IU Prof

IU defensive efficiency rankings under Woodson:
2021-22 - #24 (KenPom) / #16 (BartTorvik)
2022-23 - #45 (KenPom) / #47 (BartTorvik)
2023-24 - #84 (KenPom) / #77 (BartTorvik)

I can't fathom why you keep conflating an argument based on three years data down to just the most recent season. 
I'm also perplexed at why you argued two months ago that Woodson's offense was antiquated, but then said last night it wasn't a problem. But then earlier today you argued Woodson clearly intends to change the offense given the roster additions. I'm seriously confused at this point...

I can't fathom why you keep conflating an argument based on three years data down to just the most recent season. 
I'm also perplexed at why you argued two months ago that Woodson's offense was antiquated, but then said last night it wasn't a problem. But then earlier today you argued Woodson clearly intends to change the offense given the roster additions. I'm seriously confused at this point...

I'll admit that apathy has set in for me to a certain degree so I'm a bit biased toward the negative. I think we struggle to be top 1/3 in the conference, early exit (2nd round) in NCAAT. 

No you are assuming every single player takes huge leaps in efficiency and then your math still doesn't add up, so then you pretend math is subjective.

Why did we shoot the same number of threes per game the year before too, then, with Kopp, JHS, and Galloway at 46%?

More makes on larger volume=more points per possession. 
Turnovers and tempo also factor into efficiency. 

So is Reneau going to stagnate on the perimeter or is he going to be Mr Automatic at the rim? Your contradictions confuse me
Hell, If IU had made 8 3's on their 15.5 shot attempts  per game last season, shooting an NCAA record 51% from 3, adding 9 pts per 100 possessions their ORtg would still only have been 43rd and their kenpom would have 20th.
How do you not understand any volume of 35% 3pt shooting is not going to improve the offensive efficiency rating, if anything it will become even worse and the defense will suffer from easy run out buckets.
 

Not sure how anyone could have watched this coaching staff operate the last three years and think that because IU suddenly has Rice and Carlyle in the backcourt that that will lead to a significantly increased 3 point shooting volume. 
IU has had playmakers, shooters, etc., over the last three years and still played post dominant. They just spent $1+ million on Ballo, and lord knows how much to retain Reneau. The offense is still going to be post dominant.

What are you talking about? Neither Cupps nor Mgbako were even on the team in 2022, and Anthony Leal played 24 minutes all season. If you as a team shoot 38% from 3 then you have enough shooting ability on your team to take more 3s. There was no reason why Miller Kopp shouldn’t have been taking 6-7 3s a game in 2022. 
We have three years of evidence of Mike Woodson not emphasizing the 3 ball but we’re supposed to believe he’s suddenly going to change and IU will be firing away because ‘just trust me bro.’ Like cmon. 

Why did we shoot the same number of threes per game the year before too, then, with Kopp, JHS, and Galloway at 46%?

You dont go spend a million dollars on a center to run your fourth straight two big season if you’re going to drastically change your offense. Ware had a usage percentage of 22.9% last year. Ballo had a usage percentage of 21% last year and 22.9% the year before. Ware took 13.3 shots per 40 minutes last year to Ballo’s 12.0. 
So, sure, slightly less usage, but not *increase your 3 point attempts by 50%* less usage. IU was dead last in 3 point attempts in the Big 10 last year. The 13th place school shot 2.4 more a game than us. We’re not going to suddenly become a top 3 team in the conference in shooting 3s. 

I’d happily bet $100 that we don’t average  22+ three point attempts a game next season year.

What's your source for this assertion? 
 
We had this exact claim from you and others this time last season regarding Ware. And in fact Ware was capable of playing out on the perimeter shooting 43% from 3 yet he rarely ever played out there shooting only 1.3 per game and was mostly in the lane with Reneau. So you'll have to excuse those of us who don't quite believe the same pitch being sold last year at this time when it turned out to be just the wishful musings of internet fans and not some offensive philosophical shift by Coach Woodson.

Time will tell, but what's laughable to me is the suggestion that this is a top 15 offense. This whole line of argument also conspicuously sidesteps the fact that if guards who can create off the dribble are so essential to Woodson's offense, why it is that he willingly went into last season with a lack of such an essential ingredient to his offensive scheme.
And, of course, it also sidesteps the severe defensive regression IU has experienced each season under Woodson...

