lillurk

I think that’s Ermann, a Maryland 247 writer who’s a bit of a homer from what I gather. He put in the crystal ball almost a year ago, and the 247 CB system incentivizes having it right for a long time. Given all that, I wouldn’t put too much stock into it unless there’s new premium info

Eeeehhhh, CMW made substantial, marked changes mid year each of his previous two years that made the team better down the stretch. He’s shown some flexibility this month even in games that have gone poorly. If there’s criticism of his rigidity — and I think there is! — it’s that he hasn’t changed enough, or soon enough. I have been pretty negative about the job he’s done this year BUT maybe he makes some adaptations and the roster changes for next year reflect that. This kind of year happens to almost every program, much as I hate it and I think the particular manner and reasons were predictable and could’ve been mitigated. The real test is what happens next year, and in the offseason. If IU hadn’t suffered through Archie’s fallow years it would be a little easier to stomach a year like this, assuming it ends in the NIT or whatever. But there’s pressure built that isn’t really CMW’s fault, and it sure would’ve been nice if he inherited more at guard than he did.

Even if you say Phinisee’s health is a bad break, it’s just remarkable how bad CAM was at evaluating and utilizing guards. I thought he underutilized Robert Johnson the one year he had him, failed to maximize Devonte Green, confused/scared Phin even setting aside the injuries, absolutely mishandled Romeo (who should’ve been running like 15 PNRs/game), prioritized Morton, didn’t offer Braden Smith….

Without turning the game on, I’m sure the vibes are so bad you can feel it

Archie was really after him, and he wasn’t putting up big numbers in PA HS hoops. I know everyone knows that but it remains so deeply strange that I feel like I must bring it up

2nd half foul disparity is 8-1 after just over 10 min

Boarding a flight in about 90 minutes, would like to do it while the game is in hand.

Agreed, though despite a bad plus/minus today I don’t know that Gunn would’ve been better than Leal. Woody hasn’t had a good year but the coaching today wasn’t the problem.

I have a good story about John Beilein recruiting Booker but since I’m anonymous this will have to suffice: Beilein knew what he was seeing the first time he saw Book, way before anyone knew his name

This one had some dominoes — if I recall Devin Booker picked UK over UM earlier that day (week?), and while UK probably had a scholarship, the PT writing was on the wall for JBJ

I’m curious where you’re at with regard to Cupps going forward after what we’ve seen this year.

I would say Mgbako’s not a full-time 3 at this level. I’ve been impressed sporadically with his rebounding, and guarding college 4s probably masks his defensive deficiencies at this point. I was encouraged when Queen’s defense on a perimeter switch impressed you a week or two ago, Demo. I love a real rim protector, but plenty of good defenses just force tough shots without one — Tennessee the best current example IMHO

Yes, he’s been much better literally his entire career until now and even those better times were up-and-down. They have two other guys who can play point in a pinch and should’ve prioritized any playable combo/2-guard

Yep and in hoops you only play 5 at once, so a small number of players make a big difference. We all saw a need all offseason, though to be fair to the staff, it’s worse than expected because a sixth year guy has been worse than any reasonable expectation (even baking in prior volatility).

Why does anyone assume new coach = multi-year rebuild in the portal era with IU’s resources?

Tend to agree that Woodson deserves another year if he wants it, though of course his direct report needs to give him some clear feedback about the issues everyone sees (Dolson sees it too, I’m sure). That’s clearly fair, unless he’s just done, in which case we have no choice. Practically speaking CMW’s buyout is 50% of remaining salary after 4/1/25. Are we sure May would go to UL? I’m not convinced. There was some reporting/rumor going around that they were pretty low on cash, he probably has the guys to be prettt good again at FAU next year, and if he has an inkling the dream job might come available…. Even if UL is interested — and I’m not convinced — I don’t know if the interest is mutual.

Like many of you I have attended multiple IHSAA tournament games at larger HS gyms.

Thanks, I waited awhile to post after you cooked someone else for a “wall of text” over the weekend

