PC Stellar IU/Northern Kentucky sim results

[RaceToTheTop]

10 sim results;  IU wins 9, loses 1 (loss was 83-73.  One other game went OT with IU winning by 10 in the extra session).

Average score:  IU 76.2, Northern Kentucky 62.0

Jackson Davis:  34 mpg, 72/142 from the field (51%), 47/70 free throws (67%), 98 rebounds, 21 assists, 34 blocks, 19.1 ppg

Thompson:  27 mpg, 37/68 from the field (54%), 31/52 free throws (60%), 112 rebounds, 18 assists, 12 steals, 10.5 ppg

Kopp:  28 mpg, 33/72 from the field (46%), 18/31 from three (58%), 21/22 free throws (95%), 35 rebounds, 15 assists, 10.5 ppg

Stewart:  30 mpg, 32/76 from the field (42%), 18/53 from three (34%), 9/11 free throws (82%), 25 rebounds, 15 assists, 9.1 ppg

Johnson:  25 mpg, 40/68 from the field (59%), 13/23 from three (57%), 28/41 free throws (68%), 41 rebounds, 35 assists, 24 turnovers, 12.1 ppg

Phinissee:  16 mpg, 14/51 from the field (27%), 3/19 from three (16%), 5/9 free throws (56%), 15 assists, 3.6 ppg

Geronimo:  14 mpg, 16/33 from the field (48%), 1/8 from three (13%), 5/8 from the line (63%), 64 rebounds, 9 blocks, 6.4 ppg

Bates:  12 mpg, 21/40 from the field (53%), 7/20 from three (35%), 6/6 free throws, 9 rebounds, 7 assists, 5.5 ppg

Leal:  11 mpg, 5/15 from the field (33%), 3/11 from three (27%), 2/4 free throws, 13 rebounds, 7 assists, 1.5 ppg

Durr:  6 mpg, 0/5 from the field, 5/6 from the line (83%), 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 0.5 ppg

TOTALS:  270/570 from field (47%), 63/165 from three (38%), 159/229 free throws (69%).  12.6 turnovers/game.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MikeRoberts]

On 12/19/2021 at 10:19 PM, brumdog45 said:

10 sim results;  IU wins 9, loses 1 (loss was 83-73.  One other game went OT with IU winning by 10 in the extra session).

Average score:  IU 76.2, Northern Kentucky 62.0

Jackson Davis:  34 mpg, 72/142 from the field (51%), 47/70 free throws (67%), 98 rebounds, 21 assists, 34 blocks, 19.1 ppg

Thompson:  27 mpg, 37/68 from the field (54%), 31/52 free throws (60%), 112 rebounds, 18 assists, 12 steals, 10.5 ppg

Kopp:  28 mpg, 33/72 from the field (46%), 18/31 from three (58%), 21/22 free throws (95%), 35 rebounds, 15 assists, 10.5 ppg

Stewart:  30 mpg, 32/76 from the field (42%), 18/53 from three (34%), 9/11 free throws (82%), 25 rebounds, 15 assists, 9.1 ppg

Johnson:  25 mpg, 40/68 from the field (59%), 13/23 from three (57%), 28/41 free throws (68%), 41 rebounds, 35 assists, 24 turnovers, 12.1 ppg

Phinissee:  16 mpg, 14/51 from the field (27%), 3/19 from three (16%), 5/9 free throws (56%), 15 assists, 3.6 ppg

Geronimo:  14 mpg, 16/33 from the field (48%), 1/8 from three (13%), 5/8 from the line (63%), 64 rebounds, 9 blocks, 6.4 ppg

Bates:  12 mpg, 21/40 from the field (53%), 7/20 from three (35%), 6/6 free throws, 9 rebounds, 7 assists, 5.5 ppg

Leal:  11 mpg, 5/15 from the field (33%), 3/11 from three (27%), 2/4 free throws, 13 rebounds, 7 assists, 1.5 ppg

Durr:  6 mpg, 0/5 from the field, 5/6 from the line (83%), 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 0.5 ppg

TOTALS:  270/570 from field (47%), 63/165 from three (38%), 159/229 free throws (69%).  12.6 turnovers/game.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

I appreciate these. Maybe I’m asking too much, but how are these doing collectively? 

[RaceToTheTop]

44 minutes ago, MikeRoberts said:

I appreciate these. Maybe I’m asking too much, but how are these doing collectively? 

I’ve only done it for the last three games.  If it’s done too early in the season, the crested teams suffer from statistics that are created by too few minutes.

The game itself does a decent job of predicting the expected outcomes — thpically about ten sims is enough to see the array of possible outcomes.  Against Northern Kentucky in ten sims, one result was a 10 point NKU win; another was an OT game that IU ran away with in the OT but IU was lucky to even get it in the extra session;  one IU win was close, but the 7 others were decent sized victories.

The IU Notre Dame sims were pretty accurate with winning about 70% of the time by an average score of 67-62.  The actual I believe was 66-58 so it was really close.

[MikeRoberts]

Your sim is 6 points higher than the line on DraftKings - going to bet on you and your algorithm. Bet the over

[RaceToTheTop]

4 hours ago, MikeRoberts said:

Your sim is 6 points higher than the line on DraftKings - going to bet on you and your algorithm. Bet the over

Lot of pressure on me….I wouldn’t bet on myself, but it ain’t my money.

[RaceToTheTop]

8 hours ago, MikeRoberts said:

Your sim is 6 points higher than the line on DraftKings - going to bet on you and your algorithm. Bet the over

Looks like it ultimately worked out despite Northern Kentucky's low scoring first half.  The numbers coming out of the sims figured they could hit enough threes to most likely top 60.  They were ice cold there the first half and red hot the second;  the 10 of 33 is close to their average for the year (they have averaged 10.3 out of 29.5).

[MikeRoberts]

2 minutes ago, brumdog45 said:

Looks like it ultimately worked out despite Northern Kentucky's low scoring first half.  The numbers coming out of the sims figured they could hit enough threes to most likely top 60.  They were ice cold there the first half and red hot the second;  the 10 of 33 is close to their average for the year (they have averaged 10.3 out of 29.5).

Yeah, I was a little disappointed with the first half scoring but Indiana’s “o’lay” defense in the second half got it done.

normally I would be pissed with such a putrid defensive effort in the second half but it got me paid!