I said over the last 3 years. JHS, Galloway, Kopp, and even X at times were all playmakers or shooters (Galloway was both in 22-23). 
Agreed we won't force feed Ballo. We'll force feed Reneau instead.
Meanwhile, the Ballo-Reneau pairing will clog driving lanes, reducing the effectiveness of Rice and Carlyle. And while I think both will shoot better from distance this year, neither will hit at a high enough rate to be a difference maker from deep.
The system is the problem. And that's before we even get into defense, which has dropped every year since Fife was pushed out.

Not sure how anyone could have watched this coaching staff operate the last three years and think that because IU suddenly has Rice and Carlyle in the backcourt that that will lead to a significantly increased 3 point shooting volume. 
IU has had playmakers, shooters, etc., over the last three years and still played post dominant. They just spent $1+ million on Ballo, and lord knows how much to retain Reneau. The offense is still going to be post dominant.

Not sure how anyone could have watched this coaching staff operate the last three years and think that because IU suddenly has Rice and Carlyle in the backcourt that that will lead to a significantly increased 3 point shooting volume. 
IU has had playmakers, shooters, etc., over the last three years and still played post dominant. They just spent $1+ million on Ballo, and lord knows how much to retain Reneau. The offense is still going to be post dominant.

Time will tell, but what's laughable to me is the suggestion that this is a top 15 offense. This whole line of argument also conspicuously sidesteps the fact that if guards who can create off the dribble are so essential to Woodson's offense, why it is that he willingly went into last season with a lack of such an essential ingredient to his offensive scheme.
And, of course, it also sidesteps the severe defensive regression IU has experienced each season under Woodson...

I’ll go on record and say that, regardless of personnel, we’ll be in the bottom half of the country in three point attempts.
 The issue isn’t players here, it’s system. Go and look at the JHS/TJD/Kopp team and explain to me why Kopp averaged 4.1 3PA per game. The answer isn’t a lack of playmakers, or thar Kopp couldn’t shoot.
3PA rankings each year under Woodson:
2021- 321st (17.7/g)
2022- 352nd (15.5/g)
2023- 355th (15.5/g)

I said over the last 3 years. JHS, Galloway, Kopp, and even X at times were all playmakers or shooters (Galloway was both in 22-23). 
Agreed we won't force feed Ballo. We'll force feed Reneau instead.
Meanwhile, the Ballo-Reneau pairing will clog driving lanes, reducing the effectiveness of Rice and Carlyle. And while I think both will shoot better from distance this year, neither will hit at a high enough rate to be a difference maker from deep.
The system is the problem. And that's before we even get into defense, which has dropped every year since Fife was pushed out.

I agree that Harbaugh served as a potential parallel, although he was much more accomplished at the same juncture than Woodson. The bigger difference with Harbaugh, though, is that he was willing to look in the mirror and try to improve his own shortcomings. Some of that was personality, bonding more with players, etc. But he was also willing to revamp his defensive scheme. And he let go of some established assistants on the offensive side too to get new blood into the program.
Woodson has publicly shown no willingness to self reflect and address the ways in which his style and scheme are contributing to his underwhelming performance. He just thinks he needs to upgrade talent, and that his outdated system will still work.
So while I think the results next year are likely to be better than last, I still don't see this program breaking through in a big way as long as it runs the same offensive and defensive systems.

I said over the last 3 years. JHS, Galloway, Kopp, and even X at times were all playmakers or shooters (Galloway was both in 22-23). 
Agreed we won't force feed Ballo. We'll force feed Reneau instead.
Meanwhile, the Ballo-Reneau pairing will clog driving lanes, reducing the effectiveness of Rice and Carlyle. And while I think both will shoot better from distance this year, neither will hit at a high enough rate to be a difference maker from deep.
The system is the problem. And that's before we even get into defense, which has dropped every year since Fife was pushed out.

That offseason in iu land. Ever offseason we are going to have the greatest team ever until December rolls around.

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I agree that Harbaugh served as a potential parallel, although he was much more accomplished at the same juncture than Woodson. The bigger difference with Harbaugh, though, is that he was willing to look in the mirror and try to improve his own shortcomings. Some of that was personality, bonding more with players, etc. But he was also willing to revamp his defensive scheme. And he let go of some established assistants on the offensive side too to get new blood into the program.
Woodson has publicly shown no willingness to self reflect and address the ways in which his style and scheme are contributing to his underwhelming performance. He just thinks he needs to upgrade talent, and that his outdated system will still work.
So while I think the results next year are likely to be better than last, I still don't see this program breaking through in a big way as long as it runs the same offensive and defensive systems.