lillurk

Yeah, totally fair. If he’s ready there may be backup PG minutes; if he needs some seasoning you can probably stagger JHS and Galloway on nights when you can’t afford to roll a frosh out there.

Yes — most are looking to a player’s ultimate destination in these rankings. For the reasons Wayne mentioned there’s probably a cap on Cupps at like ~50. Seems like a high-floor guy. Like barring injury or other catastrophe, he plays early and often, but isn’t likely to land on draft boards.

Part of the problem of “too many guys want a max” is the payroll cap, tax, and player max structure itself. For instance, on a wins per dollar basis, the very best players are actually worth well over the max to their team. Now of course they’re able to make endorsement $, and are still quite rich, though remember the folks writing the checks are usually far richer. But the max actually tamps down the pay of, say, Giannis or Jokic versus what they’d make in a more flexible structure like what MLB has. The domino effect here is that there’s actually more left in the pool of total player salaries for the fringe all-star types all the way on down to dependable backup Cs, or young players who hit free agency with some track record indicating they could pop a level or whatever. You can imagine a world in which, say, Giannis gets $70M/year, Middleton and Jrue Holiday get close to the current max, and so on. If so, no more than two of those three are Bucks, and some other team would happily pay the third. But there might be much less left for Brook Lopez, Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Bobby Portis, etc., so you can see why the players union — which by percentage is mostly the latter type — prefers the first-team all-league guys take a discount, if that’s what’s on the table from the owners.

Should we assume his presence at team camp, with Ben Davis HS, indicates IU had a head start on other high-major programs?

I wonder how the staffing changes might've impacted things. I still think Demo’s right, that he’s going to take the most high-profile offer. The case the staff can make is that the difference in wattage of exposure is marginal, but the compounded value of being a star in your home state at IU exceeds going elsewhere. And maybe more recent NBA connections at the HC job matter, too.

I could go either way with the Gavitt games. Maybe we’d replace it with a marquee game, but part of the reason it hasn’t been marquee is that IU just hasn’t been great during their run. Other B1G teams have gotten the prime matchups. I assume this year will be different. Its also not during a schedule window that makes IU miss a bigger chance. Later than the tip-off events, earlier than feast week.

Would’ve had a conference 6th man of the year campaign at least once

The NBA Finals participants this year, Boston and Golden State, were first and second in defense, respectively. By now most know that the Kerr-era Warriors’ secret sauce on defense is switching 1 to 4 most of the time, and 1 to 5 when they play a bit small with Draymond at the 5. Boston does much the same; the defensive player of the year, Marcus Smart, is basically who you’d create-a-player as your PG if you wanted someone who could mark Steph Curry and ALSO bump KD or Giannis off a spot. Not a perfect analogy but IU has some similar pieces to each team, grading on a college hoops curve.

@Uspshoosier mentioned in another thread that CMW’s approach has real strength in shorter recruitments, this may be another example.

the contract was for B1G teams to play four or more times in the original 8 year deal. IU has played in 4* of 7 so it’s unclear if they’ll be in this year or not on that basis. However, if you read between the lines from some of the folks who know, I would guess they’re playing one. Four games was the minimum for B1G teams, but the TV networks want more IU games, not more Penn State ones. (Especially when IU is good.) *Creighton 2015, @Seton Hall 2017, Marquette 2018, St. John’s 2021.

Attempting to reverse engineer why CMW would feel that way: 1. Defensively: instantly playable frosh at PF/C are rare if you demand they execute scheme. Long-term, an anchor on that end after Race and TJD. 2. Offensively, polished, versatile, broad base of skill. Maybe he develops into a true three-level scorer, but again: ready to contribute in a necessary role now with potential to grow. 3. Monteverde connection: we’ve discussed. Seems clear CMW values prep academy development. Whether it’s KJ Evans or anybody else, this strengthens that bond. 4. Roster impact: probably frees Geronimo to find time on the wing if he earns it. Softens the blow if top 2023 Cs go elsewhere.

A version of this worked very well for John Beilein, and as assistants go, he may have never had a single one as good at recruiting as Ya or Kenya (Walsh TBD, wary returns promising).

All while Kenya was courtside, lol

This rocks

Yes, glad you mentioned this. I was getting long-winded already :)

Whether all-American or all-_____ team lineups are playable is usually a function of voting requirements. So if the AP all-American ballot just asks voters for POY, 4 other first-teammers, then ten players for 2nd/3rd, the results can lead to 4 PFs and 1 G. I don’t believe most college awards require voters to select based on position, so for example Dickinson, Edey, and TJD we’re all on the B1G 2nd team because they received between 6th and 10th most points. By contrast the NBA requires voting by position for all-league teams. Thus, for example, Joel Embiid was on the second team despite finishing top 3 in mvp voting.

In re: PU guards discussion, I think Ethan Morton’s pretty good. But can we agree that you could summarize lots about the Archie era by recalling that he recruited Ethan Morton as though he was gonna solve lots of backcourt problems for IU?

Yeah, have not seen the post you’re referring to but the multi-year players in the range from “solidly four-star” upwards are incredibly valuable. Occasionally you get a Carmelo or Anthony Davis at the very top, or a Tyus Jones/Justice Winslow/Jahlil Okafor class with sophomore Grayson Allen. But in a lot of ways stacking talent is a volume game: if you’ve got ~8 or more top 75 players across multiple classes on a single roster, you can afford for some to take awhile to develop, others to underperform, etc., so long as you usually hit your evals, develop, and keep ‘em.

I ended last season assuming one or both of Race and TJD would depart, and thus JG was a shoe-in for end-of-year conference 2nd or 3rd team honors in ‘23. I still think he’ll be that good, though the roster may mean he’s an honorable mention, or 6th man of the year, or just one of those dudes who does all the little things on a contender and doesn’t get such recognition.

Tapping the sign

Don’t believe so, not yet at least

At least two of these guys seem a liiiiitttttle too defensive on this. I didn’t see a soul mention names. TJD played on two IU teams (plus HS and AAU teams) before this. No one’s saying your name!

He’s seemed congenial with TJD, even getting a positive mention on the Hysterics podcast. Wonder if fans were tweeting, or friends texting, or there’s some other undercurrent?

I think the way the team played — both tactically and results-wise — at the end of the season is part of the equation too. Tactically, Race finally started making 3s, the offense was far more dependent on X to make plays and reads out of the PNR, Trayce played the best ball of his career, Geronimo was more dependable than ever, Galloway was healthy again. Results: nearly won in Mackey, we’re probably the best or second-best team in the BTT, played well against Wyoming. Forget the St. Mary’s game for a minute. All of that’s coming back. The rest of the tournament teams from the league likely take a step back. IU‘s foundation of TJD, Race, X is very good. It returns some role players we know do some valuable things, including a couple who could potentially grow into starter-caliber contributors. And then it adds a strong freshman class, including two guys who should be ready based on HS experience and scouting consensus.

IMO TJD returning and the roster changes setup nicely for the 5 star frosh to have roles without a ton of downside risk. Like if JHS had to be your clear primary PG and ballhandler…that can work, but it’s just much more comfortable for him to get a bunch of minutes as a secondary one, focus on defending and playing within the system offensively. Same with Malik: if he’s ready for 20 MPG, it’s probably there for him to earn. If he’s not quite, well, fine, 12 will do.