BottomLine

On paper IU doesn't win this game.  So, the smart thing to do is to pick Penn State.  However, I don't think it matter any longer.  I don't think I've been out of the top 5 all year but I'm not going to catch fwgreenway.  Unless he gets a sever case of the dumbs, he is going to win this season pulling away.  Great job all year.  If we were in a chess match I'd conceed. I guess I am conceeding. Taking a look at all the picks that are in so far, I think most of you agree.  I hate to pick against the Hoosiers and then root for them to win.  No fun in that and nothing to be gained
Now on to the actual serious business of making a selection.  Very interesting pattern for Indiana this year.  When we are competitive we usually win.  When we are going to lose we lose big.  I don't care what the spread is for the game that pattern has held almost all season.  I'm a pattern guy, if you haven't guessed.  We have 15 Big 10 games in the books and only 4 have been decided by 6 points or less Maryleand -1, Michigan State +4, Northwestern +4, and Nebraska +6).  That is why this team has been so frustrating.  We have too many games where we just weren't competitive.
Against common opponents PSU is 15-8 and we are 13-12.  Against teams with "Like" ratings we are 8-9 and they are 12-6.  IU is 13-3 at home and Penn State is 5-3 in away games.  We average scoring 76 points/ game and Penn State averages 72.  We both average giving up 68 points/game.  Penn State won 8 games in a row in the Big 10 before stumbling against Illinois in their last.  We all know how well IU have been playing.  You have to give the edge to Penn State.  That is why they are ranked and we are not even close.  Penn State puts up between 20 and 25 3's/game and in their last three have hit 14-11-4.  the four was against Illinois and so we know why they lost that game.  So, duh, if we want to win this one we need to guard the 3-point line and force a repeat of the Illinois result.
So, all of that said, I'm climbing out on a limb today and predict that the baskets and refs will be friendly to the Hoosiers.  At least I can enjoy the game and not worry about standings.
Indiana 80 - Penn State 72

Starting to get the feeling that it is time to stick a fork in these Hoosiers.  They may be done.  Minnesota is 12-12 on the year but 10-3 at home.  Yes they may be as bad on the road as the Hoosiers.  We are 16-9 but only 1-6 away from home and struggling.  We don't even lose close on the road.  To the point we suck on the road!
We have the ability to win this game but something is really sour on this team.  Might be the coaching.  Might just be poor chemestry.  Could be that too many just don't really care to put up the fight that is needed.  Hate to pick big against the Hoosiers but it is what it is.
Minnesota 80
Indiana 68

Us- 103
Them- 72
Let's go Big Red!!!!

Another fork in the road game.  I'm still kicking myself over the Purdue game.  Everything in my head said to pick the Boilers but my heart saw it the other way.  Drats!  Another opportunity lost.  Thing is I'm about to do it again.
On paper this is Iowa's game to lose.  I know they are only 3-5 on the road, while IU is 12-3 at home.  But Iowa can score the basketball and the Hoosiers are struggling, even with home cooking.  According to Sagarin Iowa is 3-5 against the top 25 and IU is 2-4.  Against the top 50 they are 8-5 while we check in at 4-7.  Doesn't look good for the Hoosiers.  Indiana is 9-12 against common opponents while Iowa has a winning record at 11-10.  Against "like" opponents Iowa is 10-6 and IU is 6-8.  Basically Iowa is a better team based on records.
We are dragging a four game losing streak into this one and are starting to see our tourney chances start to dwindle.  I guess you could say that we have our backs up to the wall and we desperately need to win this game.  I feel that.  Do the players?  Do they even care?  The doubts are growing.  Don't we all wish we had that Maryland game back?
I'll ignore my head again (never a good thing) and go with my gut feeling that the Hoosiers are going to play well in this one.  I'm counting on the Iowa defense to be the Iowa defense and we can jump start the offense in this one.
IU 79  Iowa 75

FWIW, I'm taking one for the team and went with Iowa on the moneyline so that pretty much guarantees a Hoosier victory the way it's been going for me lately!  You're welcome! 
Go Hoosiers!

