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lillurk

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Everything posted by lillurk

  1. I tend to think UK could’ve done better (Underwood? Seems they could’ve waited for Donovan?) but if Pope doesn’t succeed or last there my hunch is the reason is more that he gives them 2012-2016 Crean-style results and they’re unsatisfied, and not that he flames out. The other thing I’ll say about Proven Winner (TM) stuff that comes up all the time…25 months ago Hurley hadn’t gotten anyone past R32. Oats hadn’t gotten anyone farther when he took the Bama job, and until this year had underperformed Bama’s seed every year. Drew’s got a title at Baylor, hard to poke a hole there…but before he broke through there were some serious flameouts. Pearl has an impressive resume with some serious tournament issues sprinkled in. Tournament success isn’t everything, since it’s single-elim. But that’s the problem with “Proven Winner (TM)” being the heuristic over every other thing you can do to evaluate a coach. You’d never hire these guys in the first place BEFORE their prime, and while it’s nice to, for example, get Pitino on the Louisville timeline, or Cal when Memphis or UK did, that same logic would’ve (did!) pick Archie over Hurley, for example.
  2. I agree. I will say this one is so simple that anyone who took normal HS math should get it, not just 3>2 but 3*33%=2*50%
  3. I kinda see the vision here but Sampson’s Houston guys are all legit tough SOBs on the court, and Gillis is a multi year first team all fake tough IMHO
  4. Tristen Newton, all-American UConn guard, is 1) an East Carolina up transfer, who 2) coming into tonight has shot 31.9% on 3s this year. Now of course he plays with Cam Spencer (44%) and Alex Karaben (38%). But UConn’s other two starters, Castle and Clingan, are non-shooters (<30%). They have one of the top 5 Kenpom offenses of all time. Please, if we land a guard who isn’t Steph or Reggie or Ray Allen, don’t assume he can’t help IU win.
  5. Agree here but I will say: he’s gotta make the easy pass out when he sees obvious doubles and triples. Now if more shooters or dynamic playmakers surround him, maybe he trusts the pass more
  6. 3s rock go trees
  7. Love this, but the examples are not really from bands I hate or find terrible. Just, like, one good-or-great record and nothing else I like much. Bloc Party — Silent Alarm (debut, no bonus points) Phantom Planet — self-titled. 3rd album, weird for a s/t. Pretty cravenly tried and succeeded to jump on the Strokes-y garage rock revival. And then one by a band I like quite a bit, but they could’ve quit after their debut, it’s so sui generis and perfect: Sleigh Bells — Treats. Again, in this case I really like plenty of their other work, think the sophomore album in particular is quite good. But Treats was special.
  8. If we thought the spacing was bad with Ware, just wait until we see it with a guy who’s shot 26 3s in four years. A shame if the plan would be to start him — he could probably match his MPG (or get close to it) in a bench role that mostly kept him with only one of MM or MR at a time.
  9. Guys with 3 years of eligibility left who shoot well enough for you and have the other skills we’d want to see are lottery picks. IU definitely needs to shoot better but it also needs much better guard play overall. Lots of the good guards in the portal they’re in on have shooting skill but simply staring at the 3p% column may not show that in a helpful context. Not every player added this offseason is going to already have everything we’d want on paper.
  10. He took 100 3s in 23 games, playing 25 minutes. 46% of his field goals were 3PA. It’s true that 32% is pedestrian in a vacuum, but please read this, to the point @btownqb and @RaceToTheTop are making: https://johngasaway.com/2019/11/01/one-shooting-forecast-for-tre-jones-and-his-statistical-cohorts/ The short version: frosh who shoot lots of 3s have the trust of their coaches and typically turn into good shooters. Tre Jones’ % increased by 10 points as a sophomore to 36%, and he’s currently shooting 35% from the longer NBA line. (He’s not the only example therein.)
  11. I don’t doubt he’d like to. I doubt they’ll all end up there given the likely economic windfall at SLU can probably be beat.
  12. I would think there are other options, the SA concern is a big issue to me. Absent that, still #4 for me — nothing here tells me how well he defends.
  13. Would expect something like this too, especially given Chris saying MM’s sees himself as a 3 and MR sees himself as a 4. One workaround is you start a more traditional 5 with those two but after the initial lineup, mostly keep the starting 4 and 5 separate, splitting the minutes at the 5. (This is pretty common!) As an aside, I always find it pretty weird when players — both of whom in this case are pretty clearly hybrid/tweeners of the two positions in question — are insistent they are/aren’t one position or another. @Demo said something to this effect earlier but that always strikes me as a sort of naive way to view the game. In my pickup games I’m anywhere from a 1 to a 4 depending on my teammates, and while I don’t like to guard bigger bruisers, it doesn’t really make much difference to me any which position I play. Maybe naive isn’t the right word, as you sometimes hear this about the best players on earth, but it’s really focusing on the wrong things in ways I don’t get.
