lillurk

I think this is the key, and I don’t think it’s some sure thing next year is a step back. (Former 5 star sophs+ are about the best kind of player in CBB.) Feels like a lot of commentary here yesterday — less so today — was prisoner of the moment. If IU plays like that a bunch, we have a lot to worry about. I don’t think it was acceptable but sometimes it happens.

I don’t mean to pour cold water on this discussion, but even after getting thumped today, IU is 17th in Kenpom, which is the 2nd highest B1G team. Assuming health, they may not play worse in a 15 day stretch all year. I’m not making the claim the program is currently elite. But I think the margin between “good but frustrating” and “elite” is pretty thin. Ask UNC. IU has spent too much time toeing the line for most of 3 decades. It really can come down to small differences. E.g. if IU played well and won today, people would be saying stuff like “with JHS, IU is a sleeper title contender” or whatever. And what if they feel off a few in a row and host PU at 18-3 (9-1) on 2/4?

Thinking about the three losses so far. Two of the three are losses I think every team has at some point, even good ones: 1. @ Rutgers, shot very poorly against on the road against a good defense. 2. vs. Arizona, didn’t play well but fought and just lost to a better team. Not excusing either, just saying even the very best teams have a loss like those, basically every year. Heck, if you’re good AND lucky, you probably still have one of each. But today’s loss stings, not because losing @ a good Kansas team is a shame, but because IU didn’t compete smart, consistently, or hard. I think Kansas is good…but nothing about IU’s talent level tells me they HAD to lose today, or be non-competitive. The talent’s still there, and I think the team believes in its coach. I do too. Flush it and learn.

This seems reasonably positive

Kansas is good. Kansas played pretty well. And yet IU could’ve competed with adequate defensive effort and basic offensive execution (limiting insane TOs, converting at the rim). Concerning, and yet if X’s health is okay, this team could eventually turn it around. So that’s what I’m looking for: X’s health, limiting self-lacerating decisions, and effort.

If JHS plays, I think IU has a real shot.

Lovely video, and less importantly I think JHS is visible in practice gear when the camera pans from CMW to DG

This rule surely changed in the 25-plus years since Brian Evans played at IU, right? Watching him run the baseline, even we’ll OOB, is one of my earliest memories watching the hoosiers

Can’t wait for Raftery to say “Geronimo.” Can’t wait for him to make, like, guttural noises of enthusiasm when JHS does something. And as I said in the prediction thread, absolutely can’t wait for Trey to put Kerr Kriisa onto a shipping barge

Since there is no game thread yet, I’m here to predict that Trey Galloway will lock Kerr Kriisa in a shipping container

Kopp is in the strong side corner on clips 1, 2, and 4 here, the clips in which the guard gets to the tin. It’s no accident, you can see him move to get there. Since UNC wouldn’t help off him, AND committed to ICE ballscreens, guards had runway. His shooting creates spacing even when he doesn’t touch it.

Feels like Deion could hold out for a bigger job, and it’s a lateral(?) move for Chadwell

I think there’s something to the idea, though, for a place like IU. Maybe all your NIL goes to QB, OL, DBs or DL.

Here’s one of the two

Two times — well, maybe more than that, but I saw it happen twice — Trey got switched onto Bacot. Bacot took him into the post both times…and didn’t get a touch. Trey should be B1G 1st team all-D this year if he stays healthy. Maybe he doesn’t get it, but he’ll deserve it.

Yeah, I said this earlier but Izzo has six dudes he trusts so far. Two are hurt.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/2022-01-06-19-indiana.html

“First team all-hell” is a good one. Happy birthday, Trey.

Man. Familiar. Not to oversimplify, but shooting is basically the most important skill a player can have, and Archie either didn’t know that, couldn’t develop it, or both. The offense was never a thing of beauty, and the defense never reached the heights he (or others) surely wanted. But the teams were always close enough that if they’d just shot pretty well he’d have won a bunch more games. Alas. IU’s in a better place.

Part of the issue so far is he’s 2/10 at the rim, which I would guess is random statistical noise: https://hoop-math.com/Indiana2023.php by contrast he’s been 6/13 on 2 point jumpers, a much tougher shot. Small guards tend to struggle at the rim, but JHS isn’t small. Still may not be a one and done but if we assume he’d been better at the cup thus far the shooting numbers would look less bad. I was worried about 3s, and 30% out there isn’t great…but if you told me I could lock him in at 30% from 3 for the year, I’d consider taking it.

Pretty great when scholarship players 12 and 13 are non-freshmen guys who’ve looked at least competent. We’ve seen too many Crean- and Archie-era teams give minutes to walkons because that wasn’t the case.

Okay a couple more I meant to mention: 8. Huge deal that Reneau and TJD can play together. 9. related to #5 above, seems like XU has a genuinely quite good offense. So I’m not too worried about IU’s defense based on Friday’s performance. And actually, the offensive performance has me more optimistic about that side of the ball this year l, given they scored pretty well without many guys having strong games on that end.

Ok, some reflections from Friday’s game: 1. You expect role players, especially younger ones, to struggle on the road, moreso early in the year. I’m not worried about JHS, Bates, or Geronimo based on this game. 2. JHS had a nice game EXCEPT shooting. 3. Reneau did all that in 16 minutes. Very few teams have one big as good as he is, let alone more than that. 4. As we might’ve guessed, pretty clear the true rotation is the starters plus Trey, Geronimo, Bates, and Reneau. 5. I think XU is pretty good, as others have said. Seems clear they’ll shoot well but I would also suggest they outperformed shooting expectation on Friday. 6. Conversely IU may have underperformed slightly from 3. Kopp and Thompson, in particular, had open looks they’ll hit more than not and missed them. 7. haven’t mentioned the two stars yet…what’s left to say? Enjoy the ride.

Re the technical discussion, I think the point here is 1. What sort of actions deserve a tech but it has also become about 2. Whether those actions are obvious or less do. I don’t believe X or Malik deserved a tech, nor Freemantle, based on what we know. That is, they fail question 1 above. I.e. there should be no penalty for looking at the opposing bench, nor for barking “and 1” or whatever after you score. Given that, 2 is a moot point.

MSU looks better than I thought, although st this time of year Izzo is usually playing like ten guys or more significant minutes, and he’s a little tighter right now. They’ve got about 6 guys he trusts, two of whom — Hoggard and Sissoko — are also very up and down. Maybe Kohler comes around as #7, but they are not very deep. Fine unless they have injury issues.