More Analysis: Fret Not Hoosier Nation

Counterpoints:

 

1.  We are now almost 100% guaranteed not to leave Maui with a "good win".

 

2.  Even assuming we avoid a "bad loss" for the remainder of Maui, we lose a ton of non-conference SoS.  That could easily cost us a seed line in March compared to the non-conference SoS boost we could have gotten by getting to the final game in Maui.

 

3.  Tonight was #iubb 2014-2015 Part II, and everyone could see it.  Can't finish close games.  Can't run clock and execute in the half court to defend a lead.  Can't defend.  Head-scratching substitutions.  All of the defending Crean because "it's just one loss in November" misses the point entirely in that this was the year we were told that this kind of stuff was going to be behind us.  This team isn't particularly young.  This team has plenty of players who were highly-considered recruits (and other recruits not as highly considered that Crean nonetheless believed would be successful at IU and, by extension, cause IU to succeed). We heard so much in the offseason that the team had grown, that we were going to have leadership, that everyone was stronger, that we were going to be better and smarter (with experience) at all facets of the game.  Tonight showed in dramatic fashion that we are not.

Counterpoints:

 

1.  We are now almost 100% guaranteed not to leave Maui with a "good win".

 

2.  Even assuming we avoid a "bad loss" for the remainder of Maui, we lose a ton of non-conference SoS.  That could easily cost us a seed line in March compared to the non-conference SoS boost we could have gotten by getting to the final game in Maui.

 

3.  Tonight was #iubb 2014-2015 Part II, and everyone could see it.  Can't finish close games.  Can't run clock and execute in the half court to defend a lead.  Can't defend.  Head-scratching substitutions.  All of the defending Crean because "it's just one loss in November" misses the point entirely in that this was the year we were told that this kind of stuff was going to be behind us.  This team isn't particularly young.  This team has plenty of players who were highly-considered recruits (and other recruits not as highly considered that Crean nonetheless believed would be successful at IU and, by extension, cause IU to succeed). We heard so much in the offseason that the team had grown, that we were going to have leadership, that everyone was stronger, that we were going to be better and smarter (with experience) at all facets of the game.  Tonight showed in dramatic fashion that we are not.

Ok, yes IU loses some of its SoS because of this. But Duke and Notre Dame are still on the noncon schedule. If IU manages to beat even one of those two, the Hoosiers are back in the mix.

Ok, yes IU loses some of its SoS because of this. But Duke and Notre Dame are still on the noncon schedule. If IU manages to beat even one of those two, the Hoosiers are back in the mix.

And if they don't?

And should we be "in the mix" or should we be "clear high seeds"?

And if they don't?

And should we be "in the mix" or should we be "clear high seeds"?

There will be plenty of Big Ten teams to get quality wins off of. I'm thinking Maryland in Assembly Hall in particular. To your second question, I would rather IU go into the NCAA tournament with a lower seed (anywhere from 5-11) because then they would need to prove themselves in the NCAAT. I think IU is more of an upset type team than a ride the high ranking team, and it's been that way for the majority of the years since the '76 team, with the exception of the '87 squad of course.

There will be plenty of Big Ten teams to get quality wins off of. I'm thinking Maryland in Assembly Hall in particular. To your second question, I would rather IU go into the NCAA tournament with a lower seed (anywhere from 5-11) because then they would need to prove themselves in the NCAAT. I think IU is more of an upset type team than a ride the high ranking team, and it's been that way for the majority of the years since the '76 team, with the exception of the '87 squad of course.

Didn't Vonleh's team show how meaningless big wins in the Hall are to the committee? Especially if you can't win away and neutral games.

And that may be a poetic idea, but statistics show you're much more likely to make a Final Four with a better seed.

Didn't Vonleh's team show how meaningless big wins in the Hall are to the committee? Especially if you can't win away and neutral games.

And that may be a poetic idea, but statistics show you're much more likely to make a Final Four with a better seed.

I see your point, but Vonleh's team had a whole other set of issues. It went 3-10 on the road. Its road wins were Washington, Northwestern and Penn State. That screams "yikes" to me. If that team would have won two more road games it would have been a tournament team.

 

Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State are all road games for IU this year, and I say win two of those three and it makes up for a "bad loss" to Wake in Maui. Duke is also a true road game, and if IU can get its stuff together by then, I could see both powerhouse offenses running down to the wire. And even a close loss in Durham would look better than nothing.

 

In terms of tournament play, I don't think that people should be expecting IU to make a Final Four unless there are some major changes on both sides of the floor. Even the No. 1 seeded IU team with Zeller and Oladipo couldn't do that and they were arguably the most talented team since 2002. They spent a lot of that season ranked at the top, and things didn't work out. I think expecting any team to be in the top four of the 351 programs is a stretch.

I see your point, but Vonleh's team had a whole other set of issues. It went 3-10 on the road. Its road wins were Washington, Northwestern and Penn State. That screams "yikes" to me. If that team would have won two more road games it would have been a tournament team.

Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State are all road games for IU this year, and I say win two of those three and it makes up for a "bad loss" to Wake in Maui. Duke is also a true road game, and if IU can get its stuff together by then, I could see both powerhouse offenses running down to the wire. And even a close loss in Durham would look better than nothing.

In terms of tournament play, I don't think that people should be expecting IU to make a Final Four unless there are some major changes on both sides of the floor. Even the No. 1 seeded IU team with Zeller and Oladipo couldn't do that and they were arguably the most talented team since 2002. They spent a lot of that season ranked at the top, and things didn't work out. I think expecting any team to be in the top four of the 351 programs is a stretch.

Right. Except the expectation with this team early in the year was a possible Final Four and likely Elite Eight. If the minimum expectation with a team dripping with as much talent as this group is another Sweet Sixteen then why are we wasting our time?

And I don't understand your last sentence. Are you saying no program should have Final Four expectations? Duke or Kentucky fans this year are stretching to think they have a top-four program?

Right. Except the expectation with this team early in the year was a possible Final Four and likely Elite Eight. If the minimum expectation with a team dripping with as much talent as this group is another Sweet Sixteen then why are we wasting our time?

And I don't understand your last sentence. Are you saying no program should have Final Four expectations? Duke or Kentucky fans this year are stretching to think they have a top-four program?

I think expecting a team to reach the Final Four is too much to ask for. Hoping for that is fine, but expecting that is a little excessive if you ask me, even for the best programs. Upsets happen all the time (UK last year?) and crush dreams, but those dreams should never be expectations.

 

In terms of the expectations of IU at the beginning of the season, I never had the Final Four on my radar. I didn't think that the addition of Bryant and a year of practice would fix the defensive issues that exist in Bloomington.

I think expecting a team to reach the Final Four is too much to ask for. Hoping for that is fine, but expecting that is a little excessive if you ask me, even for the best programs. Upsets happen all the time (UK last year?) and crush dreams, but those dreams should never be expectations.

In terms of the expectations of IU at the beginning of the season, I never had the Final Four on my radar. I didn't think that the addition of Bryant and a year of practice would fix the defensive issues that exist in Bloomington.

So like, no expectations of any team? No one can evaluate the talent on their team and compare it to other teams to make conclusions about their teams ability to beat those teams?

What's the point of doing any analysis then? How do we think about goals and the future? Is it unfair of me to expect them to beat a bottom of the ACC team? Can I expect them to win a bunch of individual match ups? If so, when do I have to stop? Won't my single game expectations eventually fill a whole season and maybe post season?

Isn't the entire definition of an upset an unexpected result? No one would be upset if we didn't have expectations. Ken Pom's whole system is based on winning expectations. Is that wrong too?

So like, no expectations of any team? No one can evaluate the talent on their team and compare it to other teams to make conclusions about their teams ability to beat those teams?

What's the point of doing any analysis then? How do we think about goals and the future? Is it unfair of me to expect them to beat a bottom of the ACC team? Can I expect them to win a bunch of individual match ups? If so, when do I have to stop? Won't my single game expectations eventually fill a whole season and maybe post season?

Isn't the entire definition of an upset an unexpected result? No one would be upset if we didn't have expectations. Ken Pom's whole system is based on winning expectations. Is that wrong too?

First of all, I'm not saying that no one should have expectations. I'm saying expectations need to be reasonable, while dreams and hopes can be set high. Final Four appearances are not exactly reasonable in most cases for expectations.

 

Secondly, KenPom's system is based on winning projections. It's all percentages to win. It's probability, chance and statistics. It's not expectations. I have a lot of respect for the KenPom system because it is statistically based. Everything in that program is based on numbers and probability, which I admire.

 

That said, Wake Forest is not a bad team. You claim they are "bottom of the ACC" but according to KenPom they are still a top-70 quality team, which makes me believe that the ACC is deep from top to bottom. It's stacked at the top, that's no question. But down at the bottom there are programs that have done well in the past (i.e. NC State) and I see no reason to think that Wake isn't a team that can make some noise in their noncon season, which they have already done so.

First of all, I'm not saying that no one should have expectations. I'm saying expectations need to be reasonable, while dreams and hopes can be set high. Final Four appearances are not exactly reasonable in most cases for expectations.

Secondly, KenPom's system is based on winning projections. It's all percentages to win. It's probability, chance and statistics. It's not expectations. I have a lot of respect for the KenPom system because it is statistically based. Everything in that program is based on numbers and probability, which I admire.

That said, Wake Forest is not a bad team. You claim they are "bottom of the ACC" but according to KenPom they are still a top-70 quality team, which makes me believe that the ACC is deep from top to bottom. It's stacked at the top, that's no question. But down at the bottom there are programs that have done well in the past (i.e. NC State) and I see no reason to think that Wake isn't a team that can make some noise in their noncon season, which they have already done so.

KenPom's entire ranking system is based on expectation to win against an average team. That's what the Pythagorean win percentage is. If they played an average team they would win [%] of the time. It's absolutely based on expectations.

