lillurk

Exactly — to be clear, circumstances have changed. I’ve been vocal that it’s time to move on but (as Stuhoo said elsewhere), making the tournament and winning a game or two would’ve made that look foolish this year. Dolson should’ve been praying for Arch to make the tourney for the obvious reasons but ALSO because it makes it obvious what to do: ride with him one more year unless a miracle happens this offseason, like Stevens and the Celts parting ways. Finishing poorly takes the cover away: it’s basically unanimous the program is DOA under Archie, even to the most ardent supporters. In sum: assuming IU misses the dance, I think you’ve gotta move on now rather than later.

A couple weeks ago I assumed IU would scrape into the tournament and it would be enough to get Miller another year. Sounds like that still might happen, per @Chris007 and others in the know. I wonder if the collapse down the stretch here is enough to change the calculus, though. I’m glad it’s not my call.

This team is going to finish about where a good coach would’ve had them if you told the good coach he couldn’t play TJD a single minute

The guy who transferred took a lot more heat from fans than he deserved. Flawed player but he’s helping a better team win. In fact, IU was clearly better last year with a couple guys who took lots of flak.

Yes, being 100% sincere here: best chance for a shoot-the-moon hire of a name we’d all love probably means rooting against the Celtics

538 currently projects the Celtics to the fifth seed, 39-33, between the Raptors and Heat. Almost no chance they miss the playoffs. I do wonder if, now that their rise has plateaued and even fallen off, ownership, Ainge, Stevens etc. may think the team would benefit from a shake-up if they continue to underwhelm, flame out in the playoffs, seem to be going the wrong way. It can’t hurt IU’s chances that the timing seems nice.

Two guys who would know on the Celtics situation here: In sum, they don’t really thing Stevens is in any hot water with Ainge and ownership. But they acknowledge the Celtics have some real problems and they’re curious how they respond going forward. Some of the problems, like injuries, are outside anyone’s control. Others are coaching-adjacent: not enough shots at the rim, an issue they mention has been consistent through Stevens’ time in Boston. In sum, probably nothing to get excited about as an IU fan. They mention this is really the first time there have been some cracks in the armor for Stevens, though. As some of us have speculated, if it doesn’t get fixed or there are internal issues, you could imagine they “need a new voice” after a first round playoff exit.

lol no idea how seriously to take this

Much as I would like a change soon, surely we can agree that the increased possibility of Stevens is potentially worth not having an answer by Easter 2021

It’s not just Xs and Os, it’s Ws and Ls.

No reason to think this would happen but if Tatum/Brown feel their run under Stevens is over, maybe there’s some movement

Actually it might be funnier to get one of Rutgers/UM, beat MSU, and drop the PU and tourney opener

Stating the obvious here but if Stevens gets a pink slip you have to make a godfather offer. Top 5 salary, huge pool for assistants, whatever he asks. The buyout would be a bigger pill but you don’t get many chances like that.

It’s going to down in the funniest/worst way. IU will lose both games this week, beat MSU, inevitably lose to PU, then split two conference tournament games to finish 14-14 (8-11). After they flame out on the second day of the conference tournament, the coach will say they deserve to make the NCAAs and they played a hard schedule. They won’t even make the NIT.

Not necessarily the worst four-year W/L record, by the way. But you can’t find a Knight/Davis/Sampson/Crean single-coach stretch where they missed three tournaments except Crean’s rebuild, the fourth year of which was a sweet sixteen run.

Two notes on recent tributaries in this discussion: 1. As mentioned previously, I can see the arguments for Matta but I worry that health, recruiting would hold him back. So a general reminder: you hire coaches for their future, not their pasts. 2. I think all of the following can be true at the same time: - Miller was a fine choice when hired (I’ve registered my preferences elsewhere but this is still true) -Miller has caught some bad breaks outside his control with injuries and recruiting. However, -EVERYONE deals with injuries and recruiting disappointments. I don’t really believe IU has had it worse in this regard than anyone. Plus recruiting is his job, having a team deep enough to withstand injuries is his job. IU has kept at least one scholarship open the last two years, so that excuse rings especially hollow. -IU has underperformed every year under Archie. Even if you say year 1 showed some promise, year 3 was not terrible...sure. Collectively a significant underperformance. If IU misses the tournament this year it will be the worst four-year run under a single coach since Knight took the job. -Finally, coaches only leave the starting blocks at a school one time. You can start slow and build — that’s what Arch tried to do — but you have to eventually get up to speed. That hasn’t happened.

I gotta say, thanks to @Chris007’s activity this morning, I have moved from “IU needs to move on” to “IU is going to move on sometime in the next 14 months,” and it feels good to let that wash over me.

I’ve kept quiet re: Matta but I think he’s riskier than a coach with his track record seems. Who knows how the back is, and not only can you map back health with OSU’s decline, but with recruiting decline at OSU, too. If he can’t land top-tier talent anymore, can he win? Probably more than Archie has, but maybe not as much as he did for awhile at OSU. On the other hand, he recruited Indiana well, his teams were good on both sides of the ball, and if the back’s fine, 53 is young enough to give you twenty good years if he gets it cookin’.

If TJD comes back, Lander makes a leap, and we’re only top 20, I won’t be impressed. Top 20 in year five after an all-American and most of the rest of your roster returns? That’s not a high bar at IU, especially when it’s your best work of the five years. It would also make a difference what comes after. If recruiting is middling, development of the other freshman is just average, say TJD leaves as does one of Lander or Franklin...well then we’re back on the bubble. Arch has to prove he can do more with the resources he’s got, because half this board could be a bubble team with the resources at IU.

I think there’s a reasonably likely scenario that’s an even more extreme version of this. Stumble into the NIT or barely the NCAAs this year...but then TJD unexpectedly comes back a la Donsunmu and IU is quite good next year as this year’s freshmen contribute more and Stewart adds some dependable backcourt scoring. So then Arch gets an extension, Lander and TJD leave, and we’re right back where we’ve been for three years.

It would be nice to have a “great coach,” but merely average-to-good coaches have gotten IU to the national championship game, made three sweet sixteens, won two conference titles, etc. in the last twenty years.

Like if you hire Archie Miller and it fails, most folks will shrug. If, four years ago, they’d hired a successful NAIA coach and gotten identical results, it would be seen as an unnecessary risk and major failure.

Yeah, actually hiring an NAIA coach doesn’t happen at a place like IU because if it fails it seems like a boneheaded move in retrospect.

Today seems like a good time for a reminder that IU probably could’ve had Aaron Henry, but they slow-played an offer for him in deference to Damezi Anderson

Yeah, and the hand-wringing about who’s next misses the point. There are the usual high-profile suspects we all know, @Stuhoo’s list of under-the-radar mid-major coaches, and so on...a good coach can make it work at a place with IU’s resources. There are dozens of NAIA coaches who could do it if given a chance.