lillurk

The hit rate on top 10-ranked bigs is VERY good. Here’s everyone 6’11” and taller in the 247 composite top ten since 2014. I’ve included a few notable players 6’10” and taller and noted them. Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns, Harry Giles, Thon Maker, Mo Bamba, Deandre Ayton, Mitchell Robinson, Bol Bol, James Wiseman, Evan Mobley, Chet Holmgren, Dereck Lively, Kyle Filipowski, and Ware. (Under 6’11” notables: Marvin Bagley missed by 0.5”, while Myles Turner, Skal Labissiere, Diamond Stone, Ivan Rabb, Henry Ellenson, Michael Porter, Wendell Carter, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jalen Duren, and Jabari Smith Jr. all missed by 1”.) Every player was picked in the top 40 of the draft after their freshman season except Rabb, who was after his sophomore season. Lively and Filipowski will join that group this summer. All except Robinson, Stone, Ware (so far) , and Rabb were first round picks. There’s a range of outcomes, clearly, but basically everyone on the list was either 1. a good college player, 2. a good pro, or 3. both. Even Skal was something better than a total bust.

Also you’ll get wayyyyy more media traction on a regular week day than a holiday weekend. The program AND players want to be in the news.

He switched back to IU at 9:30. But yeah he’d originally said IU at like 8:42, switched to undecided, now back

Thought I remembered this name from his playing days and sure enough, he was the senior PG on the ‘04 Bama team that and to the regional final (the farthest they’ve ever been): https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/alabama/men/2004.html

Is Dalton touching down in Bloomington soon?

I tried earlier and it didn’t seem to move the needle but his site was acting weird. My hunch is it either kinda glitched, OR it’s basically saying Knecht minutes would be replacing Galloway/Bates/Gunn etc. minutes at the same level of quality. I’d want Knecht, of course, and depth has value. If the latter is true then it might be calculating him as a minus on D, as he’s clearly a plus offensive player.

Yeah, I like Knecht (who doesn’t), and agree guard or wing depth is my preference for the last open spot. Wouldn’t hate it if the theoretical guard/wing depth was a late coaching change shakeout frosh like Woody got the last two years. However, I don’t know who that would be if, as it seems, Garway Duel isn’t too interested

Apropos of…weekend visitors, tried Torvik’s rostercast w/X back, add Ware and Ledlum. Moves IU up to 17th.

I really hope they can unlock the ability and athleticism that make Ware unique. If so, he’s a potentially frontcourt special pairing with Reneau. I love Malik’s offensive skill set and think some pick-and-pop and trail shooting can be a part of his repertoire, but I was concerned when the bigs on the transfer radar didn’t seem to bring much floor spacing. Of course, that’s hard to find WITH rim protection too…

What weak hoops NIL does to a program

Not criticism but some things for everyone to keep in mind: 1. Someone posted the #s with walk-ons removed and it was about 20% of scholarship D1 players. 2. Some of those walk-ons will transfer down and get scholarships at lower levels, but the majority may just land…nowhere, at least on a scholarship. For example: I don’t know former IU walk-on Nate Childress but by all accounts he can really play, maybe he gets a master’s paid for and some cash in his pocket. But it’s also possible he just starts a career, or pursues more schooling without any basketball at all. 3. In fact some former scholarship athletes won’t get offers and will end up having made a bad call to leave a scholarship at their former school. That’s a shame. I don’t have the data but I recall there was some analysis last year for FB or BB that indicated a surprising # of players just don’t have a chair when the music stops. (FWIW I think this is probably not a new phenomenon but a new format in which it occurs; some of the Crean recruiting lowlights mentioned in this thread probably experienced a pre-portal version of this.) 4. National college student persistent rate at by institution is ~75%. I can think of reasons the athlete transfer rate would be different in EITHER direction so it’s possible the equilibrium ends up near the standard student rate when the dust settles. (That would INCLUDE students going pro or dropping out in non-persistence.) All of this is exacerbated by COVID after-effects still for a few reasons: 5. We still have about two more years of student-athletes with extra years for playing during 2020-2021. There’s some roster crunch created by giving everyone an extra year. (IMHO the Pomeroy argument for giving everyone an extra year permanently is a good one, check it out.) 6. As we expected at the time, a couple years of recruiting, evaluating, and developing were impacted by COVID too, and so the school and player hit rate/fit were probably diminished. If so we might logically assume that would lead to marginally more transfers while some of it “shakes out.” 7. Stating the obvious but for revenue sports, the one-time free transfer is very new and so we’re still developing norms. I wouldn’t be shocked if schools, coaches, or even conferences develop reputations, in fact some already have: it’s hard for non-grad transfers to get into Michigan, On3 ran a whole article on how behind PSU was in NIL, Musselman/Arkansas and Underwood/Illinois have taken plenty, etc. This could also lead to fewer transfers in the future as students who want development pick a school/coach/conference that’s strong there, but another set of students go to the highest bidder out of HS, then some of them realize that was not an ideal choice and use the free transfers to land somewhere great at working with trs. 8. Finally, there’s probably an upper limit on the average annual % of players who transfer. The true number will ebb and flow once the extra COVID years evaporate, but if we assume most players now WON’T sit out and will only transfer once unless as grads, and many students will use one (free or grad) but not both. I’d guess we’re actually close to the upper limit now for all the reasons listed above and the % some years hence may be slightly lower many years.

