Aaron

You lost five of the the top six seeds yesterday. This is far from an IU problem. Either the NCAA needs to reform to year round as US Soccer, Todd Yeagley and Sasho Cirovski have been pushing or have a blind draw tournament and take RPI out. Current model is unsustainable and 1-48 are basically the same. The product on the field is not good because the top players don't go to college. IU is amongst the best of what's left, but right now you have the defense of a FIFA video game. I used to marvel at watching IU. Now I feel like I am watching the IU Indy team of several years ago I did not enjoy. This is no knock on IU who has done nothing wrong and Yeagley is getting the very best of what is left. Its the NCAA not listening to its two most legendary coaches and has caused random champions and hard-to-watch product. College baseball had this crisis 20 yrs ago and has adopted quite well to getting a lot of the best talent into the sport again. Now its soccer's turn to do same or we will see more random unseeded Vermont's winning title like we did last year who will feel unworthy. Its a really good thing IU's eggs and top teams are not entirely in soccer anymore since sport is becoming irrelevant through no fault of its own and doing very best it can under current constraints NCAA has hamstrung it with.

Lack of urgency in the second half. The game was a microcosm of the season. Teams realized by the end that if you take Ault away, little happens. The results of the season were similar to 2014, and the team was built much like 2010 with Bruin. An offense can win you a title, but defense and a goalie can lose you the first game. The latter happened when you were a one-trick pony. It can get you far, but not all the way.

There was always the chance the offense could win them a title, or the defense and goalkeeping could cost them their first game. Right now, they have one half to try to keep it from being the negative one. Regardless, they must find a top-level goalie and a couple more backline players in the offseason. SLU is the anti-IU with an elite D and goalie, and minimal attack. While Brown and the SLU goalie had similar chances with tough but savable shots, the SLU guy made them all, and Brown could not bail his side out and reason it is 1-0 bad guys. While the D is the primary culprit in the goal, the lack of being able to be bailed out by a top-flight keeper, as SLU was, is the difference. Whether it is Michelle who has promise but is raw, or a portal or elite freshman guy, this level of keeping meets many sides' standards, but not IU. If the Hoosiers want to remain elite, this is a must-fix. The evaluation of Brown I see with his size, but it was a clear misevaluation for the elite awareness needed and must be addressed in the offseason to be a serious contender. Not mad at IU, but a clear upgrade and correction is needed to be a serious contender going forward as well as plugging a hole or two on the backline. While ideally you want both size and awareness, I'll take Harms' awareness last year and lack of size over Brown's inverse any day. Brown is a finished product who rivals only Souderland in 2013 and Caulfield in early 2019 in terms of awareness issues. Michelle is either that or Louis Soffener, who was awful his first couple of years due to Freitag being an awful coach, and Yeagley developed him into a top-level goalie by the end. We will know by next year if Michelle has the awareness and if he does Yeagley will get it out of him.

I was pretty close on my predictions but not perfect. Great draw and first game will be a rematch with a team IU has already beaten. When I saw San Diego announced at the nine seed early, I was fairly confident Hoosiers would get that Top-8 as I knew Bryant was falling beyond 10 with their poor metrics despite elite RPI. With tournament regionalized and them announcing UK and SLU above IU first as the feed in game, I was very confident that IU was being put at 6 before the official announcement. Also, having mid-majors powers all the way through or a home game in Elite Eight is ideal. That first game with rematch is almost certainly toughest game of the tourney until College Cup if IU makes it. Taking on the aforementioned paper tiger Bryant in Sweet 16 is ideal if they make it that far but could be upset by Seton Hall who is probably a better and more tested squad (doubt Sienna is good enough to go anywhere if they beat Seton Hall). Elite Eight in worst case scenario a trip to a mid-major power in Princeton (who is a legit mid-major unlike Bryant but still rather play them then an ACC, Sunbelt, Big East or Big Ten squad again which are the power conferences in soccer). However, an upset by Akron which is possible, or one of the unseeded squads (Duke, Notre Dame, FDU Duke) allows Hoosiers to host if they make it that far as Tigers draw is brutal compared to IU. One thing to note is if IU gets this far and gets to host the Elite Eight, fitting a game in between volleyball's likely NCAA hosting, and IU's games against Ohio State and Louisville in football and basketball on that Friday or Saturday will be quite the juggling act for Indiana but one no one would complain. While anything can happen, this is first time since 2022 when they lost in national title game where I can easily see a path to College Cup without anything crazy happening. Having that guaranteed second home game with victory for the first time since 2019 is also huge. As I have said, I could see offense winning IU a title or the lack of goalie or defensive play causing a loss to UK or SLU which I will continue to believe is toughest game until the College Cup given the familiarity and draw. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________ As for how it was seeded compared to what I thought I was close but not perfect with Top 16 (parenthesis is actual seed): 1. Princeton (3) 2. Vermont (1) 3. Virginia (2) 4. SMU (5) 5. San Diego (9) 6. Maryland (4) 7. Georgetown (7) 8. Portland (8) 9. IU (6) 10. Bryant (11) 11. Akron (14) 12. UConn (13) 13. Stanford (12) 14. Seton Hall (No Seed, Highpoint was 10) 15. NC State (15) 16. Marshall (No Seed, Furman) They used Top 16 to a tee for seeds which is rare and was wrong about the bumping of Highpoint and Furman out which were the big misses by me. Biggest other miss was over seeding San Diego by four spots. Thought their metrics were excellent and they won their conference tourney so surprised they fell. Everything else is within a couple of seed lines or so and pretty much what I thought.

