lillurk

Last year, and compared to Brunk? Yep. And actually, IU has been better defensively with him on the court than off his entire career, which surprised me, per comparing his defensive points per possession on court vs. IU’s as a team each of those three years. He’s not Draymond Green or whatever, but he’s a plus on that side. (A hot take I haven’t shared here is I think IU will spend some time in lineups with TJD at the 5, Phinisee and Green at the guards, and some combo of Durham, Hunter, Thompson, and Smith at the 3/4 and some version of it might be its best lineup on both ends, but maybe that’s a different can of worms.)

Sure, I won’t rule out Brunk having a better year; players improve and fit differently. But they’ve both been good offensively and only Davis has been good defensively. I was concerned Davis wouldn’t be quick enough to handle the pick and roll defensive responsibility asked of him in the pack line but the numbers and the eye test have surprised me. Brunk seems more fleet of foot and this all could change.

I am glad IU landed Joey Brunk, and given De’Ron Davis’s injury history, they needed a solid alternative at the 5. I assumed Davis would start this year, health permitting, and even assumed Brunk starting yesterday was, as @Stuhoo said about other guys, part of working in new guys/getting an extended look. But @Chris007’s comment has me concerned that Brunk is going to start over Davis even though everything in their respective careers indicates Davis gives you more.

As I said in my reply to @Hoosierfan2017, this is about keeping defenses honest (for Smith and his teammates) as much as the actual made 3s. You’re cherry-picking on your VO comparison: as frosh Smith actually shot better than Vic on FTs by 6%. I’m not making some case that Smith 2019 = VO 2012; no one is. I’m saying that writing him off is premature and that players add skills or improve, and it isn’t always linear. A guy who had a rough year shooting the ball can improve and/or bounce back. In the big picture, I’ll add that at this point in his career, the things that would makes Smith more attractive to the NBA are things that would help IU.

This is fair — shooting development is one of my specific concerns under Archie so far. I think there are obvious mechanical changes Smith could make to his jumper. He shot better from 2, 3, and the line (67%) as a frosh. And I guess I believe shooting is a “natural” talent less than some. Food for thought: the difference between Smith’s sophomore 3p% and 34% was only 4 makes. That doesn’t seem crazy at all! I think the difference goes a long way to keeping defenses honest (recall the OSU game at SSAH) and that’s a modest increase.

Why are some folks assuming players can’t improve as shooters? He doesn’t have to be Klay Thompson, he needs to hit like 34% to be a demonstrably better player.

Also, those dismissing his defense are telling on themselves. Of course he was imperfect and prone to focus lapses, but how many guys In the conference could stay with Cassius Winston on a switch AND body MSU’s bigs on the same possession? No one is saying he’s an NBA player now, but the raw tools are unteachable.

As far as I know this hadn’t been reported or posted about previously: Furst’s brother is a freshman at IU https://www.insidethehall.com/2019/10/12/caleb-furst-to-continue-skill-development-while-assessing-college-options/

Yep, trying to figure this one out (but I’m not mad)!

I noticed that, too. De’Ron isn’t participating in the contests, either, though. I wonder if they’re doing a special recognition for the seniors.

Ok now I REALLY can’t wait to hear Raf say it

Whether he’s ever a Hoosier, I can’t wait to hear Bill Raftery say his name

I’m also encouraged by the FT%, which is a good correlative indicator of shooting ability

No one asked me, but I think you can imagine a scenario where next year is fine even if it falls short of the long-term expectations we have for the program. Do a few things have to go right? Yes, but no slim-to-no-chance sorts of things. I’ve decided not to get too optimistic because that won’t end well, but if IU shows some progress and makes the tournament, it could be in a good position for the following year.

I figured, but recruiting is weird, man

That would be a weird criteria for whether IU has a chance if that’s what you’re implying.

Chris007 had some insight a page or two back.

I think he may have played up a year in AAU (@Uspshoosier probably knows if he did), but I was worried about underwhelming AAU #s last year.

I might add that this applies to Smith, too. Does it seem like hustle and attitude could be consistently better? Of course. But the sort of player who can take a beating in the post from Nick Ward on one possession and stay in front of Cassius Winston the next don’t grow on trees. He’s only a sophomore, maturity can still come. Of course I wish that and the offensive breakout had come this year, but I think it’s nuts to write him off.

I do vaguely recall something around that time — if not in the press conference then in an interview. I’m not trying to pester you, Brass, I see that repeated all over the place. Three years to ramp up to peak effectiveness as a team on defense is fair, and overall the defense isn’t the current problem, it’s 32nd in KenPom (though it has been picked apart in conference pla, which is worrying). That’s not where we all hope it will be, but it’s good. I think that’s what @ap2345 meant. By year three you have most of your own personnel, you have players with experience across the roster running it even if they’re not your personnel (think Smith and Durham), you sprinkle in some younger guys who have the ability to fit in, etc. This video covers a huge part of the scheme. If the most notable signature item is to prevent dribble penetration, I would say the way they guard screens and opt not to switch seems a close second.

I’d appreciate a citation where he said the system took three years to learn. Even if he said as much, the idea that the pack line — which is a relatively straightforward variant of man-to-man — takes three years to learn should seem suspicious to anyone who’s ever played basketball. Now, if he said or meant it might take three years for the whole basketball program change to pay dividends, that seems believable.

I assume you’ve omitted Damezi because he’s more of a wing/forward than a guard and not for the same reason you omitted someone else?

This may turn out to be true, but it seems less likely to me than either: 1. The staff prefers another guard/wing in 2020 AND doesn’t want 2 such players in the class, or 2. The staff would like some other roster shakeout(s) to happen before offering and feels the waiting is unlikely to jeopardize their chances. Almost no program in the country is too good for a hometown top 100 kid.

Genuinely curious what the delay in offering is about here.

Right, thus drive-based stats can be a better measure of defense quality, mich like tempo-free numbers in hoops.