IU Baseball

[CSP]

2 hours ago, Aaron said:

Must have been a late add or they know he is transferring so they didn't include him even though he has not made it official. Hopefully it is the former.

Lots of dudes show up late/decide late to play summer league. 

[CSP]

LHP- Kraft, Bothwell, Keyster, Holderfield(fingers crossed), and Top 200 incoming FR Rushing 

I like the thought of that. 

RHP- Sinnard, Manase, Risedorph, Foley, Whiteaker, Phillips, Ey, incoming FR Benes, and I believe Jasen Oliver will pitch. And Cooper Katskee. I detailed the returning guys ERA and will again to include Bothwell, Burton, and Ball... it will increase some.. I know they like Burton running the bullpen. Helping the young kids get ready. That has some value. 

He (Oliver) might try to play infield, as well. 

Plus-- about 4-5 grad transfer type guys from the right side. @Aaron mentioned a few of them. These would be one inning type guys, and truthfully not all of them will make the roster. 

1. Whiteaker is a big one for me. Can he throw closer to 45 innings+...2. what level does Foley/Risedorph get to? That would give you 6-7 top shelf arms, if things fall in our favor/moderate improvement... 

Outside of that... I think you can easily find 4-5 more guys to compete and eat up innings. 

Major X factor is Holderfield.. that kid has nasty stuff and has a MAJOR screw loose. I could truly see him throwing some high leverage situations for us this year (might allow Kraft to be our #2). 

 

[CSP]

 

This is the type of stuff I've been talking about... 

Foley this season--- 29IP 3.72ERA 42K... if he can throw 45 innings+ next season, to go along with Risedorph, Sinnard, and Kraft.. We've really got something. 

[CSP]

Just about guaranteed Wiggins is going to be Hoosier. The signing bonuses the rounds 3+ are not close to what they are in the first two rounds. 

[Class of '66 Old Fart]

Whalen transferring to U. of Virginia.

[CSP]

Wes Burton did end up getting in the portal. 

[LIHoosier]

 

[LamarCheeks]

2 hours ago, LIHoosier said:

 

Fantastic speech. 

[CSP]

Losing Sinnard is just awful. He is a friggin STUD. UGHHHHHH!!!!! We couldn't have been set up better for next season. 

This takes our ceiling way down. 

[Class of '66 Old Fart]

29 minutes ago, btownqb said:

Losing Sinnard is just awful. He is a friggin STUD. UGHHHHHH!!!!! We couldn't have been set up better for next season. 

This takes our ceiling way down. 

For those not familiar with what's happened, Luke's had elbow surgery related to an injury he sustained in the NCAA tournament against W. VA.

https://www.idsnews.com/article/2023/08/indiana-baseball-luke-sinnard-injury-expected-to-miss-2024-season-elbow-surgery

[Aaron]

1 hour ago, btownqb said:

Losing Sinnard is just awful. He is a friggin STUD. UGHHHHHH!!!!! We couldn't have been set up better for next season. 

This takes our ceiling way down. 

Don't agree. It lowers the ceiling a tad but I still expect the team to compete for the Big Ten title and likely be the favorite. The offense will drive the team and will be the best the squad has had in a decade. They bring everyone back and add Nick Mitchell (OF), AJ Shepherd (C), and Andrew Wiggins (OF) who should all contribute right away in the same way Devin Taylor did this year. Much like 2013 I expect nearly the whole lineup to hit near or over .300. 

The pitching has options but merely needs to be adequate to be a very good team (think Maryland last year). Risedorph should be a solid starter now and it is imperative that Bothwell be the pitcher he was the entire year at the end of 2022 and 2023 and emerge as the ace the team keeps expecting him to be. He has the best arm on the team and just needs to stay out of his own head and learn to be less bothered when things go awry. Also, a host of reclamation projects have come in from the portal just as Sinnard was last year (had terrible year on a bad Western Kentucky team in 2022) and if one of them turns it around similarly team is in good shape. Remember after 2022, none of the pitchers who contributed in 2023 (outside of maybe Kraft and Bothwell who are still there and will again 2024) were even on anyone's radar.   

I still expect the squad to be better than last year. Whether they can compete to host a Regional depends on who emerges on the mound. However, either way I don't expect a year that different from Maryland in 2022 where team wins the Big Ten and is driven by one of the top offenses is college baseball with merely adequate arms.    

[CSP]

9 minutes ago, Aaron said:

Don't agree. It lowers the ceiling a tad but I still expect the team to compete for the Big Ten title and likely be the favorite. The offense will drive the team and will be the best the squad has had in a decade. They bring everyone back and add Nick Mitchell (OF), AJ Shepherd (C), and Andrew Wiggins (OF) who should all contribute right away in the same way Devin Taylor did this year. Much like 2013 I expect nearly the whole lineup to hit near or over .300. 

