I know this isn't meant as a real question, but imo UH is a much better team than we are at this point (assuming we get past Kent, and Miami or Drake, both of which are strong).
I'd personally be happy with SW16. But it would be pretty fun to have another tilt with X, if we could get past UH (I don't see UH losing before the EE, and think they're probably FF bound), and X can somehow get past UT or A&M (pretty sure they'll beat Iowa St after it beats Pitt).
More simple answer, our AdjD just isn't there for a NC, Adj O isn't far off, but we haven't played consistently well since Race returned, and we're still pretty one dimensional - we grew to a good outside shooting percentage, but we still barely shoot it from outside.