lillurk

DeAndre Ayton one recent example

Now the inverse of the concern is the possibility of something like Conerway, Leal, then any 3 of Dorn, Miles, Harris, and Alexis as a pretty nasty unit defensively that still has some shooting and ball movement, if — big if — one or more of the younger guys really gets after it on that end

One thing I’ll be watching: how often does IU trot out a lineup without at least one of Conerway, Alexis, or (if waiver granted) Leal? Those are the only surefire plus defenders I see at this point. Most others have experience, high bb iq, or athleticism to help on that end, and maybe it won’t be a problem…but there are some pretty likely lineup combos* that could be a serious concern on that end. *e.g. Enright, Wilkerson, DeVries, then 2 of Goode/Harris/Bailey…reasonably likely lineups based just on a back-of-the envelope depth chart.

The Harris bug on Torvik is driving me insane. I’m genuinely glad you’ve mentioned it repeatedly because I know I’m not simply losing my mind

Also has appeared to know the scheme and situation every night even from the bench. He may not want to ever coach, idk, but it wouldn’t shock me.

Same complaint was levied at Enright, who’s good for about 2/3 of 118 in three years and as a sophomore was over 70%. Not Ray Allen from the line but we can’t all be.

Since no one has laid out the math, as far as I can tell his first season is free for COVID, and his 3rd season he played only 11 games and had some injury issues, so the idea would be to get that one back.

For his career and every individual season of it he’s over 60%. Not going to say he’s a good FT shooter, but maybe he can aim for 80%.

He was one of the best defenders in the conference this year and offers a lot of lineup versatility, as he can guard all but the quickest guards of the stoutest posts credibly

I don’t necessarily think Bailey/Alexis/Harris is a bad rotation at the 5 (and of course 2 of those 3 will see time at the 4 too). But the fact they’ve sniffed around other, less offensively versatile screen/dive/block/board/dunk bigs suggests to me they can still add one, despite Tyme et al making hedged suggestions that the roster is basically finished. If you’re looking for a part-time player, 15-20 minutes or less depending on opponent, I don’t think it’s a terribly rare and thus expensive thing.

Does their CMS not hide pre-writes from search engines? That seems like a problem

They absolutely did, Eduardo Andre was 23rd in the country in block rate. He played in every game, started 9, 1.4 bpg in 17.1 minutes. 6’11,” 240. I think there’s probably a spot for a similar player, unless they think Alexis is that. You are right that ball pressure is probably more important to the overall defense here, though, if Harris and Bailey are spending most of the time at the 5.

I’m saying it’s either Curtis or Harris

I assume they’ll have a starting big, they’ve got Alexis as an experienced backup, and then a developmental big who could earn his way into the rotation. Maybe Harris is the starter? If not then they’re both in the developmental role, and even if Alexis and a different starter (Federiko or whomever) both graduate, are they both coming back the following year? I guess it’d be different pre-portal/NIL but now I think 1) they likely won’t both contribute in year one and thus 2) if you have both this year, then one might leave before next year. In which case maybe you take a more experienced guy anyway?

I like both Harris and Curtis well enough, haven’t dug in deeply on either, and I realize they’re different sizes and styles. However, I’m not sure they’d both make sense together.

There’s a sort of logic to playing faster when you’ve got more budget (and thus in theory talent) versus being on par in those areas with your peers at Drake or below average for your conference at WVU. Pace or not, going all in on Randy Foye-era Nova four guard/Oats-style 3>2 is going to be a fun experiment.

As the unofficial “guy who posts lots of Torvik stuff, Fyi, there’s more in the projections than the “talent” rating; this doesn’t mean IU was ranked 3rd at any point last year. Neither the algorithm nor Bart, the person, said as much. This measure tells us what we all knew: IU paid for big time star rankings and a poorly constructed roster. I use Torvik because it shows more during the offseason and is free. As a predictive metric, like Pomeroy, it’s better than the human polls. You don’t have to like it, it won’t hurt me or anyone else, but I hope we can all use it in a way that reflects what it actually says with context.

Agree, it’s fine. Up to 31 after the adds last night.

The handwringing about a starting-caliber center right now reminds me of the period after Enright committed when some were mad because they thought he’d start. Or after Conwell picked UL and Wilkerson took other visits and they sky was falling because we had like three players. The rim running, shot blocking, screen-and-dive center we need is going to look at the roster and see a perfect fit for him. C — it could be you! Feast at the rim with our spacing and passing. PF — Bailey SF — DeVries SG — Wilkerson PG — Conerway bench: Alexis, Enright, Miles, Dorn, Drake, Sisley, (Goode?)

Old news now but I thought the Desmond Claude contact was interesting. 1. probably just due diligence 2. does indicate they probably still have quite a bit of dough to splash 3. wonder if the vision is/was a sort of Swiss Army knife 6th man. 4. more broadly, I think IU’s gonna play teams who’s best player is the best guy on the floor…but IU’s 4th or 5th best guy in most lineups doesn’t look likely to be very weak.

Like others I would be happy to see some underclassmen but I will caution everyone that I’m not sure the old way of thinking about roster building holds any more. It would be nice to see some guys develop, and I think that with regional or in-state prospects that will still make some sense. But if IU pulls a frosh from the east coast, he plays minimally, but then Maryland is convinced he’s worth a mint after his freshman year? Well, all your development and the sunk costs of his year at IU benefit Maryland, maybe even if you’re willing to match his offer.

One note on Torvik and ceiling: if he does it anything like Pomeroy, there are minor program and coach adjustments to preseason rankings. So e.g. the same roster UConn, DePaul, and Wisconsin-Whitewater might not be ranked identically. All that to say there probably is a preseason ceiling for IU if there’s an adjustment based on the recent past.

@RaceToTheTop has a good response but it’s also a choice in methodology. I don’t know if any of the services really explain how they rank, but I know that for 247 football, they’re ranking based on potential/ceiling/projection, which makes some sense here. Alexis is probably capped at “mid-major 2nd/3rd team and all-defense” or “high-major backup.” Cupps and Newton each have 3 years left and could conceivably get to, say, “plus high-major starter.”

Like everyone I'm pleased about this both conceptually and on a player skill basis. I do hope everyone realizes and accepts that this increases game-to-game variance somewhat , though you can mitigate if by ORebs, defense, still being capable of getting to the rim and the line. I can just foresee losing a close road game by 2 while shooting 10/35 from 3 and some folks being grumpy that we “took too many 3s” like a week after we beat a top ten team because we shot 18/38 from 3.

This is crazy because Bart has like 20 full D1 seasons to compare to.