Tourney Chances?

[The Ola Depot 1,213]

Although at this point it's very unlikely and chances are falling quickly, what do you think they'll have to do to make the tournament?
I think they'll probably have to win out and pick up a few in the Big Ten tourney. Having four out of the next six being ranked could help tremendously but two of those are away.
At the most I'd say we only have enough room for error for one loss which I think mostly likely happens at Wisconsin. If that happens I say we have to win at least two in the Big Ten tourney.
Or they could just win the Big Ten tourney just to play it safe

[djsalway 4,161]

They have to win out and get to the finals of the Big Ten Tournament... Or they could just lose every game from here until the end of the season and then win the B1G tournament. Auto bid is the only chance at this point.

[CR3AMnCR1MS0N 1,867]

Note: I know some of you have already read this in the Mo Creek thread, but I wanted to put it here because it seemed to fit better.

Think about IF (BIG IF) we were to win 3 out of the 4 or even 2/4 against the remaining ranked opponents and the two against unranked opponents, plus one or two B1G tourney wins. To me that would be enough to get us in.

In my opinion, it seems highly unlikely that the selection committee would leave out a 19 or 20-win Big Ten Team if they have somewhere between 3 and 6 ranked wins in conference. (One example I think of is the 2010-11 Illini team which went 19-13 and 9-9 in the B1G and had only ONE win against a ranked opponent (17 MSU) and still made the tourney as a 9 seed. Iowa last year would be the opposite of this tho, but they missed it because they had NO signature wins.

Something interesting I thought of is that if (again, BIG IF) we made it, we probably would be about a 9 this year. Think how awesome it would be if we got into Wichita's region, probably the Midwest, as a 9 and somehow knocked them off and got to play in the Indianapolis regional. Like everyone else has said, we PROBABLY won't even make it, but I'm not counting us as dead till it's officially over.






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[djsalway 4,161]

Note: I know some of you have already read this in the Mo Creek thread, but I wanted to put it here because it seemed to fit better.

Think about IF (BIG IF) we were to win 3 out of the 4 or even 2/4 against the remaining ranked opponents and the two against unranked opponents, plus one or two B1G tourney wins. To me that would be enough to get us in.

In my opinion, it seems highly unlikely that the selection committee would leave out a 19 or 20-win Big Ten Team if they have somewhere between 3 and 6 ranked wins in conference. (One example I think of is the 2010-11 Illini team which went 19-13 and 9-9 in the B1G and had only ONE win against a ranked opponent (17 MSU) and still made the tourney as a 9 seed. Iowa last year would be the opposite of this tho, but they missed it because they had NO signature wins.

Something interesting I thought of is that if (again, BIG IF) we made it, we probably would be about a 9 this year. Think how awesome it would be if we got into Wichita's region, probably the Midwest, as a 9 and somehow knocked them off and got to play in the Indianapolis regional. Like everyone else has said, we PROBABLY won't even make it, but I'm not counting us as dead till it's officially over.

 

You make a VERY valid point. The problem is the way this team is playing right now. If they play like they have been, no chance we win any of the games.

[Rayl 527]

In my opinion, it seems highly unlikely that the selection committee would leave out a 19 or 20-win Big Ten Team if they have somewhere between 3 and 6 ranked wins in conference. (One example I think of is the 2010-11 Illini team which went 19-13 and 9-9 in the B1G and had only ONE win against a ranked opponent (17 MSU) and still made the tourney as a 9 seed. Iowa last year would be the opposite of this tho, but they missed it because they had NO signature wins.

 

They left out 21-11, 9-9 in conference, 1 win in conference tourney Iowa last season. I have no idea where everyone was ranked in the polls when they played, but Iowa beat some pretty good teams via kenpom: 27 Iowa State, 13 Wisconsin and 26 Minnesota. The B1G was also tougher last season.

 

Right now, the mathematical probability is that we will win 2 more games, but the only game we are actually favored is against Nebraska. Realistically, our tournament chances are very slim.

[Hovadipo 58,253]

[quote name="Rayl" post="40278" timestamp="1392665557"]They left out 21-11, 9-9 in conference, 1 win in conference tourney Iowa last season. I have no idea where everyone was ranked in the polls when they played, but Iowa beat some pretty good teams via kenpom: 27 Iowa State, 13 Wisconsin and 26 Minnesota. The B1G was also tougher last season.

Right now, the mathematical probability is that we will win 2 more games, but the only game we are actually favored is against Nebraska. Realistically, our tournament chances are very slim.[/quote]

I think it's all about the strength of the bubble. The bubble is VERY weak this year. Last year when Iowa was left out, it was strong if I remember correctly.


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[bronkonagurski 894]

Well, if you are keeping the dream alive then the Iowa game is a 100% must win. 

[IUfan_Charlie 3,867]

<10%

[CR3AMnCR1MS0N 1,867]

[quote name="IUfan_Charlie" post="40295" timestamp="1392670698"]<10%[/quote]

Never tell me the odds.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=e9TmXMqJdg4



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