lillurk

My hunch is the team is smelly enough to force their hand the rest of the way

Yes

Yeah, I tend to agree. I like a high volume of 3 attempts but I also think when you’re more talented you can shoot plenty of 3s AND get to the rim and the line. He’s been a little too willing to play 3pt% roulette for me, though I think he’s great. Over a season, that makes sense, but it doesn’t always equalize within the game.

It’s fine if you don’t care, but a defense that gives up 70 points a night in 75 trips is preferable to one that gives up 70 in 68 trips even if you don’t have an aesthetic preference for faster games

I think Pearl would probably really like one shot at a blueblood job. He’s got a great team and that gives him some leverage. I imagine he would genuinely entertain the UL or IU job. But especially if Auburn makes a deep run next month, I think they’ll be inclined to do what it takes to keep him — financially and probably with a Kellen Sampson-style commitment to Stephen Pearl.

The defense is not 312th except in points per game, unadjusted for pace and strength of opponent etc, When you play fast you necessarily give up more points in a game of the same length. Per Kenpom, they’re 97th per possession, which is 9 spots better than IU. Not good but not among the bottom ~10% of D1 either.

@coonhounds and @Stuhoo are right, say what you will about the hires but IU AD has acted swiftly when the bottom falls out with a revenue sport head coach. Also note Allen’s payment was two lump sums they’ve already paid out. Others have made this case in greater length and detail but I wouldn’t consider the buyout prohibitive. It can be negotiated down, amortized across a number of years, and — perhaps most importantly — avoiding it is more costly in terms of lost revenue next year.

Would really like the Monday palace intrigue report today

The other thing I’ll say is what I said in the game thread today: IU doesn’t look like a team that’s gonna win again until November. Two marquee CBS home games the next two weekends are going to have an impact.

I’m not saying trilly’s wrong, and in fact he’s remarkably well-connected and accurate. BUT! On this kind of thing, with the Dolson IU AD, I think he’s been a liiiiittle behind Chris.

I don’t think IU will win again this year. There are a couple chances still, of course. But I think the home games are too important to the better opponents coming to town. I think the road games are actually better opportunities…but Minny needs every win and Maryland has looked competent lately. Haven’t looked at BTT scenarios but I don’t think they’d beat anyone but maybe UM or Maryland in that setting. And I’m skeptical it matters much even if they nab a couple of them.

Yes, and/or if recruiting was in a different place — if we were in the exact same spot plus Boogie and a couple of ‘25s committed, it might feel different. Even more so with someone younger, or who acknowledged this year as a failure. But Woody checks none of those boxes, the scheme is the same with worse personnel, the 13th scholarship sure could’ve been useful this year, and so on.

Oh agree — I think posters saying the hire was a colossal failure are overstating it, the first two years were good (given the starting point) but not great. Stabilizing after Arch was huge. But standing pat now would be a huge blunder. Kinda think Dolson knows.

I’m a little surprised to see the #9windiana crowd suggesting the furor is an overreaction to “one bad year.” Say what you will but that’s a smart and connected group, given the contract situation, roster and recruiting concerns, ‘25 class I would’ve thought they’d be more ready to move on. Not sure they’re particularly influential but they were out EARLY on Archie, for example, and right to be so

If Auburn makes a deep tournament run I would imagine it increases the possibility that AU ponies up an extension to keep Bruce there. Conversely, FAU doing so probably increases the chance May leaves. Though maybe last year indicates not — maybe he’ll wait another year, or for a specific offer.

I’m sure his agent is interested in getting him the job. To me he’s a high floor candidate. I think at IU you should be able to say “I can win a title with this coach,” and I’m not sure that’s his ceiling. Defenses have been uniformly very good. They play VERY slowly, and when you have talent I don’t think that’s a great plan. Even the UVa team that won played faster than Bennett’s typical. (Bennett’s interesting, btw, though I know the history and if I were hiring him I’d ask him to please hire an OC, football-style). The offenses have been up and down; without a deep dive I would assume that’s been heavily talent-dependent for Mick — player talent, of course, but I believe Lewis handled the offense when they were together.

A couple thoughts in the clear light of morning: 1. I don’t doubt IU/Dolson are interested in Pearl. I don’t doubt Pearl is interested sincerely — not of the mind that he’s just lobbying for a raise. But I remain skeptical both sides will ultimately pull the trigger (this is an opinion, no one needs to tell me I’m wrong). 2. Seems like lots of the Pearl-over-May opinion is rooted in an idea that Pearl is already one of the best coaches going and May might get there one day. I think they’re both among the best guys going (and there’s much more to May’s resume than the detractors keep saying). 3. As @RaceToTheTop pointed out, there’s all this hand-wringing about “how would May level up?” But he’s 7-2 — ALL ROAD AND NEUTRAL — against P5 teams in the past two seasons. Even if you throw in the F4 loss to a team as good as most P5 squads, that’s 7-3…70%. You take that. And he would absolutely, positively have more talent at IU than at FAU from day 1.

To be clear I like Pearl and think he’s clearly good! I do worry about downside risk, even setting aside health or age-related retirement. As Demo pointed out, his son is the next in line at Auburn and would likely want a similar anointing at IU. He may be great but that sort of patrilineal succession has mixed results. And sometimes you just let the game pass you by as you age. Or you hit a wall and only have five years left, not ten. Anyway, I’m confident he’s a short-term upgrade. But the anti-May case seems to assume he’s just like Arch, or [insert failed mid-major coach here — this is a smaller category than some realize IMO]. Pearl has risk too.

The accusation that May has some IU shine blinding people is true in a way of Pearl, too, who has regional connections and a history of speaking highly of the IU opportunity

Dayton has spent ~100 years supporting basketball institutionally like most Catholic schools and has NIT banners (from a time that meant more), tournament appearances, and infrastructure to prove it. FAU is a commuter school with no basketball history. Arch still has never had a top 25 offense or defense in any season on Kenpom, nor a top 25 finish. May has both.

Check his middling Kenpom rankings!

What is the argument that May’s floor is low? Im being sincere — as far as I can tell it’s projecting prior failed MM coaches on him. The # of guys who made a final 4 at a mid major and are bad coaches…I mean, show me that guy

Put another way: it’s not impossible to evaluate mid-major coaches just because they’re less-resourced. Some of us didn’t like the Archie hire from the jump but apply similar critical lenses to May and see a guy who can level up

He got to a final 4! The same # of them as Pearl, actually, as I keep pointing out, and Pearl has spent decades at well-funded P5 schools. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills when I read anti-Dusty screeds. He doesn’t have to be everyone’s #1 but pretending you know it’ll take years to build is not how it works in a free transfer era. Every successful coach was once lesser-known. I realize we’re not going to agree but some folks act like there are only two classes of coach: “proven winners TM” clear description excluded but it matches their preferences, and guys who’ll never be anything. I promise Dusty will be good somewhere.

Don’t care at all that he was an IU manager. Care that he’s built a team better than any Archie (or Woody) team by Kenpom and tourney success AT EFF AYY YOU. Everyone wins at Dayton. Everyone’s risky, I think he’s FAR less so than most other options. Put it this way: if we made a “wins above replacement coach” that factored in program, talent based on recruiting rankings etc. May’s performance at FAU would break the charts.