Bracketology and Team Resumes

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 9,049]

@Uspshoosier

Is there a team with weirder resume than Minnesota?

[Hoosierfan1901 7,261]

48 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

9 seed is being kind.    I have them right on the last 4 byes range so a 10 seed or even 11 as of today.    Win @Oregon and they will move up for me 

Yea, I was thinking of 11 seed as of today, preferably in the last 4 byes.

[Hovadipo 59,545]

50 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

9 seed is being kind.    I have them right on the last 4 byes range so a 10 seed or even 11 as of today.    Win @Oregon and they will move up for me 

Would you lean toward the OSU game being more of a play-in for the play-in or a play-in for a bye? Seems like it’s going to be a massive game regardless of what happens at Oregon. 

[DoctorP 1,673]

18 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

@Uspshoosier

Is there a team with weirder resume than Minnesota?

I was just looking at their schedule this morning. If they pull out the early season close losses vs North Texas (a good team) and Wichita State they’d be right where we are—maybe better

[DoctorP 1,673]

9 seed seems pretty difficult. Win out and win a game in BTT at the least?
Im hopeful that we can play ourselves (positively) out of Dayton 

[DoctorP 1,673]

22 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

@Uspshoosier

Is there a team with weirder resume than Minnesota?

Oklahoma has to be up there though in terms of weirdness. 4-12 in conference  including some meh losses at home vs LSU and Texas. Stellar OOC

[Uspshoosier 50,654]

4 minutes ago, Hovadipo said:

Would you lean toward the OSU game being more of a play-in for the play-in or a play-in for a bye? Seems like it’s going to be a massive game regardless of what happens at Oregon. 

Ohio st plays Nebraska first.  They are at 16-13.  Ohio st needs to be 4 games over .500 to a chance to be considered for an at-large in my opinion.   The loser of the that game is in trouble.    If iu wins at Oregon they would be in really good shape to be out of the First 4 even with a loss to Ohio st.  All this depends on bid stealers and the bottom of the bubble however IUs late surge have put them in a good spot 

[Uspshoosier 50,654]

36 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

@Uspshoosier

Is there a team with weirder resume than Minnesota?

Dayton possibly 

[Uspshoosier 50,654]

17 minutes ago, DoctorP said:

A lot would have to go right for IU to get a 9 seed. Win out and win a game in BTT at the least. 
Im hopeful that we can play ourselves (positively) out of Dayton 

Same. I want no part of watching them in Dayton 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 9,049]

6 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Dayton possibly 

Why is Villanova considered higher than them? Just some metrics? I guess i haven't looked too deeply at Nova but i know they have 2 bad losses. One being absolutely horrid to Columbia.

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 9,049]

26 minutes ago, DoctorP said:

Oklahoma has to be up there though in terms of weirdness. 4-12 in conference  including some meh losses at home vs LSU and Texas. Stellar OOC

Oklahoma's is wild because of that. Minnesota though isnt considered to be close and they are 6-7 against Q1 and 7-11 in conference. Feel if they were in the SEC, they'd probably be considered in.

[Uspshoosier 50,654]

6 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Why is Villanova considered higher than them? Just some metrics? I guess i haven't looked too deeply at Nova but i know they have 2 bad losses. One being absolutely horrid to Columbia.

That’s a good question. My guess is some predictive metrics are holding them down and they have couple bad losses as well.  Umass loss even on the road is a bad loss 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 9,049]

1 hour ago, Uspshoosier said:

That’s a good question. My guess is some predictive metrics are holding them down and they have couple bad losses as well.  Umass loss even on the road is a bad loss 

Villanova

2-6 vs Q1(Wins over St Johns and Marquette at home)

4-3 vs Q2

6-2 vs Q3

6-1 vs Q4

 

Minnesota

5-7 vs Q1(wins over Michigan, at UCLA)

3-5 vs Q2

0-2 vs Q3

7-0 vs Q4

 

I'm find with Minny not being near the bubble but i guess i don't get Nova. Especially them having 3 losses to Q3/4.

[Uspshoosier 50,654]

4 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

I'm find with Minny not being near the bubble but i guess i don't get Nova. Especially them having 3 losses to Q3/4.

Nova doesn’t have a Q4 loss just a heads up 

[Uspshoosier 50,654]

1 minute ago, Uspshoosier said:

Nova doesn’t have a Q4 loss just a heads up 

Never mind I’m looking at 2024.  Sorry 

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 9,049]

3 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Never mind I’m looking at 2024.  Sorry 

They somehow lost to Columbia who is 265th.

[Uspshoosier 50,654]

13 minutes ago, Loaded Chicken Sandwich said:

Villanova

2-6 vs Q1(Wins over St Johns and Marquette at home)

4-3 vs Q2

6-2 vs Q3

6-1 vs Q4

 

Minnesota

5-7 vs Q1(wins over Michigan, at UCLA)

3-5 vs Q2

0-2 vs Q3

7-0 vs Q4

 

I'm find with Minny not being near the bubble but i guess i don't get Nova. Especially them having 3 losses to Q3/4.

Here is where the difference is 

Nova is 12-11 against the top 3 Quads (unwritten rule for the committee is no team has ever gotten an at large being under .500 against meaningful games (top 3 Quads)

Minny is 8-14 against the top 3 Quads.  Minny is also 1 game over .500 where history tells you an at large better be 4 games over .500 to have a shot.   I think only 7 teams all time have gotten an at-large bid being only 3 or 2 games over .500 and 2 of those were the year after covid where not everyone played a full schedule 

[JHoosier914 1,258]

I apologize if this was said - I don’t get on this board much - but with IU on the bubble, what conference tournaments are we keeping a closer eye on in case a bid stealer wins and shrinks the bubble?

 

TIA

[Uspshoosier 50,654]

1 minute ago, JHoosier914 said:

I apologize if this was said - I don’t get on this board much - but with IU on the bubble, what conference tournaments are we keeping a closer eye on in case a bid stealer wins and shrinks the bubble?

 

TIA

Big West-UC-San Diego 

MVC- Drake 

AAC-Memphis 

WCC-Zags or St Mary’s 

MWC- New Mexico, Utah St, San Diego St 

might be more but I would have to check.  These are the teams you would want to win the tourneys.  If anyone besides these teams win then some bids could be stolen.   

[Loaded Chicken Sandwich 9,049]

30 minutes ago, Uspshoosier said:

Here is where the difference is 

Nova is 12-11 against the top 3 Quads (unwritten rule for the committee is no team has ever gotten an at large being under .500 against meaningful games (top 3 Quads)

Minny is 8-14 against the top 3 Quads.  Minny is also 1 game over .500 where history tells you an at large better be 4 games over .500 to have a shot.   I think only 7 teams all time have gotten an at-large bid being only 3 or 2 games over .500 and 2 of those were the year after covid where not everyone played a full schedule 

I don't disagree that Minnesota shouldn't be considered. I just don't see why Villanova is considered to be so close to getting in. But it's the same for UNC. If UNC was Georgia Tech, they wouldn't even be considered.