  14. UM fans were very excited that Davis and Martin reposted May’s IG post about the UM job. Not sure it means a LOT but we’d probably be excited about the same thing. They also want Goldin, of course. That said, UM’s hoops NIL has been underwhelming and May didn’t get concrete commitments in that area in taking the job (as far as I can tell the idea he bought was “UM fans/alum have lots of $, look how we support fball, if you win the $ will be there”). They could transfer to join him but if they go in open minded I imagine there will be higher bidders.
  15. Not super familiar with the UE player but it’s a bit of a trade off — Nelson’s listed at 6’11”, and has pretty good handle and athleticism for his size, but is a hair under 30% from 3 on > 300 attempts. So he’s got size and probably length and athleticism on his UE counterpart, but also seems a clearly worse shooter.
  16. Assume IU might sniff around here. https://x.com/draftexpress/status/1773757035521126756?s=46&t=amyLA-ibyLT69zYMzsU5bA He committed so early, I don’t know how much anyone who had traction in 2021 matters. He’s not a typical Woody guard — only 5’11” — but scoring 20 against Oak Hill’s schedule is no joke. https://247sports.com/player/christian-anderson-46125855/
  17. Somehow forgot this was in play, thanks
  18. I believe the comment was that the Tucker connection may have kept Hunter on the staff in the interregnum, and sealing him to IU may keep him on the staff next year. In other words: he looked like the fall guy after a bad year from the outside, but he was able to save himself by bringing in Tucker. That’s the theory, at least.
  19. Do we have reason to believe Connell would get a waiver? Or reason for concern? I know there’s a court injunction or something right now but under the old model he used his one-time transfer already.
  20. I assume McNeeley is not an option, unfortunately. The only other highly-regarded guy uncommitted in ‘24 is Khani Rooths, former UM commit and, I believe, he once had an offer. Saw him comment on Tucker’s IG commitment post but I haven’t heard anything about his plans. Suppose he’s theoretically an option but TBD where his interest lies this time around. Diamant Blazi has an offer and his other D1 offer as yet was Monmouth…I’m not down on him, late riser who played one year in US. He might want to make some other visits. But if those are your offers, you’re going to IU. Anyone else would have to be a ‘25 reclassification or someone asking out of a LOI or commitment, probably because of a coaching change. I.e. USC has 3 commits and just lost its HC, Andy Enfield, to SMU. Maybe they won’t stick at SC, though it appears they’re all west coasters so it might not be an obvious fit for any of those specific ones.
  21. Wonder how permanent this is, “consultant” makes me wonder if it’s just through the spring term or something. Imagine he may have some advocates in Ann Arbor if Dusty wants him back.
  22. Yes — all things being equal I like multi year portal players if you go that route. Expanding on my assertion that Malik can cover you SOME defensively at the 5, think there’s a few considerations: 1. With Malik himself, you give away some rim protection but potentially take away some of the fouls he accrues far from the hoop. 2. As others outlined, you can diminish (but not eliminate) the need for some rim protection with better defense everywhere else. 3. No Edey next year, Dainja’s a part-time player, none of the other 5s in the B1G next year as of now project to be Edey/TJD/Dickinson-level performers IMHO
  23. Don’t have the numbers but someone posted Cupps’ catch and shoot #s near the end of the season and they were substantially better, as you’d expect. It’s a bit unorthodox but he’s an easier guy to slot in and get ANYTHING from offensively if everyone else on the floor can provide ball-handling and rim pressure. He can space, and his defender then has to leave him open — ++ play for IU, maybe 1.3 points/possession if he’s a little over 40% from 3 on open catches, OR his man doesn’t leave him, and then it’s easier for whoever’s getting to the tin. That, and a normal progression for a guy who played a bunch of minutes, is probably a top half of the league backup PG.
  24. These shorter spring recruitments are much more like NBA free agency — meet the staff, see the facilities, here’s NIL range, can you be here in June, we’re also after Players B and C, think these players are returning…. So that and charism, plus what IU more broadly can offer?? Makes sense it’s Woody’s wheelhouse. Need to get better at the more typical, longer HS ones. 2 McD AA wings would’ve been nice this offseason. One is a nice consolation after the other dropped away. Malik at the 5 can work defensively some of the time — really need a backup, truer 5 who can protect the rim and can stretch out to 20-25 minutes some nights. That’s an easier portal patch than someone with Malik’s skills.
  25. Yeah I liked him at San Fran and would have him on my “long list” if I were an AD or consultant.
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