RaceToTheTop

I understand that, but IMO the definition of being a bubble team changes throughout the season even if it isn't defined so. The bubble starts much larger than it ends on both sides.

No, I get that. Personally, I don't think many IU fans thought we weren't a bubble team before the Arkansas game. I imagine we are going to be a bubble team for the rest of the year and we'll be on one side or the other most of the rest of the season.

Typically there is a regression to the mean on projections for the reason I posted just above in the response on Pom. I think if Sagarin went on projection percentages, they would say we are favored to win 7 of the 18 with an average number of victories being 8. We're a bubble team with a bubble projections. I think that is why we had such a reaction about the loss to Arkansas yesterday.

I assume by projected at 2-7 you mean that they have us favored in 2 and as the underdog in the other 7. But what I remember from Pom when I had a subscription, that give percentage projections for each game and the overall record projection is based on those projections. I.e.: let's say that being a 2 point underdog gives you a 40% chance to win. If you were an 2 point underdog in 10 straight games, each would be projected as a loss, but your projected record would be 4-6.

brass -- I think by projected he meant most basketball services -- i.e., Lunardi, Sporting News Athlon etc -- did not consider them to be a tournament team. Putting the following numbers in this thread from a question you were posed in the IU/Arkansas thread in which you felt that IU would not be a tournament team based on upcoming schedule and how IU had played the last five games. In full disclosure, I don't know how the numbers are going to bear out and am running them through as I post. I will be using Sagarin's numbers (which are similar to Pom's in terms of overall rating for IU -- Pom has IU at 40 and Sagarin has IU with a predictor ranking of 39 -- because Sagarin is pretty straightforward in terms of pointspreads. In terms of the last five games, Pom currently has IU with a predictor rating of 84.4. I think it was at about 85 before the last string of games, but here is what Sagarin would have predicted for the last five games based on current power ratings: IU at Wisky: Wisky by 3 Nebraska at IU: IU by 13 IU v UConn (N): IU by 3 IU v Notre Dame (N): IU by 3 Arkansas v IU: IU by 3 I'd say with that group of games, you expect that you're not going to lose the Nebraska game (we almost did) and in the other four games, 1-3 would be a disaster; 2-2 below average; 3-1 a decent result; ecstatic with 4-0. We went 2-2....the biggest disappointment being we were 2-1 going into the last of the four games. I believe you stated you thought that we would need to win 8 more games to make the tournament -- I think it might take 9 (either nine in the Big Ten or 8 + at least 1 in the BTT). Anyway, here is the Sagarin predictions for the rest of IU's games based on team's current ratings: at Maryland Maryland by 8 Northwestern IU by 13 Ohio State Ohio State by 3 at Rutgers Rutgers by 1 at Nebraska IU by 6 Michigan State Michigan State by 4 Maryland Maryland by 1 at Penn State Penn St by 4 at Ohio State Ohio State by 9 Purdue IU by 1 Iowa IU by 2 at Michigan Michigan by 7 at MInnesota Minnesota by 4 Penn State IU by 2 at Purdue Purdue by 6 at Illinois Illinois by 2 Minnesota IU by 3 Wisconsin IU by 4

Do you know if this was an issue for Christian Keeling?

Why is that? Purdue hasn’t seemed to have that issue.

On this, I agree. And I’m not happy after we whiffed on some 2019s that we didn’t bring in any grad transfers to shore that up.

As I remember it, Archie said that if he wanted to come to IU he could but that he had indicated to Wright that he keep his commitment to Dayton. Anyway, at the time I think Wright’s preference was not to come in in the same year that Phinisee did because of the likelihood of a split in playing time. Now it obviously looks like he didn’t need to worry about that.

I believe that 4 of the 8 were in the last 90 seconds when we were trying to catch up. The point was that it seems like you are taking a ton of threes when you aren’t making any.

Considering that he had tremendous blood clot issues in his legs last year, I think they are going to be pretty precautionary with any bruising.

We are currently under the scholarship limit by two this year. We do currently have one scholarship available for next year.....if there a transfer, there would be two. That said, I don't know that there are 2020 impact guys in which we are high on their board. Grad transfer shooter is essential.

I think you are missing my point. OF COURSE the ones that succeed adapt to power five play.....thus, they are successful. My point is there isn't much movement from power five head coach to power five head coach UNLESS it's what once would consider a step down in caliber....i.e., Tubby Smith from UK to Minnesota and Tom Crean from Indiana to Georgia.

It was disappointed that he whiffed on grad transfer guards at the minimum when we had an open scholly.

Al Durham: ejected Rob Phinissee: 23 minutes, 1 of 3 from the floor, missed two big technical free throws, 1 assist, 3 turnovers. Armaan Franklin: 22 minutes, 2 of 8 from the field (0/4 from three), 1 assist, 2 turnovers. I don't like the me first shot selection that Green takes, but I'm tired of how passive our other guards are. We have an incredible lack of shooting and the guys who should be our better shooters are incredibly passive.....except Green, who is overly aggressive. But at the end of the day, Green was 5/16 and 4/12 from three with 3 assists and 3 turnovers and the rest of the guards were 4 of 13 and 1 of 6 from three with 4 assists and 7 turnovers. You aren't going to win games when your guards are 9 of 29 from the field and 5 of 19 from three. I have been incredibly disappointed in RP this season......he doesn't look for his shot which makes him so much easier to guard. There were people who said after Franklin's game against ND that he should be now getting a huge chunk of minutes. I didn't think he had a 'break out game'.....he had a 'really good game'. There were no signs prior to that game that he was a solid perimeter shooter so there wasn't really any reason to believe that there was going to be a carry over.

The shooting is the biggest issue and honestly it’s where I have the biggest issue with Miller. Pretty damn to coach a high caliber offense when you don’t have shooters....but the lack of shooters are on the recruiting end.

So just a couple, and both were assistants at big time programs for 10 to 15 years. Unfortunately there aren’t many guys like that left.....assistants at high majors are pretty mobile.

Go back and reread my previous post. I edited it to indicate I made a mistake and apologized to you.

Edited my bad....just read that you were replying to another poster referring to that it being Archie’s third year at IU. I apologize.

They aren’t. Leal is pretty good....Galloway’s shot at this time needs work.

How many successful high major guys did not start out as successful mid major guys?

Cool. Then fire him right now, right? Maybe just not bother to play the rest of the season since the past is necessarily what the future will be.

Which is 1000% fine.

Point to ANY post in this thread where I “made excuses” for Archie. I’ll ******* wait.

You want guarantees on anything, don’t watch sports. That’s just silly.