Another fork in the road game.  I'm still kicking myself over the Purdue game.  Everything in my head said to pick the Boilers but my heart saw it the other way.  Drats!  Another opportunity lost.  Thing is I'm about to do it again.
On paper this is Iowa's game to lose.  I know they are only 3-5 on the road, while IU is 12-3 at home.  But Iowa can score the basketball and the Hoosiers are struggling, even with home cooking.  According to Sagarin Iowa is 3-5 against the top 25 and IU is 2-4.  Against the top 50 they are 8-5 while we check in at 4-7.  Doesn't look good for the Hoosiers.  Indiana is 9-12 against common opponents while Iowa has a winning record at 11-10.  Against "like" opponents Iowa is 10-6 and IU is 6-8.  Basically Iowa is a better team based on records.
We are dragging a four game losing streak into this one and are starting to see our tourney chances start to dwindle.  I guess you could say that we have our backs up to the wall and we desperately need to win this game.  I feel that.  Do the players?  Do they even care?  The doubts are growing.  Don't we all wish we had that Maryland game back?
I'll ignore my head again (never a good thing) and go with my gut feeling that the Hoosiers are going to play well in this one.  I'm counting on the Iowa defense to be the Iowa defense and we can jump start the offense in this one.
IU 79  Iowa 75

Couldn't look at myself in the mirror if I picked against the Hoosiers.  We have had a week to get ready while Purdue wore themselves out by hitting 19 3's against Iowa.  Boy, those Hawkeyes can sure play D-Fence!  IU is 8-6  against common opponents.  Against "like" opponents IU is 6-7 and Purdue is 6-9.  IU is 12-2 at home and the guys from West Lafayette are 2-6 on the road.  Home cooking, home fans and I hope some home officials and we can take this one.  This isn't the 18-19 version of the Boilers and we aren't the 18-19 version of the Hoosiers.  Let's turn this thing around!
Hoosiers 70
Hoosier Nots - 66       All together now!  Purdue sucks, Purdue sucks, Purdue sucks, Purdue sucks, Purdue sucks.

Praying you are right - for once.
 

Couldn't look at myself in the mirror if I picked against the Hoosiers.  We have had a week to get ready while Purdue wore themselves out by hitting 19 3's against Iowa.  Boy, those Hawkeyes can sure play D-Fence!  IU is 8-6  against common opponents.  Against "like" opponents IU is 6-7 and Purdue is 6-9.  IU is 12-2 at home and the guys from West Lafayette are 2-6 on the road.  Home cooking, home fans and I hope some home officials and we can take this one.  This isn't the 18-19 version of the Boilers and we aren't the 18-19 version of the Hoosiers.  Let's turn this thing around!
Hoosiers 70
Hoosier Nots - 66       All together now!  Purdue sucks, Purdue sucks, Purdue sucks, Purdue sucks, Purdue sucks.

I think we have reached the point in the season where you can start throwing out all of the "expert" advice and start relying on gut feeling.  I have a good feeling about this game.  Penn St is about a 5 point favorite, depending on who you check.  They are good at home as their 11-1 home record indicates.  We, on the other hand, are 1-3 in true away gamer.  Edge to Penn St.  Seasonally Penn State has an edge in offense 76.45 to 72.68.  We, on the other hand have a very slight edge in defense 68.26 to 68.56.  On paper that probably gives an edge to Penn St.  Overall since 2008 the record between the teams is 13-8 in favor of the Hoosiers.  That stat isn't particularly meaningful but it does indicate that the programs have been competitive, but Penn St has struggled a bit more historically.  With all that said my eyeball test says that IU is starting to come together and is playing better.  If they don't screw up at the end and beat Maryland in their last game or if the Jackson-Davis shot at the end falls, people would probably be looking at this game differently.  I predict that we are going to level out that home loss with a road win tonight.  I'd be more confident betting against the spread but I think we can take this one straight up.  It is gut check time for the Hoosiers.
IU 76
Penn St 70

Fork in the road time again.  Which way should I go this time?  Zigged when I should have zagged last time and that plays a game with your mind.  Not a lot of analysis this time.  The memory of the disaster at Maryland is still fresh.  If we let them run off to a big lead again we won't catch them again.  Well duh!  On the other hand Maryland hasn't been very good on the road this year and have a 1-4 record.  They are scoring 58.6 and giving up 63.4 on the road.  We are both 3-1 vs common opponents.  We both lost in Madison.  Vegas calls this one a 1 point game.  That means that it could go either way.  What the heck!  If we can beat Michigan State, the best team in the conference, we can beat the second best.
Hooisers 71
Turtles 66

Let's make this simple.
IU 103 - Other 72

Fork in the road time again.  Which way should I go this time?  Zigged when I should have zagged last time and that plays a game with your mind.  Not a lot of analysis this time.  The memory of the disaster at Maryland is still fresh.  If we let them run off to a big lead again we won't catch them again.  Well duh!  On the other hand Maryland hasn't been very good on the road this year and have a 1-4 record.  They are scoring 58.6 and giving up 63.4 on the road.  We are both 3-1 vs common opponents.  We both lost in Madison.  Vegas calls this one a 1 point game.  That means that it could go either way.  What the heck!  If we can beat Michigan State, the best team in the conference, we can beat the second best.
Hooisers 71
Turtles 66