I like both, really think both are primary 4s that could slide out to play the 3 in some circumstances rather than the inverse. I like what you mention about Ledlum and think he’s maybe a higher upside play of the two: if you can marginally improve the shooting AND/OR believe he’ll hit better on a higher average quality of look, he’s my preference of the two.

Agree, it’s partially an indicator of confidence in Cupps, Banks, Gunn, and Newton to be backups at 1-3.

Ohhh baby. They really need a wing and Dalton looks like one of the best. IMO Ware/Shedrick/DeLoach feel like a “take one,” but I guess you could take two and still have space for one wing and one guard. Strange to me that they’ve mostly been on combo forwards (Battle and Ledlum) over wings/guards. I know not everyone’s in the pool.

I like DeLoach as a player, seems like a good kid. He wouldn’t be my favorite roster fit, but you can make it work with two non-shooters if they do other things well, and he does. On the other hand, is he a dude? I think yes. And thus you can make it fit.

If you’re waiting for megawatt stars, I think you’ll be disappointed. If you think you can build a successful team with guys who defend and bring something to the table on offense, they’re out there, and they may not be flashy. Newton had two triple-doubles this year, and no one thought he was a star last summer. But he also didn’t average double-figures for UConn — a team with fewer five-star recruits on its roster (0) than IU will have next year (1, at least: Malik Reneau).

Tristen Newton was the best player on a very bad East Carolina team last year. I don’t recall any but about him when he transferred to UConn last year. Keep that in mind during this offseason. Not every big name is the right fit.

Yes — would fit if Shedrick doesn’t pan out, IMO. Good player.

MSU aside, hard to feel confident at this point which B1G teams will be good next year. I have better guesses who’ll be bad.

And plenty of teams have made lovely backcourts out of players who weren’t particularly headline transfers.

In my mind there are some programs that fit into a “you can win a title here but probably need something special.” SF, Georgetown, Villanova’s titles came with truly amazing talent OR arguably the best coach of his era. Florida’s probably in that group, but in the way LOTS of power 5 programs are.

My one question with IU’s portal activity thus far is at the 3. I think it makes sense to take Shedrick and Sparks, even assuming Malik plays mostly at the 5. They clearly need guard depth. At least one of Ledlum/Battle fits at the 4, too, but IMO they’re not really 3s. Knecht or, should he transfer, Johnell make sense there, but so far there’s not a lot of movement on the former and who knows if the latter goes anywhere. The logical conclusion here is they feel alright with Trey, Banks, and Gunn there, I hope, not that the Ledlum/Battle minutes are at the 3.

Thanks. Checked Hoop Math but they don’t have it (maybe with a paid acct?), I’m sure Synergy does but I don’t have access.

Was going to look for c-&-s breakdowns for him, Ledlum, Love. Awesome, this sorta fits my eye with Battle. 80% of Ledlum’s 3s were assisted so it seems unlikely he’s drastically better off the catch.

People were mad he was in FL instead of at the IN state championships. They got real quiet when he brought back Malik Reneau.