Yes, kids want to play in the NCAA tournament, but the reality is that is not close to the most important thing. If Lamar Wilkerson's main goal was winning the NCAA tournament, he would not have gone to IU.
The order of operations, probably looks something like this:
1) How much am I getting paid? (by far most important) 2) How much can the coach develop me so I can get paid at the next level? 3) Am I going to win?
Schools having appeal at 1, 2, and 3 are generally going to be highly correlated, but that doesn't mean #3, or even #2, are truly driving decision-making for most kids.
But in most instances kids are going to come if we pay them more than other schools, that is just how this works. So again, if we are top 25 in roster spend, we should be able to field a top 25 team in terms of talent.
I have no idea if we have an ongoing talent evaluation problem or if circumstances last year were just really difficult (I would lean towards the latter). But if Reed Bailey is making $1.5M and Tucker is making $2M+, which I imagine he is, our ROI is on those players is not very high.
Ultimately, I do agree with you that making the tournament is going to be very important to establishing momentum and will help our recruiting.