IU Prof

This is the part that worries me. A lot rudest on who the "everyone" is there.

That's not necessarily true. It's possible he would feel jilted or otherwise too settled to move 6 years from now, but if IU is truly his dream job, he'll likely move when the opportunity arises. Just as if Pearl is willing to make the jump now.

While I don't disagree, it wouldn't be hard for the administration to save face for Woodson on the way out by arguing that he did build a bridge. They could credibly argue that he not only got them back in the NCAAs two years in a row, but made the brand relevant again to high level recruits. And now, that that base has been established, its time to hand it off to someone else, as had always been the plan... Just need to get Woodson on board with an (in)voluntary retirement.

I think the ceiling of the IU program is considerably higher than that of Auburn's. So IU would increase his odds of winning a national championship IMO. The only mitigating factor is if he really does intend to retire after 5 or 6 years, and feels it would take 2 to 3 years to build IU up to where Auburn is presently. Otherwise, IU is clearly the better job by a considerable measure for a variety of reasons (fan support, recruiting base, media attention, shoe company, etc.).

I think this is reasonable. The next question then is what are the odds that Woodson can achieve that given the state of the roster? I think it's about 30% at best. But I think you'd need to be at least 60% certain (and possibly even higher) in order to being him back.

I'm saying, what would they say Woodson needs to do to earn a fifth year after 24-25? Not what they think the team will do (which, I agree, is unknowable at this point).

One thing I think would be interesting to hear from those who think Woodson should get another year is what the expectation should be for 24-25 if he returns? W/L, conference standing, NCAAs, etc. People may be talking past each other to some extent, with those advocating for another year simply having lesser standards for the program, thus the difference of opinion on Woodson's chances of "turning it around."

I agree with this. But I do think there is potentially a difference between 15-16 and 16-15 (or, perhaps, 16-16), if the administration is looking for a reason not to move on. So in that sense, last night means one more IU win now guarantees a non-losing season, which isn't nothing.

Omen it was...

Does anyone think they could realistically bring Woodson back again next year if he finishes sub-.500 this year?

One thing that occurred to me today...if the Athletic Department is operating under the assumption Woodson will be back, doesn't someone need to offer public support at this point? The fact that Dolson hasn't given an interview backing him is potentially pretty damning, given the potential recruiting implications (Queen) of letting Woodson twist in the wind like this. Plus Woodson then becomes more defensive, throws players under the bus, etc., increasingly the likelihood of transfers, and decreasing the probability he can turn it around.

This is the biggest red flag to me for Pearl, if true. Edit: Now if the son stays behind at Auburn, that's a whole other matter.

I think this is a great point. There is no identity now for the program. You need to set the vision before you hire the coach.

Honest question for those who believe the problems at IU go much deeper than just a string of bad hires -- what is it that needs fixed, exactly, and why aren't those same issues preventing the women's team from succeeding?

I think this sums it up quite well.

I really don't mean to discount FAU's run last year, but I do think it's relevant to at least point out that the highest seed they played was a 3. I know others have mentioned they barely got by Memphis in the first round. That's still a great run, but drawing a 16 in the round of 32 was a huge advantage.

Crap, you're right. His original contract said the buyout would be the same as his remaining salary owed. And he just signed a $17+ million extension. So he's probably out. Bummer. P.S. It does drop by half if the AD leaves Iowa State. Probably won't happen, but you never know.

That's fair, but I think 2-22 to Sweet 16 is OMG. Especially with sustained success subsequently to show it wasn't a fluke. In arguably the nation's best conference.

He took over an Iowa Stare team that literally went 2-22 (0-18 in the Big 12) and had them in the Sweet 16 year one. Year two he was .500 in conference (with another NCAA Appearance), and Year 3 they are Top 10 in the country. Also wildly successful (and quickly) at SDSU. The UNLV stint wasn't great, admittedly. That's my biggest concern.

TJ Otzelberger

Why wouldn't you take that at IU? Yes it was a bit of a slow build, but presumably that would be quicker here with the portal, NIL, etc. After that, aside from a wonky COVID year, you can't ask for much better.

A few random thoughts: 1) I don't get the concern with Pearl's age. Yes you would ideally hire a guy who's going to be around for 20 years, but 6-8 is all you can realistically expect. Hell, 8 years ago was 3 coaching staffs ago here. He'll give you 6-8 barring something unforeseen. And he can win a championship here. 2) Nothing new here, but my biggest concern with retaining Woodson is that there are multiple problems he has to fix in one off-season. The problem is both (i) not enough talent and (ii) maximizing the talent he does have. IU needs better players, but even with this roster the team should be performing better. You can convince yourself one of those issues can be fixed in an off-season, but both is a stretch. 3) While Pearl, Oats, or May may well prevail, any coaching search that doesn't seriously kick the tires on TJ Otzelberger is missing the boat...

It's both.

Meanwhile, TJ Otzelberger has got Iowa State tied for first in the Big XII heading into tomorrow night's showdown vs. Houston. Just saying...

Can't find the extension agreement, but needless to say, his original contract with Auburn included no such clause: https://www.scribd.com/doc/228491265/Bruce-Pearl-s-six-year-contract-at-Auburn