lillurk

Not unless it’s his second one

https://twitter.com/chrisdaplant/status/1891198949723148537?s=46 ^^not some rumor monger. Not sure it’s some done deal but it’s not just folks around here who think IU is really gonna shoot its shot.

The one thing that might really help in pursuit of McCasland, Otz, and Drew is the increasing financial chasm between the B1G, SEC, and everyone else. All 3 appear to be long shots for a variety of different reasons but if, e.g. Otz is on the podium at AH on 3/26 or whenever, I’ll bet the football TV contracts are a big part of why, whether he says so or not.

For what it’s worth no one actually seems to be in the know and I’m not sure those who know are talking. So it’s mostly hypotheticals.

I think this is virtually a lock NOT to happen if the hire is a sitting head coach. We may have a strong idea who it’ll be — no May extension, coupled with a search that stays quiet, for example, would be a pretty serious sign. However, if it’s a Stevens, Jay Wright, Tony Bennett thing, if the Bulls hit a skid and send Billy Donovan out, then it could happen. These are all much less likely, of course, than the first paragraph. The fact Woody is “retiring” and it’s not an outright firing gives you some cover here that differs from a more traditional situation.

Baylor has big time cash, not sure UCLA does.

Interesting. He has a personal connection to the state of IN of course, and IU is clearly a better job than UL. But…UK…hard to make the case it’s a worse job than IU, unless (like Drew) you have some special personal preference

Two years ago at FAU he finished Kenpom 17 (UM is currently 22nd), final 4, 35-4; last year they were KP 47, basically a miracle at FAU.

I would not worry very much about established recruiting track record with any of the candidates. IU has pretty much always had good-to-great players, and NIL means that should be even more consistently true. If it’s some massive red flag for someone, especially across time, then maybe it’s a problem. I don’t really see that with Mick Cronin has out-recruited what you’d probably expect given his grumpiness. UCLA obviously has a storied history but it’s not an NIL hotbed.

And I’m not a Cronin fanboy but I did both 1. Some self-reflection and 2. Some evaluation of his record and I think he’s kinda nationally underrated and would succeed at IU. I don’t love his demeanor but he gets dudes, they’re consistently awesome at preventing other teams from shooting well from 2 (one of the most repeatable, predictive defensive metrics), his offenses have been better than I would’ve guessed (partially because he tends toward slower paces).

Like it’s not meaningless but it’s much less important than consistently fielding a good team, competing in conference, making the dance, low chance of scandal/embarrassment that hurts or sets back the program.

Hyper-fixating on postseason record is a weak argument

I think there are other good candidates, and of course we have >1000 pages discussing how we feel about them. Broadly, if we win, most folks will be supportive, though of course there are matters of conscience that would complicate a candidate or two, and there are candidates closer to the end of their career that worry me. Not so much that they can’t win at that stage; 10 years of McDermott would probably be great, for example. But coaching requires both belief in what you’re doing AND a willingness to learn and adapt; it’s hard work, and when you’re nearing the end of a long, lucrative career, it’s easy to imagine the grind wears you down, or you’re less willing to learn.

There are only 8 active coaches who’ve been to more than one final 4. Can’t quite find the same for elite 8 and I’m not going to manually count them. Only 15 more active coaches have even been to on F4. Of those 23, about half can be immediately eliminated because they’re retiring (Larranaga), not leaving (Izzo), likely unattainable (Hurley), or we simply wouldn’t be anywhere near excited about them (Frank Martin, among others).

You hire a coach for their future, not their past, I’m with you

Everyone’s allowed their opinion but this is the clear right answer, I think. It’s not the only goal, but at a place with top 5 or top 10 resources, this is not some insurmountable ask: 32 auto bids means 36 at-large spots. Given the strength of the conference, that means being basically a top 36 program even in a lesser year (injury-riddled, bad shooting luck for a chunk of the year, non-conference schedule falls flat, etc.).

Yeah to me the thing to watch with May is 1. If he agrees to an extension (not just the currently reported “AD is working on it”) and 2. If so, what are the buyout terms. He’s aware he’d probably have at least a chance at the IU job; if he wants it, you just don’t sign until after your season. Tell your agent to haggle and give Warde Manuel the runaround on little details until the job is filled or your season is done.

It won’t be Brownell but his overperformance whenever he's on the hot seat at Clemson is legendary. Which, at IU, would mean more final 4s and more tournament misses lol

This is a lot of fun but I’d rather fast forward to posting about what IU men’s basketball head coach Dusty May is doing to build our future come April or whenever

Underwood meets the Thamel criteria and is a good coach. Brownell …think how many dudes would have to say no before we got to him, no offense to BB

I don’t know what happened in the negotiations but it always seemed like this was a horse trade to me and in exchange he got the right to pay any termination fee in payments as low as $1M a year; those two things were added to CMW’s contract at the same time.

Appears some of them have been on here but don’t have much to share at the moment related to ANY candidate.

More the former, people think his wife won’t leave, as she was a star at ISU. He also has a pretty sizable buyout. IU should see what’s possible though.

Conversely asking “why would he leave the job he’s in?” helps rule out some others. @Stuhoo mentioned Oats and Golden; I do wonder if Golden may desire a change of scenery or “fresh start” but it’s a good heuristic. Now, maybe the answer is also in Thamel’s criteria: consistent, top 10 nationally NIL. I don’t know how e.g. Florida compares there. This is also why I’m skeptical of Buzz, TAMU can really spend. Michigan can too, though the longer any contract extension drags out the more optimistic I would be about May.

We can debate them until we’re blue in the face but given the criteria Thamel outlined, I don’t think Byington, Schertz, or McCollum are likely shortlist candidates. Byington is the only one who hits both sitting high major head coach AND has made a D1 tournament. Not an argument about who’s a good coach, just that those two criteria probably mean pining for one of those is a waste of time.