Southside

i think we would want to play on day 1 of the BTT. we do play the 2 teams immediately ahead of us. playing day two would pit us vs OSU or MN as it stands right now. Then vs MSU or PU. if we need to get to 19 (that was other's magic number not mine), then starting day 2 is a more difficult road. beating IL, means we swept them, so we'd own the tie break. beating rutgers would mean split (not sure how tie breakers work).

they lost earlier this week, and they just had a bad home Q3 loss to Rutgers today, so they will drop. they play @Wisconsin and @Nebraska. They'll lose one, maybe both. They could possibly have 4 straight losses. Is 33 to 51 that big of a drop considering? honestly i don't now the weights of losses with NET, but in any other poll, 3-4 straight losses could easily mean a 17 spot drop. and, we could just as easily end up playing OSU or MN instead of Iowa in that spot.

No, it's not. currently - @IL is NET 94 (Q2) Rutgers at home is NET 104 (Q3) NW (likely Round 1) Neutral is NET 93 (Q2), and it actually could be a worse team. Iowa (likely Round 2) Neutral is NET 33 (currently Q1), but just lost (so will drop), and is likely to lose at least one, of their remaining games (both on the road). In short, Iowa would turn into a Q2. ---------- and To add, NW plays at IL this week before us. The winner won't be helped that much, but the loser is going to drop, possibly to Q3. Rutgers plays PSU, another game that really only hurts a possible match up for us.

my initial point is, we are out now. is 3 wins over bad teams at the bottom of the conference (IL, Rut, likely NW in the BTT), + a win over a decent but mid conf team like Iowa (who will not be ranked, has lost their last two, and will lose at least one more) be enough to get us in? that's not a lock to me.

some definitely are. some take it seriously, and it's their profession. i'll typically side with some of the talking heads who have a proven track records over fan board guys who pretend to know it all. right now, by every rating/ranking system, we're outside of the 36 at large bids. we're unique though. is 3 wins over bottom of the conference teams + 1 win over a mid conference team enough? we'll see. I think we need some help with others losing. if you feel that 19 is a lock, great.

like I said, i hope 19 is enough. i pointed out what the talking heads were criticizing (our non-conf SoS, and our conf record). then people acted like our NC SoS was good, it's not.

UGA up 4 with 15.1 left

kenpom has our non conference sos as 196th (last column) https://kenpom.com/ 3 additional in-conference games does pretty much nothing, or nothing to non conference SOS.

non-conference SoS rank is 134th... https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings/sos?&_3:col_1=1&_3:col_2=1 we're 35th now. that will drop a bit with IL and Rutgers.

hope all of you are right. i think our weak OoC schedule will be used against us., and 8-12 conf record is hard to dismiss. i think we will need some help from bubble teams losing with a 19 win record.

IMO it would take more than 2 BTT wins. Right now NW would be our 1st round, Iowa 2nd round. Then you're looking at scUM likely, and then either MSU or PU. 3 wins starts the conversation.

love the effort we've been seeing lately, even in the losses. a little too late but very happy the team didn't just quit on CAM aside from shiteing the bed @MN, every game has been competitive since the 1st MSU win two more reg season games and we're 17-14. right now the road in the BTT looks like NW-Iowa-scUM-PU/MSU. We could definitely win two. any more would put us back in the conversation.

I said early this year that we were going to have issues shooting, both perimeter and definitely the 3. We simply don't have the shooters, and that likely doesn't change next year. That said, I did not expect much this year, but I did expect more than 12th in the Big10 given we had Morgan and Langford. The injury bug hit us hard the first half, so I do give Archie some slack. I've seen some great performances, gutty/gritty performances, some understandable performances (due to injury), and some real duds. In short, there's a reason to be optimistic with Archie, and also a reason to question. I'm giving him another year. Until then, I'll just try to enjoy. But I do agree, if Archie doesn't make it, we need to be willing to spend in tune with expectations of the program. Not just on the coach, but also on facilities. There's only a few coaches I'd throw the kitchen sink at. For those that want a new coach, and are willing to spend top dollars, who are you going to go after (that would leave), and how much are you willing to spend on them.

time matters though. how many people think of Princeton as football giants based on their early domination of CFB?

probably should have posted the below in this thread instead of the holy **** thread. overjoyed because of the heart i saw. overjoyed because it showed Archie hasn't lost the guys. F the injury bug. we just can't get a break. Officiating sucked (both ways) as bad as I've seen it this year. The O moves better without Archie's scheme centering around Morgan. I'm not saying Morgan is bad (he's F'ing awesome). I'm saying Archie needs to run the offense differently using Morgan.

it's not. but it's been 30+ F'ing years. if i had to set a magic number, it would be 15. at most 20. we're well past both.

overjoyed because of the heart i saw. overjoyed because it showed Archie hasn't lost the guys. F the injury bug. we just can't get a break. Officiating sucked (both ways) as bad as I've seen it this year. The O moves better without Archie's scheme centering around Morgan. I'm not saying Morgan is bad (he's F'ing awesome). I'm saying Archie needs to run the offense differently using Morgan.

IU is not a blue blood anymore. maybe a blue hair. IMO, you're not a blue blood if you go 30 years without a NC.

shitty possession. romeo be romeo

regardless of outcome... so happy. i've seen heart. and that tells me Archie hasn't lost them. sick with injuries this year.

count me in believe-it-when-i-see-it category. again, i want AM to get a chance to recruit his players, and develop his players. losing your two best players (two best by a huge margin) will be rough next year. if people hate our O now, just wait lol. anyway, there's nothing more than i'd like to see as Archie succeed. But it's looking like a long and rough road.

he's not going anywhere this year. i'm not an AM hater. i've actually preached patience. i just don't see him here for 3 more years without significant improvement. i don't see him here past year 4 with the same type of results. relevant to play, we don't have shooters. and we don't really have shooters coming in next year except Franklin, whom I don't see carrying the team. i just don't see the O being good enough next year. i'd love to be wrong. perhaps the year after if Franklin develops and we land a 20 shooter like Leal and others. It's just hard to envision success 2 years away......

It has a lot of merit. The only issue, next year without Morgan will likely be ugly. Not sure they will give Archie that much time (they suggest 3 more years). Archie better be looking hard for shooters be it transfers, jucos, or whatever.

It was hard to watch... If Archie doesn't move to a rotation geared almost 100% towards offense, he's going to continue to pile up losses, lose the players, and lose his job. Zach either needs to start attempting shots (and making them), or he needs to sit. Fitz simply should not be an option. Personally, Give me Morgan and Smith as primary Fs, and Romeo, Phin, and Green starting Gs. Durham first off the bench, and pick the hot hand F of the week not named Fitz.... And if he does lose his job, Glass needs to hit the road too.

I said early in the year that 3pt and perimeter would be our biggest issues, and got poked at by several. I didn't see FT performance being this bad though. NW game IMO will set the tone going forward. Of our losses this year, we haven't lost to a "bad" team. We just need to start wining vs good teams. 5 of 6 losses were on the road. Losing to Nebraska, or really the way we lost, is what bothers me the most. Not high or low on Archie yet, but he needs to figure out a rotation that can score. Fitz is not a short or long term answer. Situational at best depending on the personnel and D we are facing.