Here is a long post that might surprise y'all a bit. I know I'm an incurable optimist in the assessment below, but I believe that optimism may be warranted:
Any of these guys who aren't graduating are strongly pre-disposed against transferring, in large part because they would have to sit out a year at a new school.
Archie coming in will only ease fears. His personality is very conducive to this; how many of you heard him speak and immediately reacted with " wow; he's a little bit crazy!" None? Well the players are feeling the same thing. AND...you can bet your sweet bippy (lol) that the current IU team is reaching out to the Dayton basketball community to find out exactly what it's like to play for Archie. And I betcha that helps...A LOT.
For the players who may have somewhere else to go without sitting a year (NBA or grad transfer) the decision is a real one. This covers CH, JBj, TB, OG, and maybe RoJo. Now we're weighing:
1) Do I have my degree/if so, am I interested in a grad degree?
2) Can I make money playing the game/does my family need that money asap?
3) Is my health potentially impacted by staying in school?
4) Do I foresee staying at IU as a chance to do something special now that Archie is here?
With these factors in mind, my speculation regarding who is most likely to leave is:
James Blackmon Jr (80%-ish): reportedly is very close to his degree. Health is a major issue - needs to leave while he is relatively whole physically
Thomas Bryant (50%-ish): I think he will go through the NBA draft process this time. Family can use the money, and I'm not that convinced he is super-interested in a college diploma. But, I don't think the NBA feedback will push him out, and I think he enjoys the heck out of being the big man on campus.
OG (40%-ish): May be a bit low in many eyes, but I know that OG's family will be a big influence, and that family (and OG) are very Oladipo-like interested in academics. OG marches to his own beat. A healthy OG can easily be a lotto pick after next year, making the financial question not as obvious as it seems.
Colin Hartman: (30%-ish): There's starting to be plenty of buzz that he may play again. A perfect fit for Archie's system (much like Juwan will be). His business career will always be there, and a year or more at Kelley will only enhance it. He's been rehabbing for a long time, and he knows he can play again at a high level.
Robert Johnson (15%-ish): And only if he's able to be a grad transfer-and I think he's not. Won't sit a year to play one year somewhere else. Combination of Archie making a good impression , and Tom Crean letting him know that IU is his best option.
Final prediction?
Only JBj goes, TB tests the draft waters and stays, ALL others come back except for Tim Priller or Grant Gelon (or maaaaybe CuJo, who doesn't see playing time in his future), Justin Smith and Al Durham are our 2017 class, and Archie gets the luxury of going all in on 2018 recruiting.