lillurk

Yeah, the deadline is 3 ET. C’s dumped Jaden Springer yesterday to save on their luxury tax bill and haven’t figured in the rumor mill much. I’m no insider but I’d be a little surprised if the *Brad* half of this is done this early (though as we’ve litigated previously, other than draft prep and waiver wire playoff roster stuff, the timing makes some sense post-deadline). Also…having someone lined up makes a nice retirement easier to stomach for all sides, I think. CMW gets to keep some of what’s left on the salary as a no-show “program ambassador” or something, etc.

Right, big “if” but you could do it if the timing is right.

I doubt Brad has a lot of time for phone chats this week since today is the trade deadline. But “all” in Jerry’s message seems to me to be a both/and sort of thing: goodbye to one coach but also hello to another. Not to assume there’s pen to paper. But maybe there’s openness to have some serious discussions once the deadline passes.

Not sure I buy that, BUT he did say on Senior Day ‘24 that he’d be the coach as long as he wanted to be. He surely knows more than most about the writing on the wall; if he still believes what he said, maybe he wants to save face and get ahead of it.

On the board, absolutely. If this is about the machinations of changing coaches, interesting — wonder if we could infer a quiet sense of confidence on the horizon for Mr. Dolson.

I agree and aside from “other” as I said above I think he’s #2 in both likelihood and my personal preference. UM has a rep as a lower pressure job, which is true in terms of, like, national and local media coverage, butts in seats, and so on, but I don’t know that the evidence suggests they’d necessarily keep an under performer around much longer than IU would. Crisler is less likely to create the sort of unpleasant tense atmosphere we’re going to see at Assembly this weekend but your support and $ would dry up just about as quickly. That trade off understandably has appeal to some, and maybe May. But it’s not everyone’s preference!

Voted Stevens; if I had to rank likelihood of this group I would probably say Other, Stevens, May, [big gap], McCollum, with the other listed candidates very close to zero% chance combined. This isn’t an invitation for anyone to tell me who they think is great and why.

This and he has high-level experience dealing with the consequences of this kind of roster, as a coach and exec — and even if IU creates some sort of GM position, BS as HC would still be top dog in the org.

Huh. Pack has a little Avery Bradley, Carson Edwards, or Isaiah Thomas (not OUR IT, the more recent guy) in him.

It’s true that if the ONLY reason you hire a coach is one 3- or 4-game win streak in March, you’re not building a house on a solid foundation. It’s simply not true that the reason(s) they May is a good candidate are that limited.

And I will say until I’m blue in the face: EVERYBODY at IU gets dudes. That has never been the problem. NIL makes that even easier in some ways, I would guess.

I am not as familiar with McCollum as many here but I believe the case for him is basically that he’s won a remarkable number of championships below D1. I was a mild Archie skeptic because 1) Dayton is a high-floor program and Arch didn’t stand WAY out overall, 2) going to the elite 8 is great but one nice tournament run is a thin track record without other factors, 3) Arch had been a lesser coach than his brother (admittedly with less time to do it) and was partially riding his reputation plus, to a lesser degree, other coaches he was connected to, and 4) no record of being truly consistently excellent either overall or on one side of the ball from an efficiency standpoint; if I recall he never had a top 25 O or D at Dayton on Kenpom. A guy like that can work out! But a lot of somewhat flimsy stuff was carrying water for him and it turned out it was, indeed, flimsy.

Yes, I’ve wondered this too and it dovetails somewhat with my comment about coaching his son.

Just wondering aloud: has Stevens coached his son at all in prep or youth ball? I would guess not (haven’t seen if anywhere), but have no insight. But he may only have 3 or 4 more years to do it, and Shrews isn’t on the hot seat at ND. You probably don’t make this sort of move just so you can coach your son, but I wonder if it tugs on your heartstrings at least a little.

Yep, this morning I’ve been thinking: you can lose some of these games. You don’t like it, but realistically, even good IU teams are losing to other good teams on the road some of the time. the problem with under both Woody and Archie is that IU has too often lost these types of games most of the time, despite often having talent to justify better performance.

