3,697]

Seems about right with our draw. Minnesota is playing for their tournament lives however. Also, Iowa needs some wins desperately to get a quality seed. IU, Minnesota, and Iowa have the most to lose and the most to gain. 

 

EDIT: Not sure why in the world they have OSU over MSU. That's really weird to me

[Str8Hoosiers 2,965]

It is all about the draw... OSU would play Nebraska Friday and although they did get the 4 seed they were GREAT at home and OSU should be able to handle them on a Neutral, then would have to play Mich... MSU on the otherhand has to go through Iowa who desparately need a big win and then Wisc who is hot.

[Rayl 527]

Pomeroy finally released his odds. He gives us a slightly better chance of winning. Slightly.
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/big_ten_log51

[Myrmidon76 614]

Are there any records of percentages back went Iowa won 4 in a row to get in? I seem to recall them being out one year due to their final record, but they won the tourney and got in. I guess my point is that I know it can be done. To be honest, I think the worse the odds are, the better it bodes for the team. They act like a bunch of crazed dogs in "must win" type games this year. Hopefully, the boys can channel that for 4 games! :)

[Kilroy 271]

2.16%? So you're saying there's a chance?

[Yackbutter 0]

UCON several years ago won straight through their tourney and strait through to the Finals.  It can happen.  Not saying it will likely happen, but that was the dream i had last night right as i was falling asleep.

 

GO HOOSIERS!

 

Jason

[Rayl 527]

Are there any records of percentages back went Iowa won 4 in a row to get in? I seem to recall them being out one year due to their final record, but they won the tourney and got in. I guess my point is that I know it can be done. To be honest, I think the worse the odds are, the better it bodes for the team. They act like a bunch of crazed dogs in "must win" type games this year. Hopefully, the boys can channel that for 4 games! :)

 

I doubt you are going to find any contemporary odds for Iowa that year. That was the 2001 tournament. Most sites don't have records that far back. They probably would have had similar odds to us this year, maybe a bit more. Iowa was the 6th seed that season.

 

It's certainly possible that we can win out. 2% isn't much of a chance, but it's a chance.

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

I think we have a 6.25% chance.

We are a 50/50 team on who shows up.

Therefore it's ,5 x .5 x .5 x .5 = 6.25%


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