PC Stellar Merrimack at Indiana simulation

[RaceToTheTop]

I put the two teams into the PC Stellar game and ran it ten times.  Results were as expected IMO:

Average score:  IU 73.5, Merrimack 49.4.  Only one game within double digits, which was a 71-63 overtime win by IU.

Team stats:  

Indiana:  49% from the field, 41% from three, 68% free throws, +11.5 rebounds.  14.1 turnvoers

Merrimack:  30% from the field, 27% from three, 75% free throws, 12.2 turnovers.

Indiana stats:  (I had to limit the roster to 10 players since PC Stellar limits rosters to 10 -- I put Lander and Durr in the 10 and Leal not in since Lander and Durr have played more minutes this year.

averages:

TJD 63/116 from the field, 38/63 free throws, 6.5 rebounds, 3.2 blocks, 16.4 points.

XJ:  36/67 from the field, 11/19 from three, 33/39 from the line, 6.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.1 to, 11.6 pts

Stewart:  44/88 from the field, 24/58 from three, 5/11 from the line, 3.6 rebounds, 11.7 pts

Thompson:  38/75 from the field, 21/27 from the line, 11.7 rebounds, 9.7 pts

Kopp:  25/64 from the field, 12/34 from three, 7/9 from the line, 4.3 rebounds, 6.9 pts

Bates:  23/40 from the field, 9/16 from three, 1/1 from the line, 1.0 rebounds, 5.6 pts

Phin:  12/34 from the field, 6/16 from three, 5/11 from the line, 2.5 rebounds, 1.5 ast, 3.5 points

Lander: (9 games)  11/30 from the field, 4/13 from three, 8/10 from the line, 2 reb, 1.9 ast, 3.4 points

Geronimo:  13/28 from the field, 1/7 from three, 5/13 from the line, 5.8 reb, .5 ast, 3.2 points

Durr:  0/5 from the field, 8/8 from the line, 0.9 reb, 0.5 ast, 0.8 pts

 

 

 

 

 

 

[go iu bb]

1 hour ago, brumdog45 said:

I put the two teams into the PC Stellar game and ran it ten times.  Results were as expected IMO:

Average score:  IU 73.5, Merrimack 49.4.  Only one game within double digits, which was a 71-63 overtime win by IU.

Team stats:  

Indiana:  49% from the field, 41% from three, 68% free throws, +11.5 rebounds.  14.1 turnvoers

Merrimack:  30% from the field, 27% from three, 75% free throws, 12.2 turnovers.

Indiana stats:  (I had to limit the roster to 10 players since PC Stellar limits rosters to 10 -- I put Lander and Durr in the 10 and Leal not in since Lander and Durr have played more minutes this year.

averages:

TJD 63/116 from the field, 38/63 free throws, 6.5 rebounds, 3.2 blocks, 16.4 points.

XJ:  36/67 from the field, 11/19 from three, 33/39 from the line, 6.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.1 to, 11.6 pts

Stewart:  44/88 from the field, 24/58 from three, 5/11 from the line, 3.6 rebounds, 11.7 pts

Thompson:  38/75 from the field, 21/27 from the line, 11.7 rebounds, 9.7 pts

Kopp:  25/64 from the field, 12/34 from three, 7/9 from the line, 4.3 rebounds, 6.9 pts

Bates:  23/40 from the field, 9/16 from three, 1/1 from the line, 1.0 rebounds, 5.6 pts

Phin:  12/34 from the field, 6/16 from three, 5/11 from the line, 2.5 rebounds, 1.5 ast, 3.5 points

Lander: (9 games)  11/30 from the field, 4/13 from three, 8/10 from the line, 2 reb, 1.9 ast, 3.4 points

Geronimo:  13/28 from the field, 1/7 from three, 5/13 from the line, 5.8 reb, .5 ast, 3.2 points

Durr:  0/5 from the field, 8/8 from the line, 0.9 reb, 0.5 ast, 0.8 pts

 

 

 

 

 

 

How close have these been for fast games? Just curious.

[RaceToTheTop]

I haven’t run it for this years games.   Overall it has done a decent job in the past but does not do a good job on estimating home court advantage.

[JHoosier914]

Is this program online? Cost?


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners

[go iu bb]

Simulation: 73.5 to 49.4 IU

Score with 4 minutes left: 75-47 IU.

Not bad.

[RaceToTheTop]

5 hours ago, JHoosier914 said:

Is this program online? Cost?


Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners

It used to be online, but the owner took it down.

That said -- it was a free program.  If you PM me an e-mail address, I can send it to you.  You have to input team stats to create the teams but once you get that procedure down, it's like 15 minutes to create one.

[RaceToTheTop]

1 hour ago, go iu bb said:

Simulation: 73.5 to 49.4 IU

Score with 4 minutes left: 75-47 IU.

Not bad.

It missed on threes hit by Merrimack but called the Indiana board dominance.  It saw IU committing quite a few turnovers so called that.  Missed on Stewart, had him scoring a dozen.

[go iu bb]

42 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

It missed on threes hit by Merrimack but called the Indiana board dominance.  It saw IU committing quite a few turnovers so called that.  Missed on Stewart, had him scoring a dozen.

Still the final score wasn't far off. IU scored better 81 vs 73.5 but you were spot on for Merrimack. 

As for individual players, I imagine for most players on the team that will be off more often than not. TJD is pretty consistent and Thompson is getting there. After that everyone is wildly inconsistent.

You nailed the overall shooting % for Merrimack 29.6% vs your 30%. The 3 and FT percentages not so much.

IU's FT %: 68.8% vs your 68%.

But overall it's not too far off which is pretty cool.