Wake is a team we should have beaten by 15. Whatever post-hoc "they're better than we think" makes you feel better is fine. But, they are not a team that should have even given us a tense game.

It's realistic to expect a team with as many high-level players as we have to be able to handle a team even in the top-70 who is missing their leading scorer. That game was an embarrassment. And that game absolutely put us in a worse position for the tournament, seeding, and rpi. If that's ok with you because we were never going to be successful anyway then... That's your burden to bear. Hope you enjoy watching a team you don't expect anything from. At least all the positives will be a pleasant surprise.

I think expecting a team to reach the Final Four is too much to ask for. Hoping for that is fine, but expecting that is a little excessive if you ask me, even for the best programs. Upsets happen all the time (UK last year?) and crush dreams, but those dreams should never be expectations.

 

In terms of the expectations of IU at the beginning of the season, I never had the Final Four on my radar. I didn't think that the addition of Bryant and a year of practice would fix the defensive issues that exist in Bloomington.

 

Once upon a time, we did start every year expecting to reach the Final Four. 

If I were a fan of a program coached by an Izzo, coach K, or that slime down south I would be fine with saying "it's just a loss in November."  However, we've seen this act one too many times.  If I had any faith that CTC could get through to his players and make them a better team I wouldn't worry much. 

 

We have 3 McDonald's All America on the roster, another one close in a Jordan Brand AA.  Two are upperclassmen making the same mistakes they have their entire time at IU.  What gives you confidence that they will actually learn from this loss?  They're not being held accountable for their poor play by their coaches or their teammates.  That creates an environment for inconsistent players and inconsistent teams.  How many times will people be fooled by this?

Here's another point of view on IU's 82-78 loss to Wake Forest on Monday. IU student Aaron Johnson thinks that one loss isn't the end of IU's potentially good season. He explains his thought process here.
Sure, Indiana lost to Wake Forest on Monday, but Hoosier fans should not fret.

I was as shocked as anyone that the Hoosiers fell to the Demon Deacons 82-78 in Maui, Hawaii, but I am here to say that it’s not as big of a deal as everyone thinks.

My Twitter feed was full of derogatory tweets directed at the program and at coach Tom Crean, but I had to do everything I could to not yell at everyone to cool their jets.

It’s November.

IU lost to unranked Butler in December of 2012 and that year the Hoosiers were much more talented in my opinion. They later traveled to the NCAA Tournament, reaching the Sweet 16 and a 15-5 Big Ten record.

I’m thinking this is the same kind of situation. Wake Forest did not look terrible on Monday and I would not be surprised if they are close to the Top 25, if not breaking into the polls, come next week.

Just to give some perspective, Miami (FL) jumped all the way from unranked to No. 15 in the polls, just from knocking off Utah and Butler, both of which dropped out of the rankings entirely.

So let’s look at some positives from Monday night, because I do think that the positive speak about what we can expect heading forward.

Max Bielfeldt commanded more in the post than Thomas Bryant did. The transfer from Michigan put up 11 points in 23 minutes down low. I’m jumping on the Bielfeldt bandwagon, because he is going to be a good backup if Bryant is having problems.

Troy Williams put up 16 points, which is always fun to see, but I was more impressed with Robert Johnson coming off the bench to record 14. Johnson got 25 minutes of playing time, two more than James Blackmon Jr., who played horrendously throughout. Based on tonight alone, I would like to see Johnson rotate into the lineup a little more often moving forward.

The turnover conundrum did not look quite as terrible on Monday, as the Hoosiers only committed 14, which is down from the average of 18 per game. It’s not great yet, but it’s progress. I would however like to see it below the average from last season: 12. If the turnover average were below 12 per game, it would be the best of this millennium and that would be a fun milestone to watch IU make.

I would go into depth about the improvements that need to happen, but everyone has read the issues of Monday night at length in Terry Hutchens’ article.

So, don’t worry Hoosier Nation, IU will be back to its winning ways soon enough.

Let me know what you think this loss means for IU. Leave some comments and we’ll have a discussion!
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lol the Butler loss when we were ranked number 1 in the counrty? Then we made the sweet 16 as a 1 seed and got decimated by cuse and looked like clowns doing it. I feel better already. Lol

I'm not sure how anyone knowing that Tom Crean is still IU's coach thinks this team is going to be better, or lack of a better term "different", than last year's team.

lol the Butler loss when we were ranked number 1 in the counrty? Then we made the sweet 16 as a 1 seed and got decimated by cuse and looked like clowns doing it. I feel better already. Lol

Yeah, not sure how they're making a point there either.

Ok, yes IU loses some of its SoS because of this. But Duke and Notre Dame are still on the noncon schedule. If IU manages to beat even one of those two, the Hoosiers are back in the mix.

Can I fret yet?

Can I fret yet?

Check back in March

It's 1 2 losses in November, looked like crap in each game in Maui, oh and Crean is still coach.  But don't fret.

Check back in March

So wait, like, we have to pretend everything is OK until the season is actually over? Then do we have to wait until next year?