akhosrof
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Everything posted by akhosrof
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Biggest changes needed to the football team?
akhosrof replied to Miller'sTheMan's topic in Indiana Hoosiers Football
I understand your point, but are these stats anymore flawed than the individual judgements we naturally make? Someone in this topic said "there should be an advanced stat for how many times Lagow made this board go WTH." That's a natural judgement many of us made this season. How many good plays would it take from Lagow to get that out of our head? Each of us is different. At some point you have to make a final judgement or grade in a collective performance. No grading scale is going to be perfect, but PFF is pretty damn good. I'm not smart enough to conduct an eye test, given all the factors you mentioned with 22 players on the field. Nor do I have the time to evaluate every play. That's why I like to rely on the pros (PFF). All PFF is doing is taking the bias out of the evaluation process, putting everything on a consistent grading scale, and tallying a final evaluation. While you may have a problem with the grading scale, the fact remains that you have an evaluator with professional credentials grade how well a player did on each play taking all 22 players into consideration (and sometimes another evaluator quality checks), a grade is compiled, and each player has a grade that can be compared on an even scale for their position. For PFF the stat is essentially a compilation of a professional evaluator's judgements on how well one player did his job over the course of a game. Most of the time it's pretty obvious on a single play if the player graded positive or negative, but sure there could be some subjective areas in there. If both PFF and ESPN Total QBR come out to a similar, relative grade, I'm very inclined to believe there's truth in the sentiment of that evaluation. Btw, I do agree. Baseball has the best advanced stats and basketball and football pale in comparison. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Biggest changes needed to the football team?
akhosrof replied to Miller'sTheMan's topic in Indiana Hoosiers Football
For PFF I think that's somewhat correct. I believe their grading system has a play grade of positive, double positive, negative, or double negative. Or something along those lines. So a sack or incompletion could have a different grade based upon how good or bad the decision was, or at what point in the game the play was. ESPN's Total QBR is based on win probability, so a sack or incompletion will have a different grade at different points of the game based on the score. QB's aren't faulted if there's a blatant drop or blown pass protection. In college, Total QBR is adjusted for difficulty of schedule. A QB could have a terrible first half, but if he comes back and single handedly wins his team the game, his overall score is likely to be good. Either way, both systems are much better than merely looking at stat lines or TD-INT ratios. I like PFF because it is professional scouts looking at every play and making a judgement on each play individually. They look at the film the same way a coach would and apply their grading system. A positive for ESPN's grading system is the correlation between the team that wins a game and the team that had the QB with the higher Total QBR is extremely high. I would imagine it's the same with PFF. ESPN proved the correlation is a lot lower if you're only looking at stat lines (i.e. Normal QBR), because a bad QB can rack up big stats in garbage time. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Biggest changes needed to the football team?
akhosrof replied to Miller'sTheMan's topic in Indiana Hoosiers Football
Of course, these statistics are not the be all end all. But they are relative. I think PFF's grading is better than ESPN's Total QBR. And Lagow tended to grade out lower on PFF, but still at an average level. I tend to favor these sort of stats, but that's probably because I am not knowledgeable enough for any sort of eye test[emoji1] Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Biggest changes needed to the football team?
akhosrof replied to Miller'sTheMan's topic in Indiana Hoosiers Football
ESPN Total QBR, 50 is considered average: http://www.espn.com/ncf/qbr I don't have a subscription to PFF, but my unscientific reading of their week-to-week reviews of our games Lagow has been consistently rated within their average range. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Biggest changes needed to the football team?
akhosrof replied to Miller'sTheMan's topic in Indiana Hoosiers Football
All the advanced statistics suggest that Lagow was average this past season. That includes the good (passing yards) and the bad (turnovers). I agree, Lagow should see an incremental improvement in his game after a full year in our program. Shawn Watson as QB coach will help as well. A new OC with a new offense might make the adjustment tough for Lagow. I don't think Lagow's strengths fit well to the offense CTA and DeBord want to run. Lagow is a good measuring stick for a QB competition. We know we have an average QB with good potential and a year of starting experience, so any QB that beats him out will either be pretty good, or Lagow will have had to seriously regress. I think Ramsey is a very good fit for DeBord's offense. Will McBride is a DT QB who is a TN commit. With TN getting a new OC, possibly a high profile one like Helfrich who will likely have his own guy, could DeBord bring him to IU? McBride is an early enrollee as well. We should see some serious movement of recruits once the dead period lifts. I'm sure we'll lose some kids, but we'll gain some too. Will be fun. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Has to be PJ Fleck. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app
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Picture for what Hovadipo is referring to: Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app
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Still one more spot open on the staff. With CTA still calling the defense the open spot is likely to be on the offensive side of the ball. I would guess we still do not have our offensive coordinator.
