Juwan Moye

People like making up stuff, or building straw men, to support what they WANT to happen versus what history has shown us is more likely to happen.

I’m not ignoring anything, you need to go back and read the discussion if you lack context. The point is that we’re somehow going to be a top-15 offense because we’re going to take more threes. Which the data of the last 3 years doesn’t come close to supporting. So if you think we’ll magically be a team taking even an average number of threes next year then the one lacking common sense would not be me. And to refute your basic point even though it was off the mark: Kopp shot 44%+ his senior year, so a Kopp three was a VERY efficient shot that we didn’t prioritize. I assume because it’s not our coach’s job to get guys shots.

Going back and re reading his point was simply that IU will not have a top-15 offense this year and he was refuting some questionable points brought up by another poster to try and defend the top-15 prediction. The finer points here don’t matter much to that discussion IMO. You could assume growth in 3pt% and 2pt% and we’re still not a top-15 offense unless those numbers are SUBSTANTIALLY better than last year.

I’ll go on record and say that, regardless of personnel, we’ll be in the bottom half of the country in three point attempts. The issue isn’t players here, it’s system. Go and look at the JHS/TJD/Kopp team and explain to me why Kopp averaged 4.1 3PA per game. The answer isn’t a lack of playmakers, or thar Kopp couldn’t shoot. 3PA rankings each year under Woodson: 2021- 321st (17.7/g) 2022- 352nd (15.5/g) 2023- 355th (15.5/g)

Death, taxes, and Malik on the bench with his third foul.

I believe he’s quoting points per game, which is flawed, but here’s a screenshot. I’d trust KenPom more which had us at 105th.

This is why his “it doesn’t matter who starts it matter who finishes” type lines frustrates me as a fan. It ABSOLUTELY matters who starts, that’s how you set the tone for a game. Too often we come out listless, especially against bad teams, and allow them to get confidence that they can compete. Punch them in the mouth from the start and take any wind they may have out of their sails. Be relentless about the pursuit of excellence in all things at all times if the goal is actually a national championship.

My expectation? Top third of the new B1G with the chance to over perform if a reliable shooter or two emerges outside of Mgbako. I’d also suggest, given the dollar investment in coach and players, if this isn’t a team that’s at least fringe top-25 for most of the year, and at least a 7 seed in the tournament, then CMW should be gone barring a Sweet 16 run. So this is apparently me hoping CMW is back because it means we had a level of success that we actually get to cheer for again.

Valid points but I also think that if Vegas had a line on where our offense will end up this year it’d be closer to the 30s-40s than top-15. Personally, while offense is fun, I’m more excited to see improvements on the defensive end. And in particular, defending the three point line.

Last year’s offense was ranked 105th in the country. We will need A LOT to go really right to be a top-15 offense. CMWs highest ranked offense so far was 28th and that was with JHS and TJD.

Yep, which is the talent vs fit argument.

I expect Ballo to be an upgrade early in the season over what Ware was early last year but late in the season it’s even if not worse because Ware really came into his own at the end of the year AND his game compliments Reneau better. Agreed on the shooting concerns as well. Crimson colored glasses fans act like everyone progresses as a shooter each year but they can go backwards as well. The optimist in me hopes that better guard play can make it that come true but it’s far from a guarantee.

This is my worry again this year. Early season, we squeak by some KenPom 300+ team because we give up 10+ threes, and it feels like deja vu. Some fans try to convince us the Army and Florida Gulf Coast are underrated and the analytics are flawed. But in reality, we’re about to get torched by the three all year. I REALLY prefer to be wrong here and would be so happy if coach actually adjusts. I’m just not optimistic based on everything we’ve said, and everything he’s said, up to this point.

I’d change that to “we’ll start our most talented 5” as I think our “best 5” wouldn’t include Malik playing next to Ballo. Id expect our “best 5” to be Rice, Carlyle, Galloway, Mgbako, Ballo. That’s at least the most balanced lineup this amateurs eyes can see. Could change if Malik becomes a better shooter/perimeter defender or if Tucker comes on strong.

I’m still not confident that our coach will put these young men in the right position to maximize success this year. My “way too early” guess is a top-6 B1G finish with a round of 32 exit. Just enough for some people to think he should still be around, but bad enough with the talent where most still want him gone.

If Dusty May goes with 2 7-footers in his lineup Hoosier fans may lose their minds.

Wolf vs Ballo will be interesting. Complete contrast of styles.

With that much cheese he could buy a Hemi.

Not sure what he’s after but it could just be meaningful minutes as well. Hard to see him getting those if we land Carlyle. Rice, Carlyle, and Trey will eat up a lot of guard minutes.

With a good coach it would be. But agreed with ours it’s not. To stay on topic though: given the influx of guard talent it would make sense to reexamine our “ideal” lineups as I agree, more shooting and quickness on the defensive end are needed. Reneau spending time as a small ball 5 for some of the game would help a lot with this. Having him be first off the bench for Ballo instead of having some random backup big come in is likely the best utilization of our talent.

Agreed. Ballo will likely only play 25-28 minutes a game as well, which leaves 12-15 minutes open at the 5 and I’d REALLY prefer Reneau be the one taking those minutes versus any random backup big we could get from the portal. Reneau spending 12-15 minutes at the 5, and another 10-15 minutes at the 4 to spell Mgbako, would be ideal IMO.

Personally I’d rather see an Essegian type get 15 minutes a game instead of some random backup big. But we know that won’t happen.

Was exactly my thought. The bridge is being built but it still can’t get us over the damn hump!

They focused on the offensive end but yeah, its the same issue on both sides of the ball. We don’t have to “prioritize” the three on both sides but we have to at least be competent at it on both sides. If we went 3 guards with Mgbako at the 4 and Ballo at the 5 that still PLENTY of size while also obviously addressing our biggest weakness on both sides of the ball. Give me a Rice, Carlyle, (shooter), Mgbako, Ballo lineup and we’ve got a top-25 team. I’m less sure about that if we’re playing Ballo and Reneau together big minutes barring another major leap from Reneau, especially on the perimeter on both sides of the ball.

I’d be shocked if Woodson abandons his nail-slot-rim defense. And yeah, it’s a sieve for giving up three point shots. It’s exacerbated by playing “big” with Mgbako at the 3 and Malik at the 4. So we control the paint but no one cares, they just launch wide open threes to beat us.