IU Prof

Brad Stevens

I don't think Dolson will follow the Cignetti hire for the next BB coach. He'll want a proven winner at the high major level. Or Brad Stevens.

I wonder if the boosters who decided to buy Woodson a team are satisfied with their RoI at this point...

If?!? I think he already has.

IU would not be favored against Gonzaga or Arizona in Atlantis, should they get to play them.

I will say, kudos to the staff for scheduling this game. It's a great tune up before things start for real.

2 Ts in one half of an exhibition game?!?

The new offense looks a lot like last year's offense to me, just with a more dynamic PG.

I know I'm in the minority here, but I don't think that this roster is *that* talented. And I don't think the talent that has been assembled is particularly well-tailored to play with one another. Undoubtedly the roster has more dynamic guards than last year, but Rice and Carlyle largely feature overlapping skillsets, so they aren't really complementary pieces in my mind. And then it appears that Mgbako is going to be penciled in at the 3, even though it seems clear he's better at the 4, in order to once again allow Reneau to play out of position at the 4. Sure, Rice and Carlyle will be able to take more guys off the dribble than the backcourt last year. But whenever Reneau and Ballo are on the court together, the guards are going to run into a lot of congestion once they get to the paint. Aside from Goode, we haven't while added any lockdown shooters for the new guards to dish to when they do break the defense down. I know people are hopeful Rice and Carlyle's 3 pt. shooting % will improve significantly from last year, that is hardly a guarantee. And we haven't even gotten to Woodson's shortcomings coaching on the defensive end. So while I'd be happy to be wrong, I just don't see the high ceiling many of you do for this roster, especially with this coaching staff. I think that a top 30-40 finish and a 12-8 B1G record are much more likely than a B1G Championship or Final Four run. And while that would certainly be an improvement over last year, I don't think that would be anyone's idea of a successful season. Again, hope I'm wrong, though!

I'm not confident that Stevens will ever come to IU, but if he did, I'm highly confident he'd win big. I don't think there is a better.coach out there, Hurley included.

Some interesting stuff on the other board in the Mullins thread on one Brad Stevens...

This is also the most likely situation by far. Given all of the variables (coaching, shooting, defense, etc.), I'd say there's a roughly 10 percent chance of winning big, 20 percent chance of losing big, and a 70 percent chance of in-between.

Most anticipated phone call for IU since this one? (Sorry!)

I get that too. My guess is that he'll point to posts like this after the fact to make himself seem omniscience.

I know all that. I just don't think that anyone knows what Haralson is going to do, probably including those on the staff, even though many want to claim otherwise. This is just covering bases to look good either way.

Reads to me like a wanna be insider laying the foundation to be able to claim he was right regardless of the outcome.

Can't predict the last two games in Atlantis until he knows the matchups.

I'm guessing the win total ends up closer to 11 than 17. 13-7 looks about right to me.

IU got routed by Nebraska 3 times last year. I get there has been a lot of roster turnover for both teams, but that game at Lincoln (this squad's first true road game, no less) doesn't strike me as a guaranteed W.

Kind of like Mike Woodson saying he was coming back to IU to win championships, and then insisting he was doing his job after missing the tournament?

I may have missed it, but what interview was that? Thanks!

I think what some people are missing is that while 3 point shooting volume is an issue, it's just one of many with Woodson's system. If it were just a trade off between 3s or close 2s by TJD or Reneau, that would be one thing. But that isn't what we're seeing. Instead, IU consistently shoots substantially more long to mid-range 2s than is mathematically efficient. Here is IU's full season shot chart compared to UConn's. As you can see, IU shoots many more long 2s than does an efficient modern offense. This is a schematic issue, not a talent issue. While one can at least semi plausibly argue that Woodson's hand was forced on 3 point shooting by a lack of backcourt talent last year (although it doesn't really hold up over 3 years for the reasons a number of people have noted), that's hard to reconcile with IU's over reliance on long 2s that same season. If the team is bad at shooting, then there is no reason to be taking so many mid ranged jumpers. But that is a shot that Woodson's system prioritizes, even though the analytics on the inefficiency of such an approach are clear. Thus, while a lack of explanation point shooting volume is certainly an issue, it's just one symptom of the larger problem: Woodson's insistence on running an outdated offensive scheme.

This whole argument has gotten tiresome. First it's that Woodson’s system works, the players just didn't take the shots. Then it's that Woodson didn't want guys to shoot (even though both Kopp and Galloway were very effective year 2), because IU's guards sucked last year. Either way, the blame falls on Woodson. It was utterly apparent that the backcourt talent and depth was insufficient heading into last season. If Woodson didn't trust XJ/Gallo/Gunn/etc., then that just makes the failure to upgrade even more problematic. It's been three years, and every year IU has been in the 300s in 3 point shooting volume under Woodson. Players or scheme, that's a coaching issue. End of story.

You two months ago: "If I wanted to watch a team with a poor, antiquated offense who doesn't defend the 3 point line I'd simply revert to watching Mike Woodson." https://btownbanners.com/topic/12809-general-coach-candidate-news/?page=802&tab=comments#comment-866651 You last night: "There’s nothing wrong with Woodson’s system" https://btownbanners.com/topic/14310-fire-coach-woodson-assessment-of-former-posters/?page=1047&tab=comments#comment-903105 You this morning: "We didn't bring back Mgbako and pay a boatload to get Carlyle and Rice to run the same offense." https://btownbanners.com/topic/14310-fire-coach-woodson-assessment-of-former-posters/?page=1048&tab=comments#comment-903176 Not confusing at all...