Shooter

I appreciate the people bringing us info. But there is something in my gut that leads me to distrust the Pearl talk. Probably all of the Billy Donovan and Brad Stevens talk the last couple of times around... only to make predictable and somewhat disappointing hires in the end. Pearl has Auburn rolling. Is he really going to leave that to start over here in his mid 60s? May makes so much sense, he would take the job, and he'd be a breath of fresh air compared to what we've had. If we pull someone even better than May, great. But I'm not getting my hopes up.

Not exactly that, but I did hear something interesting about May. Dusty May has apparently begun recruiting Braylon Mullins. I assume that Mullins is unlikely to go to FAU.. so to me, this suggests that May thinks he'll be coaching at a bigger school in the Midwest next year. IU is not the only school looking of course.

I'd take any of the above. I'm just saying, Pearl would not necessarily be coming in to a rebuild - he could be competitive from day one

I have been skeptical of the Pearl rumors. But if Dolson really has Pearl lined up, I don't see any way that Woodson returns. I would think the combination of Bruce Pearl and our NIL would give us a decent chance at retaining our core players + McNeeley.

14 major conference teams on that list of teams with 6+ portal players. 2 tourney teams, 2 more bubble teams. The other 10 won't make it

Scary thought: we are actually quite lucky to be 16-13, 8-10. We have won most of our close games, and have not been competitive in most of our losses. Our "luck" rating on Kenpom is 12th in the country (out of 362 teams). We are ranked #95 on Kenpom. Other than Crean's first two years under sanctions, this is the worst IU team in the Kenpom database (goes back through 1997). Worse than any of Archie's teams. Worse than Crean's bad years that got him fired, in between his conference championships. Certainly worse than any of Knight's teams. The only two seasons even comparable are Crean year 3, and Mike Davis 2004. I am concerned that an 8-12 or 9-11 final conference record will mask how bad this season has been to IU decision makers who are only casual basketball observers. This is likely our worst non-sanctions team in 50 years. And it's not a young team and coach that will grow together and pay dividends later. Our best player will go pro. I expect to return only 6 players from this roster - and that's an optimistic scenario that assumes we don't lose the main guys we really want to keep. We have only one recruit signed for next season. The coach who put us here turns 66 this month... it would be madness to retain him.

Interestingly this is how Dusty May got his break. Was an assistant at Louisiana Tech when his head coach was fired. He impressed incoming coach Mike White enough that White retained him, and eventually took him to Florida too. So if it is May, I'd assume he'd be at least somewhat open to the idea.

People will renew their tickets, but they can still donate less. I am far from a big-time donor, but I got football tickets this year and increased my varsity club donation level just to improve my bball seats. Probably won't do either for next year if Woodson returns. And like you said, NIL will also take a hit.

Thought experiment. If we keep Woodson, how good would next season need to be in order for him to get a fifth year? In my opinion, we'd have to be at least as good as last season. And even then, there would still be grumbling if we make an early tourney exit. If he misses the tourney again he's definitely gone. Even if we sneak in as a 8-10 seed or something, I think he's still likely gone. So the question - how likely is it that we are at least as good as last season? If you're the AD and you think that is unlikely, what's the point in waiting a year? Just move on now.

I was going to make the same post. Butler was trailing with less than 2 min left vs 13 seed Murray State in 2010. The next year, they beat ODU on a buzzer beater in round 1, and then Pitt misses a game winning FT with one second left in round 2. That's basketball though. Every team has those games, the good coaches seem to win them more often than not. But even without the tourney runs, I watched Stevens coach in Hinkle at least 10 times and it was clear back then he was something special. I haven't watched May nearly as much, but I do get some hints of that in him. All of his players coming back to FAU instead of going to portal this season is one of the most impressive things about him. He has built something special from absolutely nothing.

Butler was up one when Mack fouled at halfcourt. Pitt made the first FT. So they were tied, not ahead when they missed the second FT and then fouled going for the rebound. Matt Howard made one FT to win it. One of the craziest endings I have ever witnessed.