Shooter

Almost. 3-5 without, 8-5 with. Through Feb 27 we were 3-5 in Big Ten without him, and 3-5 in Big Ten with him. Identical. Since his latest return we have run off 5 in a row. I completely agree that his return is one of the reasons why we have improved, but not that it is the only reason or even the main reason.

Not sure if you are referring to me, but if so you are completely misunderstanding what I'm saying. We are definitely a better team with a healthy Xavier Johnson.

That is definitely not true, since we started the conference season 2-0 without him

The disingenuous part is that we had X for the first 6 games of the season, and we were terrible. We initially got better after his first injury - the first two games without him were a blowout over Maryland, and a road win at Michigan (a quad 1 or 2 win at the time). Then he came back and we still stunk... he got hurt again and we continued to stink. I am happy we are playing well over the last 5. X has been part of it - his defense helps, and he was very good in the comeback vs Maryland. The other four games, he has a total of 14 points, 15 assists, and 16 turnovers. Let's just be honest about his impact.

True, but only 2 of them are new transfers in their first seasons at that school. The others are multi-year guys. I think poaching good underclassmen from mid majors is a very viable strategy, and not the same as pulling 6-7 dudes from the portal every year.

I'm seeing a bunch of people lump Trey and Leal together. What did Trey say that was controversial? I listened to his speech, and it was basically a normal senior day speech. Maybe I missed something.

I'm sure it is frustrating, and I'm sure it feels good to run off 4 in a row. Despite that - it's not a good look for him to be taking a victory lap calling out the haters when his team still isn't even on the bubble, and he doesn't have a single recruit lined up for next season.

Not that it matters that much, but Woodson went 9-11 in the league his first season. He's 31-29 in the Big Ten through three years.

Galloway didn't say anything of the sort. He gave a standard senior day speech, then at the end said he's coming back for next year. Thanked the IU fans, called them the best in the country. Leal gave a short speech, said he was coming back, and told the fans to "chill". It was a little aggressive, but I have no problem with him supporting his coach. Woodson's comments rubbed me the wrong way for sure. I got the vibe that Mike Woodson thinks Mike Woodson IS Indiana basketball. So if you criticize or question anything Mike Woodson does, you're not a "true fan" of IU.

I'm not going to go through every team you mentioned, but your examples appear to be misleading. UConn did have 4 transfers in their 9 man rotation. But only one was a key guy, Tristen Newton. The others were role players getting <20 min per game. Their core guys were mostly homegrown. San Diego St's leading scorer was Matt Bradley, who did transfer in. But last year was his second year in the program. Multi-year transfers are kind of a different deal. Also, two of their top 5 scorers were homegrown SDSU guys so I don't know where you got 4 out of their top 5 from. It was only 2 of their top 5 that were new to the team last year. I'll concede K State was an example of a mostly transfer team having success. I think they are the exception rather than the rule.

I think the biggest argument against Woodson being able to build a successful team in the spring, is the fact that he already tried to do it this year and failed.

This lineup could be decent next year. Could be really good on offense. And Gallo works fine as a starter if he's surrounded by shooters. But based on Woodson's track record and public comments, it seems more likely we replace Ware with a worse center from the portal and go big again. I wouldn't be shocked if he starts Liam at the 2. My concerns with Woodson go beyond the prospects for next season. He's not building a program. In three recruiting classes, he has only brought in two multi-year "building block" type players, Reneau and Cupps - and it's not clear yet if Cupps is good enough. He's done well on a few high end recruits and portal guys. But we shouldn't have 5-7 open spots every spring.

Exactly right. We have a 66 year old coach on the hot seat. His contact only has 3 years left, and you certainly can't extend him. How is he going to recruit high school kids? Just rip off the band-aid now.

Internet rumors or not, Dusty May would take this job. That's real. I just don't understand the upside with retaining Woodson.

I'll agree with that, May is not a sure thing. Almost nobody is. Pearl got his first major job at Tennessee, at age 45, after 4 years as a small school D-1 head coach. Dusty is 47, and has been a small school D-1 coach for 6 years now. Pearl coached D-II before that, while Dusty was a high major assistant - both are valid ways of working up the ladder. If IU can nab an established coaching star, great. But we haven't been able to do that the last two times around. I would be happy if we end up with May, certainly happier than continuing on with Woodson.

And dozens more who have succeeded after first showing their talent at lower levels. Including Bruce Pearl

I appreciate the people bringing us info. But there is something in my gut that leads me to distrust the Pearl talk. Probably all of the Billy Donovan and Brad Stevens talk the last couple of times around... only to make predictable and somewhat disappointing hires in the end. Pearl has Auburn rolling. Is he really going to leave that to start over here in his mid 60s? May makes so much sense, he would take the job, and he'd be a breath of fresh air compared to what we've had. If we pull someone even better than May, great. But I'm not getting my hopes up.

Not exactly that, but I did hear something interesting about May. Dusty May has apparently begun recruiting Braylon Mullins. I assume that Mullins is unlikely to go to FAU.. so to me, this suggests that May thinks he'll be coaching at a bigger school in the Midwest next year. IU is not the only school looking of course.

I'd take any of the above. I'm just saying, Pearl would not necessarily be coming in to a rebuild - he could be competitive from day one

I have been skeptical of the Pearl rumors. But if Dolson really has Pearl lined up, I don't see any way that Woodson returns. I would think the combination of Bruce Pearl and our NIL would give us a decent chance at retaining our core players + McNeeley.

14 major conference teams on that list of teams with 6+ portal players. 2 tourney teams, 2 more bubble teams. The other 10 won't make it

Scary thought: we are actually quite lucky to be 16-13, 8-10. We have won most of our close games, and have not been competitive in most of our losses. Our "luck" rating on Kenpom is 12th in the country (out of 362 teams). We are ranked #95 on Kenpom. Other than Crean's first two years under sanctions, this is the worst IU team in the Kenpom database (goes back through 1997). Worse than any of Archie's teams. Worse than Crean's bad years that got him fired, in between his conference championships. Certainly worse than any of Knight's teams. The only two seasons even comparable are Crean year 3, and Mike Davis 2004. I am concerned that an 8-12 or 9-11 final conference record will mask how bad this season has been to IU decision makers who are only casual basketball observers. This is likely our worst non-sanctions team in 50 years. And it's not a young team and coach that will grow together and pay dividends later. Our best player will go pro. I expect to return only 6 players from this roster - and that's an optimistic scenario that assumes we don't lose the main guys we really want to keep. We have only one recruit signed for next season. The coach who put us here turns 66 this month... it would be madness to retain him.

Interestingly this is how Dusty May got his break. Was an assistant at Louisiana Tech when his head coach was fired. He impressed incoming coach Mike White enough that White retained him, and eventually took him to Florida too. So if it is May, I'd assume he'd be at least somewhat open to the idea.

People will renew their tickets, but they can still donate less. I am far from a big-time donor, but I got football tickets this year and increased my varsity club donation level just to improve my bball seats. Probably won't do either for next year if Woodson returns. And like you said, NIL will also take a hit.

Thought experiment. If we keep Woodson, how good would next season need to be in order for him to get a fifth year? In my opinion, we'd have to be at least as good as last season. And even then, there would still be grumbling if we make an early tourney exit. If he misses the tourney again he's definitely gone. Even if we sneak in as a 8-10 seed or something, I think he's still likely gone. So the question - how likely is it that we are at least as good as last season? If you're the AD and you think that is unlikely, what's the point in waiting a year? Just move on now.