The pitching has options but merely needs to be adequate to be a very good team (think Maryland last year). Risedorph should be a solid starter now and it is imperative that Bothwell be the pitcher he was the entire year at the end of 2022 and 2023 and emerge as the ace the team keeps expecting him to be. He has the best arm on the team and just needs to stay out of his own head and learn to be less bothered when things go awry. Also, a host of reclamation projects have come in from the portal just as Sinnard was last year (had terrible year on a bad Western Kentucky team in 2022) and if one of them turns it around similarly team is in good shape. Remember after 2022, none of the pitchers who contributed in 2023 (outside of maybe Kraft and Bothwell who are still there and will again 2024) were even on anyone's radar.   

I still expect the squad to be better than last year. Whether they can compete to host a Regional depends on who emerges on the mound. However, either way I don't expect a year that different from Maryland in 2022 where team wins the Big Ten and is driven by one of the top offenses is college baseball with merely adequate arms.    

I don't want to be Maryland from last year, I expected us to be measurably better had we had Sinnard. They couldn't pitch a lick. I agree about Bothwell. 

Sinnard's FR year was when Tim Corbin mentioned how hard it was to be a FR pitcher in the NCAA throwing against 22-24 years olds consistently. 

This lowers our ceiling quite a bit, I think we were going to be THAT good. Top 15 good.

I think we are more like 20-30 now. 

[Aaron]

26 minutes ago, btownqb said:

I don't want to be Maryland from last year, I expected us to be measurably better had we had Sinnard. They couldn't pitch a lick. I agree about Bothwell. 

Sinnard's FR year was when Tim Corbin mentioned how hard it was to be a FR pitcher in the NCAA throwing against 22-24 years olds consistently. 

This lowers our ceiling quite a bit, I think we were going to be THAT good. Top 15 good.

I think we are more like 20-30 now. 

That sounds about right. That is about 5-10 spots which lowers ceiling slightly as I said and not 'way down'. Still Big Ten favorites but may not host a Regional as hoped. Depends on how good Risedorph and Bothwell likely are at top of rotation.

Lots of unanswered questions with staff and worst case scenario you are Maryland of 2022 which is a great floor and best case you are 2021 Maryland who hosted a Regional and was top-15 elite. I'll take that and team is in best position going into a season it has been in a decade regardless.

An already loaded offense adds top transfer Nick Mitchell, top freshman Andrew Wiggins, and top catcher AJ Shepherd who returns from an elbow injury. Fully expect everyone to hit near or at .300 similar to 2013 IU. Question is does pitching bring its ERA down one run to the 4's (which should make it 20-30 as you said) or two runs the 3's (top 15 likely)? Remember they knocked it down from the 7's to the 5's from 2022 to 2023 hence the turnaround season. Now need another run or two off to take next step.

I was planning all along for Sinnard to possibly miss season. Had no insider info but the way he left the Regional holding his elbow I thought he could very well need Tommy Johns and unfortunately that is the case it appears.    

[CSP]

46 minutes ago, Aaron said:

That sounds about right. That is about 5-10 spots which lowers ceiling slightly as I said and not 'way down'. Still Big Ten favorites but may not host a Regional as hoped. Depends on how good Risedorph and Bothwell likely are at top of rotation.

Lots of unanswered questions with staff and worst case scenario you are Maryland of 2022 which is a great floor and best case you are 2021 Maryland who hosted a Regional and was top-15 elite. I'll take that and team is in best position going into a season it has been in a decade regardless.

An already loaded offense adds top transfer Nick Mitchell, top freshman Andrew Wiggins, and top catcher AJ Shepherd who returns from an elbow injury. Fully expect everyone to hit near or at .300 similar to 2013 IU. Question is does pitching bring its ERA down one run to the 4's (which should make it 20-30 as you said) or two runs the 3's (top 15 likely)? Remember they knocked it down from the 7's to the 5's from 2022 to 2023 hence the turnaround season. Now need another run or two off to take next step.

I was planning all along for Sinnard to possibly miss season. Had no insider info but the way he left the Regional holding his elbow I thought he could very well need Tommy Johns and unfortunately that is the case it appears.    

I don't see us in the CWS now. 

I thought we had a damn good chance to get there before this injury. That is a pretty measurable lowering of the ceiling. 

I agree with everything you're saying-- the additions are substantial, you didn't even mentioned the MIF transfer from Houston that will offer some great depth as well.. (and a burner on the base paths).

[Aaron]

1 hour ago, btownqb said:

I don't see us in the CWS now. 

I thought we had a damn good chance to get there before this injury. That is a pretty measurable lowering of the ceiling. 

I agree with everything you're saying-- the additions are substantial, you didn't even mentioned the MIF transfer from Houston that will offer some great depth as well.. (and a burner on the base paths).

I didn't see IU in the CWS before the injury. I thought super regionals was the ceiling with Sinnard and now it is regional final like last year with chance at supers depending on how pitching develops.

Going on the road to a southern team for a best of 3 (IU was not a top 8 team to host regardless) was very unlikely to go well no matter what. Unless there is an upset in your bracket you are not making it to Omaha.    

Even if you host as a 12 though 16 seed (which was the best case scenario is ideal circumstances and still could be and exactly what you had before) you will head on road to a top team like LSU and get pounded in all likely hood no matter what just like UK and every other lowed seed did in this situation. IU's ceiling was certainly not higher than UK's in 2022 at full strength.  