A Case for Dusty May There are no sure things in coaching hires but I think we can approach things with more nuance than hand-waving him into a pile with coaches who’ve had one good March run and flamed out later. (Also I think lots of the coaches being dismissed that way have had pretty good careers if they ended up getting a high-major chance anyway.) In his first HC job, he is the best coach in FAU’s history by many orders of magnitude. Even setting aside weighing last year’s F4 run too heavily, the team’s best ever Torvik finish before May was 184th, back in 2011. May arrived in ‘19 and has been higher than that EVERY YEAR. FAU has been D-1 since ‘93 and he’s the third longest-tenured coach in their history. He already has 115 of their 378 all-time D-1 wins. His career win% is 64.2%, FAU before him was 35.5%. Second, even setting aside the F4 run, last year’s team was 31-3 before the tournament, with strong predictive/performance numbers. They were quite underseeded at 9. Again, at FAU. He’s cruising to an at-large, and they would’ve been so last year…at FAU. That’s not Dayton, or VCU, Gonzaga, or Wichita State, someplace with a strong hoops culture and history. Third, the manner in which his FAU roster last year and this have been built bodes well for his ability to identify and develop players. Boyd, Martin, and Davis are homegrown, and each from a different region of the country. Goldin, Gaffney, and Greenlee were down-transfers from high majors, but none of the three was an established difference maker, and 2 of the 3 had very little college game tape. As far as I can tell those are the only transfers — nothing wrong with TRs but it speaks to his ability to find and build players, not just work with top ### guys. At IU you can get in the door with those guys. If he can build some guys who’ll get NBA looks with what was available to him at FAU, he can win at IU. Occasionally I see folks suggest they’re concerned about his recruiting but that misses how the sausage is made: you are only getting top guys at FAU if you 1) parent them, 2) their parents work there, or 3) some other absurd thing like 1 or 2. If he can compete like this without obvious HS talent, he’ll be fine, and IU has had dudes under every 21st century coach. It’s also noteworthy that he kept the squad together this year. Even after last year’s success, I’m sure there were tantalizing opportunities for many (most?) of his roster. I think that level of buy-in and relationship scales up. They tend to spread minutes around, too, which isn’t always the answer but suggests mutual trust. This isn’t just a couple diamond-in-the-rough studs. I’m sure we all figured they’d be pretty good this year, but I’ve been impressed that they’ve actually met or outperformed computer projections, which thought they’d be good but could be more “bubble team” than top 25. I would rather win ugly than lose pretty, but FAU plays modern, attractive hoops and competes on defense. By % of minutes played their top 5 most-used players this year are wings or guards. They play one true big about 90% of the time…and the 10% that’s not true are minutes with no big or a hybrid forward at the 5, not plodding two big lineups. They’ve been well-rounded on both sides of the ball, i.e. their success isn’t JUST dependent on dominating the turnover battle or strong shooting or something else that’s gonna graduate with one particular class. Finally, I love his quiet confidence. He thought he could stay and win at FAU. People know he wants the IU job, even though he knows what expectations that means. Arrogance gets in the way of self-improvement, but to win at a high level some confidence is a must. I hope to watch the track record get longer, but what’s there is already really impressive, and makes me think he could jump somewhere like Louisville, Michigan, etc. and succeed quickly and for awhile. Let’s hope he does so at IU eventually. (Cc @DLG3)

Someone got the memo

Let me give it an edit and I’ll get it posted.

Yes, although Crean had like 6 Kenpom finishes higher than any of Archie’s, his tournament run was not just all coinflips, and he’d pretty consistently put together elite (or nearly elite) offenses. And the proof is kinda in the pudding. Say what you will about Crean but his IU career is so far clear of Archie it isn’t even a discussion.

I get the impulse to be leery of low- and mid-major coaches making the step up but I think Schertz and May are both worth a long look. I think a deeper, more nuanced evaluation of those type of candidates typically gives you a good idea of what job is a good match, what to expect when they level up, etc. To give an example that probably hits too close to home, when we hired Miller I was worried that too much of his case for the job rested on 1) name/family recognition, 2) one single tournament run that hinged on winning some close ones. I didn’t even consider one of the issues we’ve seen since, which is that Dayton’s a darn good program across multiple coaches. But he hadn’t really popped on efficiency metrics, with the exception of one really good defense. And, well, we all know how that went. He didn’t really have anything that said he’d scale up well, and he moved up right about the time teams started bombing more 3s and really exposing pack line defenses. Anyway, I’ve got a note outlining why May’s a really good candidate for SOME high major job, but idk if anyone wants to read that right now.

East being good at Mizzou for a couple years has been vindicating. I (and others) thought he’d be a high-major caliber player eventually way back when he was at New Albany. As for Bates, yeah, it’s just scoring, and he still appears “light in the butt,” as Woody says. So he’s probably fine guarding 1s but not burlier players even at the 2. And you’re right, it would be nice to see some other contributions. Especially as a shooter of that caliber, the next step is making plays for others. In addition to the issues you mention, Mizzou rebounds very poorly and is badly outscored at the line. They don’t get there often, their opponents do, and they’ve been unlucky with good opponent Ft%. I still like Coach Gates, but I wonder if he’d be well served with a dedicated defensive coordinator in one assistant spot, a la Yaklich for Beilein (if I mention that a lot, it’s because more coaches should do it with their weaker side of the ball!)

I mean: I think I know what happened. But I think it could’ve gone differently.