As a realist I can say we're not being played. It's a kid. Can you blame him? To him this is the most important decision in his young life. He's not leaking anything and hasn't teased. He's doing it the right way and I believe we won't get him. It's Ok, it happens.
As a guy whose work basically entails being a realist, I can say that your focus of why IU has stunk the past thirty years is not recruit orientated but administrative. Focus on that instead. Not enough new blood there. Just a bunch of yes men/women and people who want job security who don't want to take logical chances in and out of the field.