Let's make this simple.
IU 103 - Other 72

I am going to start the line with them better by -6.... they play really good defense and we can struggle to score -3.... we are at home +5, and although it is a fairly early game the students can get "oiled" beforehand +2....I will be in the Hall +3... I have really liked Archie's commitment to use the bench as a motivator or at the very least keep the "bad" off the court for the night +2..... Race & Rob didn't finish the last game due to injury.... but I am going to assume they are both good to go here.... Turgeon +2
IU 66
Maryland 61
 

IU - 103
Other - 72
Payback!

Congratulations to fwgreenway for opening up daylight in first place.  HUGE congratulations to MoyeNeeded for picking the score for both teams and a big 145 points!  Me?  I stubbed my toe but I have a decent scratched score that I'll be bringing back.  On to Maryland and another fork in the road.  Don't mean to step on your toes Str8Hoosiers but I get excited and check the scores after the game.  

Did the wife not bathe you?  (ditto, happy I was wrong)

I stunk and I don't care because we got the win!!

Congratulations to fwgreenway for opening up daylight in first place.  HUGE congratulations to MoyeNeeded for picking the score for both teams and a big 145 points!  Me?  I stubbed my toe but I have a decent scratched score that I'll be bringing back.  On to Maryland and another fork in the road.  Don't mean to step on your toes Str8Hoosiers but I get excited and check the scores after the game.  

Congratulations to fwgreenway for opening up daylight in first place.  HUGE congratulations to MoyeNeeded for picking the score for both teams and a big 145 points!  Me?  I stubbed my toe but I have a decent scratched score that I'll be bringing back.  On to Maryland and another fork in the road.  Don't mean to step on your toes Str8Hoosiers but I get excited and check the scores after the game.  

Congratulations to fwgreenway for opening up daylight in first place.  HUGE congratulations to MoyeNeeded for picking the score for both teams and a big 145 points!  Me?  I stubbed my toe but I have a decent scratched score that I'll be bringing back.  On to Maryland and another fork in the road.  Don't mean to step on your toes Str8Hoosiers but I get excited and check the scores after the game.  

Slept the night through without getting up to pee. +20.  BTW a prune cocktail will take care of the constipation thing.

I hate games like this. I'm 72-years-old and I've been a dyed in the wool Hoosier fan since I was about 9.  Think of Jimmy Rayl, Walt Bellemy and Archie Dees my heroes growing up.  I will NEVER root against Indiana and NEVER miss a game if I can do anything to help it.  On the other hand this is a contest and you don't win something like this picking with your heart and not your head.  That is why I'm going with the Spartans and not the Hoosiers.  
With its best game, Indiana can win this.  I hope the fans get into the game early and loud because we are going to need that to pull off an upset.  And it would be an upset. Michigan State is the best team in the conference.  I know the Big Ten is 7-41 on the road in conference.  However, Michigan State has only been on the road in conference twice.  They are 6-1 but 5 of those wins were at home.  On the road they beat Northwestern and were crushed by Purdue.
While Archie, at times, can't decide who to play, Michigan State has a solid lineup.  Winston, Tillman, Brown and Henry seldom come off the floor.  That isn't to say that the bench is a bunch of stiffs.  It just says that this is a team that has some chemistry.  We are still working on that.
As to the numbers, IU comes up short across the board.  We are 1-3 against the top 25.  MSU is 2-1.  Over the last 10 games MSU is 9-1 and we are 6-4.  Against common opponents MSU is 3-0 and IU is 1-2.  Against teams with similar records MSU is 7-3 and IU is 2-4.   On average they outscore us on offense 78.3 to 75.1.  They also top us on defense 63.6 to 66.2.  We haven't been ranked once this year and Michigan state has been a top 10 dweller all year.
Still despite all of that this could be a very close game.  Who knows a 50/50 ball here and there, a good night rebounding the ball, Michigan foul trouble, a few fewer IU turnovers, or a few extra 3's fall and everything could turn out in IU's favor.  Those are all big IF's.  Vegas has this game at 141.5 o/u.  MSU is favored by 3 so that makes the implied final score 72-69.  I'm thinking that defense might be more important in this game than offense.  MSU is averaging 71 in conference the that includes a 47 point stinker in West Lafayette.  I see them scoring about 74 here and IU struggling to get to 70.  That's it. But I hope it is the other way around.
IU 70
MSU 74

Slept the night through without getting up to pee. +20.  BTW a prune cocktail will take care of the constipation thing.