Selection Show 1pm today on NCAA.com Expect IU to be the 8-10 seed. RPI is ten. Top seven based on metrics will likely be in some order: 1. Princeton 2. Vermont 3. Virginia 4. SMU 5. San Diego 6. Maryland 7. Georgetown These seven have top nine RPI's and metrics in the top 40 with their SOS and OSS and all but Virginia and Maryland won their conference tourney. The eight, nine and ten Seeds will almost certainly come down to: 8. Portland, IU, and Bryant That coveted eight seed and second guaranteed home game will likely come down to Bryant's six RPI but 38 SOS and 83 OSS, vs. Portland's eight RPI but 50 SOS and nine OSS, and IU's 10 RPI but four SOS and 13 OSS. None won their conference tournaments. Objectively, if I had to predict Portland's metrics are the most balanced but its close so I would go: 8. Portland 9. IU 10. Bryant (Note they could fall a couple spots lower even but only other team who has case for top eight) Note they may flip Portland and Georgetown for geography with Georgetown having RPI one spot higher. Rest of top 16 will likely be based on metrics: 11. Akron 12. UConn 13. Stanford 14. Seton Hall 15. NC State 16. Marshall Furman and High Point despite being Top 16 in RPI will likely be bumped and replaced at 17 and 18 by Seton Hall and Marshall due to much better metrics. We will see soon if I am right: https://rpiupdatemenssoccer.blogspot.com/

Can I remind people this team actually lost these same games last year to Harvard and Butler and figured it out? While Marshall is not quite as strong as these two, Moren teams have a tendency to correct issues and get better as year goes on. A season similar to last year seems reasonable as a back end tournament team. If the team can beat some of the better competition upcoming they are actually ahead of last year with close wins rather than bad losses in games two and three. What we can say is Spreen, Kiaku (which doesn't surprise me) are not good enough to play at this level and this will once again be the tight eight person rotation that is Moren's signature with Shay, Caffey, Z, and Lenee as starters with Valentina or Makalusky playing off the bench with the other starting along with Phoenix and Odessa. Also we might see Faith from time to time. This is a typical Moren squad and once it matures and adds the elite recruits program should be fine.

They will very likely match the rankings. You already see it with Caffey and Makalusky being higher ranked than previous recruits and two of next years are even higher. Those rankings are not perfect but very good guides similar to a weather forecast and with two top-40 players this year and two top-30 next year the difference will be noticeable. This is how it is supposed to work with recruiting when winning and it took Moren coming to terms that her culture was not an end-all be-all for recruiting and NIL is needed and also replacing an ineffective assistant with effective one. Most coaches when they start winning don't have to look in mirror at how they run things. Moren did and glad she made the necessary changes or this program was heading off a cliff. Now it's in good hands again.

Not really. Especially with all the second-tier international players infiltrating college soccer. It's why random mid-majors have suddenly become elite.

11 teams in men vs. all 18 in women. Both exclude about same number of teams for this year. Men was top-eight till now but was condensed down to four for some reason this fall.

Totally different. In 2013, IU had to win the Big Ten Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament and was the only time finishing below .500 overall since going varsity in 1973. They then lost in the first round on the road and one of only three times they were not seeded in the last couple of decades and only time since 2001 without at least one home game in the postseason. This time, they will absolutely be seeded with a top-10 RPI and undefeated in non-conference. The only question is if they can get a top-8 seed and get that second home game for the Sweet 16. The round of 32 is a locked-in home game. The year you should compare not to 2013 but one year later, in 2014. In 2014, they ran the table in the non-conference and were mid-pack in the Big Ten, but got a very high NCAA seed off the non-conference games, which will happen again. However, don't want to repeat the NCAA results as the Hoosiers were upset by Xavier in the round of 32, and this is the last time they didn't win a postseason game and make at least the Sweet 16. Could literally see the squad use their scoring to get to the college cup, or the struggling backline and goalie knock them out in the first game. Both outcomes are equally likely for this iteration of the team. You may have also meant 2012 when the team struggled down the stretch, but won their last national title by getting hot in the postseason. That team was the final one earning a seed at no. 16. I expect them to be inside the top-10 this time, if not top-8, for that second home game to be guaranteed.

See everyone for the NCAA Tournament. IU will still host at least one game and maybe two, as they are right on the fringe of the top eight. The Big Ten Tourney has zero to do with NCAA seeding. In general, though, college soccer is not fun to watch right now. The talent drain and basically no defense across the board feels like watching the FIFA Video game instead of real soccer, with the amount of scoring and easy shots. While I love cheering for IU, watching the sport at the college level is painful. Either the sport needs to listen to the USA Soccer Federation and work with them to take their recommendations to get the top talent again, or fold up shop. Right now product is unbearable, and this is no fault of Indiana. They get the top talent of those making it to college, but that starts pretty far down the rankings.

Michigan is most relevant and equivalent example in Big Ten right now.

That could be a reason and legitimate. However, would you have dropped if team was ranked and won nearly 30 games. If you were going to drop anyways you may have hit on a factor. If being less then excellent caused you not to renew and would have otherwise, that is something you are certainly entitled to do but that behavior (better or worse) sheds some light on how fan base thinks. Don't blame you for your specific case. We would need to hear from others and cross reference with other schools to find the smoking gun for this pattern but your particular case def sheds a tiny bit of light.

Michigan has all the buffet of sports options as Indiana and lost no season ticket holders for its women's basketball program after one good season that was slightly less than others. Its a conundrum that the athletic department has to figure out. Nowhere else loses 30-40% of ticket holders over a women's season like last.

This survey is important since no other school wins 20 games and loses mass numbers of season ticket holders. There is clearly something unique about our fan base being more front running than others. Our athletic department needs to get to bottom of it if it does not want to lose a large percentage of season ticket holders after good but not great seasons when nowhere else does.