Shooter
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Everything posted by Shooter
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I said it earlier. Clearest path is split in LA, beat Wisconsin at home. Then you have the last two as chances to seal it. Just make the damn tourney this year, and next year let's please be discussing potential seeds at this time of year instead of the bubble again.
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Predictive metrics see it differently. MSU at home, Kenpom gives us 37% chance to win. Torvik says 50%. Minnesota game, Kenpom gives the Gophers a 19% chance to win. Torvik 16%. I'm not taking these numbers as gospel but I like them as a rough estimate. Vs Minn, NU, Oregon and @ Illinois and Purdue are more like 80/20 or 20/80 games based on the metrics. Not locks obviously, but it would be pretty surprising if more than 1 of them went differently than we expect it to.
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Yes, I agree. @ UCLA, @ USC, vs Wisc, vs MSU, and @ OSU are the 5 swing games. Need to get 2 or 3 of them
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Agree, but we only have 5 of those "60/40" or "40/60" type games left. Including the next three in a row. So it's not hyperbole to say this next little stretch is crucial to our chances.
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Agree some matchups will be better suited for Conerway. He does things that nobody else on the roster can. But if we are playing a team who's star player is their PG, Enright is a must-play. (see Kansas St and Purdue) At this point though, I think you just start one of them, and Dorn plays as many minutes as fatigue/fouls allow.
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10-10 in conference seems like it'd probably be enough. 11-9 nearly a lock. Home games vs Oregon, Northwestern, and Minnesota need to be Ws. The path outside of those: - Get one on LA road trip this weekend. - Beat Wisconsin at home. That would make 10. And then in the final week of season you'd still have Michigan St at home, and Ohio St away as chances to wrap it up.
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Good point, fatigue is probably part of it. We are also highly reluctant on good execution since we can't really beat anyone off the dribble (especially with Conerway out). But I don't have a good explanation for good free throw shooters missing three straight front end of 1 and 1s. That was disgusting.
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I was there last night... few major takeaways: 1. First real Assembly Hall crowd of the season 2. Conor Enright player of the game. Outstanding defense, don't know how he still had the legs to make that late 3 3. We are still terrible at closing out games. Came very closing to choking that away. Late game execution needs to get way better
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Click below for highlights of Devries in the 2024 MVC Final. This is the game I remember from him. A bit slimmer and scoring in a variety of ways. (This video also includes a confident Conor Enright draining a go ahead 3 in the closing minutes from 3 feet behind the line. We need that guy!) Devries MVC Final
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It's not just B1G athletes. The two games prior to this against Chicago State and Siena, he took a total of 20 threes and only 5 twos. That's a significant change in his shot diet compared to earlier in his career. I am certain you watched him play at Drake more than I did. I wasn't expecting him to be a super athlete, but I was expecting a version of Tucker closer to what we saw vs Marquette. A shooter but also someone who can score inside via smart cutting and attacking closeouts.
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Back in his Drake days Tucker took roughly equal 2s and 3s. This season, more than twice as many 3s as 2s. And it's not only because of higher competition - it's the same story vs the non-con cupcakes. I only watched him once or twice at Drake, but it seems like his athleticism has been sapped a bit with injuries and some extra weight.
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Agree but I'm setting the goal slightly higher. - Take care of business at Maryland and Rutgers - Take two of three at home vs Nebraska, Iowa, Purdue - We probably get smoked at Michigan, but have a slight puncher's chance at MSU. If we are sitting at 6-4 after Purdue we're in great shape. 5-5 isn't a disaster either.
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I'm just saying, part of our offensive issues against good teams is that it's hard to play 4 on 5 on offense. Disciplined defenses will sag off him, not bite on shot fakes and play the pass when he drives. Enright currently occupies a usage category Kenpom calls "nearly invisible" - following the tradition of Anthony Leal and Gabe Cupps in recent years. You are right that he has a decent career shooting percentage. It will help us a ton if he is willing and able to knock down shots when he's open.
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Washington started the game in a triangle and 2 which was pretty crazy. Haven't seen that in a while. Credit to Conerway and Enright for shooting them out of that, but I wouldn't say they ever really came out on Enright. Plenty of possessions he was "guarded" by Steinbach, who was giving him a 10 foot cushion and playing more of a rover role. Triangle and 2 was a bit extreme, but that won't be the last team to play way off of Enright and dare him to do anything offensively.
