Thoughts on a Season of Highs and Lows, and Noah — Will He Stay or Will He Go?

[IU Hoosier41 14,465]

[quote name="Rayl" post="46763" timestamp="1394650812"]I'm just on mobile. I like it better than the app. Not that the app is bad. It's just that on the mobile browser I can get the fullsite and switch between websites without having to leave the browser app. Personal preference.[/quote]

No worries, we just don't really troubleshoot the mobile site as much as we do the app. If say 95% of our attention goes to the app vs mobile site. Have a feeling this post is because they is a lot of coding going on in the background.


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[mdn82 25,546]

Couple things here.

• The average NBA career is 4 years.  That is true, but I highly doubt the average lottery pick career is 4 years.
• Your Greg Oden example helps my case and hurts yours.  If that same injury his first season in the NBA actually happened in his Sophomore year at Ohio State he wouldn't have been the #1 overall pick.  He wouldn't have made NEAR the money he's made in his career.

My rule of thumb remains, if you are projected to be drafted in the lottery, and have good knowledge that you will be.  The decision should be 100% to go pro.  There are WAY too many intangibles that can affect your draft stock to kick you out of the lottery by waiting.  Play basketball as long as your body will let you, make money off that basketball as soon as you reasonably can.

It is hard to say whether or not Oden gets injured at OSU.  He has had some freak injuries that started in the 8th grade.  As for average career of lottery pick, I could not find any data either way.  I can think of Olawakandi, Eddy Curry, Stromile Swift, Marvin Williams off the top of my head.  I would be willing to match your bet and say outside of the top 5, the bust rate is 50%.  Unless you are an impact talent, your career is less.  By impact, I am saying 20 mpg or more.  Once you hit 20 mpg, you are usually safe (barring injury) to have a long career.

 

http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/2011/11/22/average-nba-career-length-for-players-details/

 

The reason I liked Cody's return after his freshman season, he improved.  People go off of the eye test, but his efficiency as well as every major category improved from freshman to sophomore season.  He improved, and put himself in a better position to be a solid complimentary piece.  He will never be a star.  If he can be a solid 6 or 7th man, he will prove himself valuable.  He also improved his draft stock, and made more money.  Him being a complimentary player and not a star, while coming back gave him a chance to maximize his money making potential.  I would go pro if I were most of these kids.  There are sometimes it makes more sense to put yourself in a better position.  By better position, I mean maturity, work ethic, and some kids just like college.  

 

As for intangibles, you are only thinking of the negatives.  Sometimes it makes sense to look at a draft's strength, and the next ones weakness.  If he has a small stress fracture in that foot or just needs some rest, his stock will hurt in this deep of a draft.  In this deep of a draft if there is any negative of any player it will be magnified immensely.  On the flip side these kids also have to take into account if Silver passes the age restriction Noah will be here 2 more years.  If I were him, I would go unless his foot is really hurt. 

[Rayl 527]

The reason I liked Cody's return after his freshman season, he improved.  People go off of the eye test, but his efficiency as well as every major category improved from freshman to sophomore season.

Sorry, but no.

 

Areas of improvement: OR% DR% BLK% FTRate FT%

 

Areas of Regression: ORtg eFG% TS% TOrate FG%

 

His overall offensive efficiency (ORtg) dropped from 126.8 as a freshman to 119.4 as a sophomore. We can account for some of the drop due to an increase in usage rate, but not all of it.

 

Note: These are Pomeroy numbers. Basketball reference has different efficiency numbers, but they also show a drop overall from 132.1 as a freshman to 124.5 as a sophomore.

[mdn82 25,546]

Sorry, but no.

 

Areas of improvement: OR% DR% BLK% FTRate FT%

 

Areas of Regression: ORtg eFG% TS% TOrate FG%

 

His overall offensive efficiency (ORtg) dropped from 126.8 as a freshman to 119.4 as a sophomore. We can account for some of the drop due to an increase in usage rate, but not all of it.

 

Note: These are Pomeroy numbers. Basketball reference has different efficiency numbers, but they also show a drop overall from 132.1 as a freshman to 124.5 as a sophomore.

Ok, then we need to put things in perspective with these numbers.  His biggest knocks as a Freshman was his rebounding.  He improved that.  eFG% regressed, but his FT rate improved.  Think of the type of player Zeller is/was.  His freshman year he got many baskets just beating his guy down the court.  When you have 2 players constantly getting back to stop put a body on him to slow him down, that happens.  He went to the line at a great clip, which in turn brought his points up.  He figured out different ways to manufacture points, because as you and I both know he wasn't shooting.  His TO rate regressed due to being more of a focal point in the half court.  I mean, if I am wrong there, please tell me.  If you are saying he didn't beat his man up and down the court from freshman to sophomore years, then ok.  That is true.  So yeah, increased usage isn't everything.  The way he was used from year to year does.  Oh, and he went from 62% to 56% from the field.  Hate to bring old school into this, but as a Freshman, that shows where his points were and how much he forced his offense.  Especially when he averaged more as a soph shooting the same FT% and worse from the field.  

[Rayl 527]

Ok, then we need to put things in perspective with these numbers.  His biggest knocks as a Freshman was his rebounding.  He improved that.  eFG% regressed, but his FT rate improved.  Think of the type of player Zeller is/was.  His freshman year he got many baskets just beating his guy down the court.  When you have 2 players constantly getting back to stop put a body on him to slow him down, that happens.  He went to the line at a great clip, which in turn brought his points up.  He figured out different ways to manufacture points, because as you and I both know he wasn't shooting.  His TO rate regressed due to being more of a focal point in the half court.  I mean, if I am wrong there, please tell me.  If you are saying he didn't beat his man up and down the court from freshman to sophomore years, then ok.  That is true.  So yeah, increased usage isn't everything.  The way he was used from year to year does.  Oh, and he went from 62% to 56% from the field.  Hate to bring old school into this, but as a Freshman, that shows where his points were and how much he forced his offense.  Especially when he averaged more as a soph shooting the same FT% and worse from the field.

I'm not going to say you are wrong per se. Overall, I would say he flatlined. He didn't really improve overall, but he didn't get worse either. The big issue for me was that at some point as a sophomore he seemingly forgot that he had other moves in the post besides putting his shoulder down and trying to go through the defender's chest. But, that doesn't really add anything to the discussion about whether he made the right decision to stay or not.It obviously worked out well for him to stay in school another year.

[mdn82 25,546]

I'm not going to say you are wrong per se. Overall, I would say he flatlined. He didn't really improve overall, but he didn't get worse either. The big issue for me was that at some point as a sophomore he seemingly forgot that he had other moves in the post besides putting his shoulder down and trying to go through the defender's chest. But, that doesn't really add anything to the discussion about whether he made the right decision to stay or not.It obviously worked out well for him to stay in school another year.

 

Ha, I don't think he felt comfortable with his other moves.  I missed the easy dunks beating his man down the court.  It really is hard to judge whether or not he would have made a mistake if the drafts were equal.  The draft he went on was terribly weak.  This year, even if he put up 20 and 10, he would have been lucky to be top 20.  As a Frosh he was hovering around 10.  If the drafts were equal (after his frosh and soph years), I wouldn't be surprised to see him drop out of the lottery.  The 2nd year showed games like the Syracuse game, where teams adapted to him, and he couldn't adjust.