The dead bat era of 2013 and the mid 2010's allowed more upsets for a good power hitting squad like IU back then on road in the 3-14 matchup to advance to CWS. Now with the bats allowing maximum power to everyone again upsets like that no longer occur as often in a best of 3. Now it needs to happen in regionals opposite you or you are dead meat come supers as UK found out. As I said to advance to Omaha you need an upset in the regional bracket opposite you and that still goes with or without Sinnard.   

[CSP]

51 minutes ago, Aaron said:

I didn't see IU in the CWS before the injury. I thought super regionals was the ceiling with Sinnard and now it is regional final like last year with chance at supers depending on how pitching develops.

Going on the road to a southern team for a best of 3 (IU was not a top 8 team to host regardless) was very unlikely to go well no matter what. Unless there is an upset in your bracket you are not making it to Omaha.    

Even if you host as a 12 though 16 seed (which was the best case scenario is ideal circumstances and still could be and exactly what you had before) you will head on road to a top team like LSU and get pounded in all likely hood no matter what just like UK and every other lowed seed did in this situation. IU's ceiling was certainly not higher than UK's in 2022 at full strength.  

The dead bat era of 2013 and the mid 2010's allowed more upsets for a good power hitting squad like IU back then on road in the 3-14 matchup to advance to CWS. Now with the bats allowing maximum power to everyone again upsets like that no longer occur as often in a best of 3. Now it needs to happen in regionals opposite you or you are dead meat come supers as UK found out. As I said to advance to Omaha you need an upset in the regional bracket opposite you and that still goes with or without Sinnard.   

LSU, UF, USM, UVA, WF, TCU, Stanford, Oregon hosted supers..  with Sinnard.. Indiana could have won 3-4 of those.  

Unless you're one of the Top 4-5 teams, I think we could have competed with whoever, whenever next season. 

[Aaron]

7 hours ago, btownqb said:

LSU, UF, USM, UVA, WF, TCU, Stanford, Oregon hosted supers..  with Sinnard.. Indiana could have won 3-4 of those.  

Unless you're one of the Top 4-5 teams, I think we could have competed with whoever, whenever next season. 

There was zero chance IU was beating LSU, UF, WF, Stanford or UVA who were top seeds hosting and were basically top 4-5 teams. All those teams advanced for a reason and no one was taking them down before Omaha. Yes beating USM, TCU, or Oregon was possible since they all were in brackets where upsets were pulled in the regional (or in TCU's case where ISU's administration gifted it to them and gave up hosting). Both those scenarios are the same with or without Sinnard.

As good as Mercer has done there is a reason no northern conference school outside of Michigan has gone to a top southern school and won a super since IU in 2013. It is a once in a decade occurrence and would take an upset of epic portions regardless of Sinnard's status. That was not changing with or without him available. When a team like Oral Roberts advances to a CWS it is because they get lucky and have a bracket open up with the top-16 national seed getting upset and a much easier supers matchup.

IU's chance at Omaha almost certainly rests on that happening. They were not going to be a top-10 national host regardless and even that is no guarantee as elite no. 6 2015 Illinois found out when hosting Vandy in supers. 

IU was going to be really good (and still very well could be) with Sinnard, but not as good as these elite southern schools that host the super regional. Even getting upset by a Stanford (who in retrospect had three legit pros compared to IU's two) as IU did in 2014 as a host is not out of the question when a top power school is in your regional.             

[CSP]

2 hours ago, Aaron said:

There was zero chance IU was beating LSU, UF, WF, Stanford or UVA who were top seeds hosting and were basically top 4-5 teams. All those teams advanced for a reason and no one was taking them down before Omaha. Yes beating USM, TCU, or Oregon was possible since they all were in brackets where upsets were pulled in the regional (or in TCU's case where ISU's administration gifted it to them and gave up hosting). Both those scenarios are the same with or without Sinnard.

As good as Mercer has done there is a reason no northern conference school outside of Michigan has gone to a top southern school and won a super since IU in 2013. It is a once in a decade occurrence and would take an upset of epic portions regardless of Sinnard's status. That was not changing with or without him available. When a team like Oral Roberts advances to a CWS it is because they get lucky and have a bracket and open up with the top-16 national seed getting upset and a much easier supers matchup.

IU's chance at Omaha almost certainly rests on that happening. They were not going to be a top-10 national host regardless and even that is no guarantee as elite no. 6 2015 Illinois found out when hosting Vandy in supers. 

IU was going to be really good (and still very well could be) with Sinnard, but not as good as these elite southern schools that host the super regional. Even getting upset by a Stanford (who in retrospect had three legit pros compared to IU's two) as IU did in 2014 as a host is not out of the question when a top power school is in your regional.             

I don't agree at all with the bold. 

[Class of '66 Old Fart]

Reminder

[Class of '66 Old Fart]

Baseball and softball back for the '28 Olympics in Los Angeles.

https://www.usabaseball.com/news/topic/general/baseball-and-softball-to-be-on-olympic-programme-for-los-angeles-2028-olympic-games