I believe there was some discussion yesterday about NBA team executive salaries in relationship to Stevens’ potential personal pro/con list. Front Office Sports doesn’t cite its sources here but is generally reputable: https://frontofficesports.com/highest-paid-nba-general-managers/ Stevens’ salary isn’t listed but when this was updated in the fall, only 5 reported salaries exceeded Woody’s coaching salary. A couple notes: 1. As mentioned, doesn’t cite sources, 2. Not every GM’s salary is listed, 3. Stevens is Boston’s president of basketball ops, technically, which might mean he’s closer to the top of the list, 4. Danny Ainge preceded Brad in that role and is listed at $3M in Utah; I wouldn’t be surprised if Danny took a haircut to be with the Jazz but did he take a 50% cut? Did Boston immediately pay Brad more than one of the best execs in bball when he had no front office experience? 5. As I think @Home Jersey mentioned yesterday, the money goes farther in So. IN than Boston, and finally, 6. If IU offered $70M over seven years in ‘21 they will almost surely be able to make this at least a lateral financial move once taxes, cost of living, etc. are factored in. Look, I get the skepticism that IU can make it work. But the timing to leave Boston makes some sense for a variety of reasons. We don’t know the Stevens but the family arguments are weaker this time around, you’d think. The financial circumstances can probs may be roughly equivalent, based on what we can glean. And I also just really think that as good as he’s been as an exec, Brad Stevens wants to be a basketball coach. He’s not just going to take any job, but we can reasonably expect that Dolson will make a compelling case against this time.

Believe Reneau himself was -12. He played alongside Ballo some, of course (start of both halves) and +/- has its flaws, but sticking with Reneau has basically cost IU two or maybe its last three games. I think we all like him as a player but he’s miscast with Ballo, AND post-injury he’s just clearly not back to his usual self yet.

Yep, and last night gave lots of clear-eyed reasons to move on that aren’t about demeanor or recruiting strategy. 1. you’d expect a coach with so much experience to have a better late game approach. This is two straight like that. And I don’t just mean calling a TO vs not in the late game ball-advancing situation, but burning a TO when you had 2 and could’ve advanced the ball, not making it clear that Gallo should’ve had the ball every time down, etc. 2. Rice was bad but he’s a better option than Tucker 8 days a week. Rice only played 20 minutes, Galloway only 25, Tucker’s 4 were a gift to PU 3. same with Reneau’s minutes in the 2nd half. Hatton was good in a brief 1st half stint and post-injury Reneau isn’t right. Should’ve stuck with one true big, which he did, but spelling Ballo with Hatton was the call. 4. the players play, and part of the problem is the sophomores haven’t been what the team needs this year with consistency. Rice wears lots of the last two with late game execution errors, but despite Mgbako’s brilliance last night, he wears some of the other January malaise (and the broad defensive issues too). I was skeptical about Carlyle being the answer in the offseason and it’s not his fault he was sick yesterday, but he has been less than advertised. Constructing the roster and developing players is the coach’s job.

I see folks bemoaning the “optics” explanation. Let me simplify: IU is 14-6 (5-4). Illinois is 13-6 (5-4). We all know Illinois is better right now, better coached, and so on. But be honest with yourself that the situation currently doesn’t look the same to a national writer/outsider/casual fan. And those things matter.

So a wing shooter/small-ball 4 to me. The most recent Hoosier I’d comp to Kopp with better physical tools

“Archie didn’t work out” — you’re right, but he also never had an elite o or d at Dayton, was coasting on one tournament run, and a recognizable name. Some of us were worried before Indiana State buried us under a barrage of 3s in game 1 of his tenure!

Not going to argue about it but some of us were like foaming at the mouth to watch Nate Oats in a big job. Every time I try to make the case for certain mid-major coaches someone decides that guy doesn’t have the Special High Major Voodoo and tries to argue with me but if you know what you’re looking for you can have a degree of confidence that Oats and May and so on are special before they ever make $1M

My point is that Brad will have responsibilities thereafter — draft scouting, filling end-of-bench seats, etc. — but that’s probably the date after which I’d get serious about the possibility of coaching again if I were an NBA exec

Haven’t seen anyone mention it: NBA trade deadline is 2/6.

Others have probably made this point but UK is a good lesson that IU Could just find a good college basketball coach and be a top 10 team next year. Pope has had good teams at BYU but wasn’t without some questions.