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Shawn Watson was promoted to QB coach prior to the bowl game. Wouldn't want him calling an offense by any means but he has an excellent résumé as a QB coach. I think Watson could be a real asset to us if he stays on. https://www.google.com/amp/www.barkingcarnival.com/platform/amp/2014/8/11/5979165/the-misunderstood-shawn-watson-part-i-an-excerpt-from-the-2014?client=safari Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app
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Interesting but understandable move. CTA needs an OC who will be able to be the head coach of the offense with little help from the head coach. CTA will have his hands full calling the defense and improving special teams. I wonder who we are looking at? Is Watson staying? If so, would he be a co-OC with Heard? Just some external names to throw out: Cam Cameron, Dan Werner (Ole Miss), David Reaves (USF), Chris Creighton (EMU) Not putting any weight into realistic possibilities, just naming people close to the program or have ties with CTA. I obviously don't expect Creighton to leave as HC of EMU to be OC at IU. You never know though. EMU's athletic department is broke and I'm sure we could pay him more money to come here. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app
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There will be lots of NFL jobs available. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get another head coaching job. If not that, some NFL team will pay him big money to be their offensive coordinator. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app
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Biggest changes needed to the football team?
akhosrof replied to Miller'sTheMan's topic in Indiana Hoosiers Football
I think point 1 depends on point 2. We have to know who will run the offense before we can speculate who will be the QB. Will the OC be Johns, Watson/Heard, or heck, Cam Cameron? If Johns stays, you have to think Lagow has the leg up. If we have a new OC, maybe there is a need for a more athletic QB and Ramsey has a legitimate chance. I think we'll have a much better idea of the changes needed once CTA competes his staff. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Indiana vs Louisville Game Thread
akhosrof replied to IU Hoosier41's topic in Indiana Men's Basketball
Time for OG to start shooting them underhanded? Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Sorry if this is a dumb question, but what's the situation with Glass? Is the assumption that he will stay here the next fifteen years or so? Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app
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Game Thread: Foster Farms Bowl - IU vs Utah 8:30ET on FOX
akhosrof replied to Hovadipo's topic in Indiana Hoosiers Football
Who plays QB next year could be dependent upon who controls the offense next year. If Johns leaves, and Heard and Watson control the game plan, maybe they need a QB with a different skill set. If Johns stays, my guess is that Lagow stays the QB unless King or Ramsey play lights out this spring. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Game Thread: Foster Farms Bowl - IU vs Utah 8:30ET on FOX
akhosrof replied to Hovadipo's topic in Indiana Hoosiers Football
This loss hurts a lot more than the Nebrasketball loss. Continually so close to breaking through. I wonder what changes CTA will make to the coaching staff. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Game Thread: Foster Farms Bowl - IU vs Utah 8:30ET on FOX
akhosrof replied to Hovadipo's topic in Indiana Hoosiers Football
For everyone saying horrible offense, I think that is completely disrespecting Utah's defense. That is a defense with lots of NFL talent on it and a top notch coaching staff. Yards weren't going to come easy tonight regardless. They had turnovers, we had turnovers. Special teams was the difference. Their kicker had two kicks that barely went in, ours missed one. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Game Thread: Foster Farms Bowl - IU vs Utah 8:30ET on FOX
akhosrof replied to Hovadipo's topic in Indiana Hoosiers Football
No luck there. Good things happen when your guys play every play to the whistle. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Game Thread: Foster Farms Bowl - IU vs Utah 8:30ET on FOX
akhosrof replied to Hovadipo's topic in Indiana Hoosiers Football
LETS GO!!!! Really scrappy bunch. Good play calling on that last drive getting Lagow some open throws. Hats off to the offensive line on that last drive too. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Game Thread: Foster Farms Bowl - IU vs Utah 8:30ET on FOX
akhosrof replied to Hovadipo's topic in Indiana Hoosiers Football
Wonder if Zander gets in this possession? Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Game Thread: Foster Farms Bowl - IU vs Utah 8:30ET on FOX
akhosrof replied to Hovadipo's topic in Indiana Hoosiers Football
Zander with the Vince McMahon walk! Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Game Thread: Foster Farms Bowl - IU vs Utah 8:30ET on FOX
akhosrof replied to Hovadipo's topic in Indiana Hoosiers Football
Need a big play here to spark the offense. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Game Thread: Foster Farms Bowl - IU vs Utah 8:30ET on FOX
akhosrof replied to Hovadipo's topic in Indiana Hoosiers Football
Interesting spread movement, it was at 7.5 when I picked my bowl pool. Looks like money has shifted toward us. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app -
Minnesota upset a PAC 12 team last night. Hopefully we can do the same. Sent from my iPhone using BtownBanners mobile app
