IUHoosierJoe
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Everything posted by IUHoosierJoe
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Bracketology and Team Resumes
IUHoosierJoe replied to Uspshoosier's topic in Indiana Men's Basketball
I don’t remember if I posted this here before or on another board, but one thing to note for people discussing how many ranking positions a team rises or drops, each team has a numerical rating value that the NET doesn’t publish. KenPom does publish his numerical ratings, so you can see the reason some teams ranked in the 20s and 30s take a big drop after a bad loss is because they’re so even and tightly packed together in terms of numerical rating values. It isn’t a conspiracy against certain teams, but just the way the math is going to work out. -
IUWBB - News and Notes
IUHoosierJoe replied to Class of '66 Old Fart's topic in Indiana Women's Basketball
I’ve talked to enough Iowa fans to conclude it’s the worst fan base in the country. And that’s saying a lot, given what I think of Purdue’s and Ohio State’s, lol. -
My computer-generated Top 25 through yesterday's games (50% result-based/retrodictive, 50% score-based/predictive) 1 Alabama 2 Houston 3 Kansas 4 UCLA 5 Gonzaga 6 Tennessee 7 Purdue 8 Texas 9 Baylor 10 Arizona 11 St Mary's CA 12 San Diego St 13 Connecticut 14 Kansas St 15 Marquette 16 FL Atlantic 17 Arkansas 18 Indiana 19 Nevada 20 Utah St 21 Xavier 22 Boise St 23 Kentucky 24 Creighton 25 Virginia
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IUWBB - News and Notes
IUHoosierJoe replied to Class of '66 Old Fart's topic in Indiana Women's Basketball
UConn barely squeaked by DePaul this afternoon. Pretty confident if we beat Iowa, especially with a little bit of a margin, we’ll pass them both in the NET. -
I get that Purdue fans and even some members of our own fan base like to take shots at us, but there’s one school that appears in the top 4 twice. It ain’t Duke, North Carolina, or Purdue. F8F54008-2EDC-4156-A7E5-DE9C5D5A7642.webp
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You’ll have to speak for yourself on that one.
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Bracketology and Team Resumes
IUHoosierJoe replied to Uspshoosier's topic in Indiana Men's Basketball
From everything I’ve seen, they have no chance unless they become the automatic qualifier. -
Bracketology and Team Resumes
IUHoosierJoe replied to Uspshoosier's topic in Indiana Men's Basketball
We’re at least 3-0. Beat him twice while he was at Oklahoma and once while he was at Washington State that I remember. -
Well, it’s no Helms Trophy, but still…
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My computer-generated rankings through yesterday's games: 1 Alabama 2 Houston 3 Kansas 4 UCLA 5 Tennessee 6 Purdue 7 Gonzaga 8 Arizona 9 Texas 10 Baylor 11 St Mary's CA 12 San Diego St 13 Connecticut 14 Marquette 15 Kansas St 16 FL Atlantic 17 Virginia 18 Creighton 19 Xavier 20 Arkansas 21 Nevada 22 Boise St 23 Indiana 24 Utah St 25 Iowa St
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Has to be between California and Louisville.
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Bracketology and Team Resumes
IUHoosierJoe replied to Uspshoosier's topic in Indiana Men's Basketball
Yes, not arguing with any of that, just was providing additional info. Morehead State is playing better than they were earlier in the year, granted. But overall, they are not ranked as high as they usually are. The OVC’s ranking as a whole is lower, probably a lot of that has to do with Belmont leaving. -
Bracketology and Team Resumes
IUHoosierJoe replied to Uspshoosier's topic in Indiana Men's Basketball
It's because their schedule strength is computed by taking a simple average of the opponents' ratings, and Elon, Jackson State, and Bethune-Cookman have pretty terrible ratings. And then we're getting burned by teams like Miami (OH) and Morehead State who aren't as good this year as they usually are. -
I hear North Carolina has some classes where you can score 19 out of 16 on exams.
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I was under the impression that Pomeroy removes his pre-season rankings sometime in early January while Sagarin leaves at least a little percentage of his in for the entire season. But in looking at North Carolina for example, who was ranked high in pre-season, Sagarin has them #28 now, which is higher than anybody else. But Pomeroy has them #32, which is also pretty high compared to others. So maybe Pomeroy is leaving in some pre-season ratings.
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Another thing about Sagarin's, I read an interview a few years ago where he said, in addition to making it entirely score-based, he leaves a percentage of his pre-season ratings in all the way to the end of the season because he found it predicted games even better that way. So he is somewhat determining his "computer" ratings with his pre-season ratings.
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My system has Ohio State #39 in the score-based metric and #170 in the result-based. I've never seen that kind of differential, ever. I'm sure most know this, but that differential is what Pomeroy measures in his "Luck" rating. And of course, Ohio State is #363, lol.
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Yeah, I agree. I know the computers don't like them (mine has them #45) because of the non-conference schedule and results. And I wonder sometimes if the voters follow the computers' lead for a school like Northwestern that rarely gets ranked and people don't see a lot. But their Big 10 resume speaks for itself.
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My computer ratings using games through yesterday: 1 Alabama 2 Houston 3 UCLA 4 Kansas 5 Texas 6 Tennessee 7 Purdue 8 Baylor 9 Arizona 10 St Mary's CA 11 Gonzaga 12 Connecticut 13 San Diego St 14 Virginia 15 FL Atlantic 16 Kansas St 17 Marquette 18 Creighton 19 Xavier 20 Nevada 21 Indiana 22 Arkansas 23 Iowa St 24 Oral Roberts 25 Utah St
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I understand what you guys are saying. He knows the game inside and out, and he knows these teams down to most finite detail. But he just talks too much for me. It sounds like this is a three-man crew, and the other two guys can barely get a word in. I can totally understand how a kid he’s coaching would tune him out. It’s just noise after a while.
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My computer rankings through yesterday's games: 1. Alabama 2. Houston 3. Tennessee 4. UCLA 5. Purdue 6. Arizona 7. Texas 8. Kansas 9. St Mary's CA 10. Gonzaga 11. Baylor 12. Connecticut 13. FL Atlantic 14. Kansas St 15. San Diego St 16. Xavier 17. Marquette 18. Virginia 19. Iowa St 20. TCU 21. Utah St 22. Duke 23. Nevada 24. New Mexico 25. Indiana
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My system likes the Mountain West as well. Their results-based metrics are especially good, because of their out of conference success. I have Clemson out (#69), Pittsburgh out (#59). I have West Virginia (#31) in as an 8-seed range. Pittsburgh, though, reminds me of Rutgers last year, as they have 5 wins over my top 50, so I think they'd get in based on that. My system does not like the ACC in general, and having to play Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Louisville won't help the rest of them any.
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Bracketology and Team Resumes
IUHoosierJoe replied to Uspshoosier's topic in Indiana Men's Basketball
I’m with you. The play in games could be a second Big 10 tournament, lol. -
Your system is quite interesting to me. Seems to be a unique way of looking at it, and hard to argue with the results. Pittsburgh is a team I’m keeping my eye on. Their resume is reminding me a little of Rutgers last year. I have them at 67 but they have 5 wins over my top 50.
