IU Prof

For those that think we're going to take another run at Stevens...if we strike out on all the top tier candidates (Oats, Beard, etc.), does the prospect of a Woodson-type hire motivate a donor to step up for another $2-3 million per year to go after Stevens again? Presumably, there would be a $$ value that would be too high for Brad to turn down. The real conspiracy theory would be that Dolson is floating Woodson, etc., to scare the donor base into ponying up more for Stevens.

If you take Dolson at his word from the press conference, he wants someone innovative with his pulse on where the game is going offensively, and a modern style that appeals to recruits. To me, that means Stevens, Oats, Drew, or Beilein, and maybe Musselman. Not Beard, not Matta, not Moser. Edit: Enfield might fit too, but would generally be a bad idea for other reasons (mediocre track record, lack of Midwest connections, ties to the FBI scandal, etc.).

In fact, call me crazy, but I'm so committed to the Oats candidacy that at this point I'd actually prefer him to Stevens, in light of the events of the last week or so.

My thinking is that I'm not sure Oats has the name recognition to get a donor to pay out a $12 million buyout right now. But if he takes Alabama to a final four in his second year, then maybe a donor thinks he's worth the investment. If he wins the title, though, it would be hard for him to leave.

Best case Oats scenario is he gets bounced in the Final Four. That might be enough to get a big donor to step up to pay the buyout, but not so far (title) that Oats has to stay.

Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.

Could also explain slow rolling the interview on IU's end.

I think someone mentioned earlier that Oats' buyout drops precipitously after the first year. Here are some more details: https://www.al.com/alabamabasketball/2021/02/details-on-nate-oats-new-19-million-contract-buyout-structure.html Definitely doesn't seem like the structure that someone 100% committed to staying in Tuscaloosa long-term would seek. It's also interesting that he signed a big (for them) extension with Buffalo just a couple weeks before leaving for Alabama.

All speculation, but I was just thinking that I'd put the odds at ~80-85% that the next coach is on this list: Beard, Beilein, Drew, Musselman, and Oats.

FWIW re Oats, Buffalo was a Nike school too.

Regarding Nate Oats, I think it's certainly plausible he could want to remain at Alabama. It gives him an opportunity to routinely be in the mix for Final Fours and National Championships, without the spotlight that comes with a basketball-first school (ala Holtmann). But it's also possible that he'd rather be at a basketball-first school, and a top 5 or 6 program historically, along with an opportunity to return to the Midwest. Only Oats knows. If it were UNC, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, or UCLA hiring a coach, though, I don't think anyone would be surprised if someone like Oats decided to accept the offer even if Alabama was paying him good money. There are only so many blue blood job opportunities available. So for that reason, it isn't crazy to think that Oats (or Beard, Drew, etc.) would view IU desirably even if they are generally content where they are.

Weird. Stevens really isn't very good with words off the top of his head.

What'd he say?

Why the 27th?

I'm a big Oats fan. He was building a monster at Buffalo, and has hit the ground running at Alabama. The MAC tends to play a more physical style of ball, similar to the B1G, so I believe his style would translate to IU. My concern is, if you are Oats, why sign a new contract with a big buyout a few weeks ago if you are interested in IU. He had to know the job could come open, and that a $12 million buyout would hamper his negotiating leverage should IU reach out.

There usually is a black SUV around there. Doubt it means anything.

Yeah, I get that. I edited my post above to clarify what I was saying. It's not clear what a simple physical is going to tell us that would disprove whatever Matta feels about his health. Are we worried about his cholesterol? His white blood cell count? His back, specifically? If the back, what exactly is the standard we are using to determine if he's healthy enough to coach? In the abstract the idea sounds plausible, but the specifics don't actually make much sense.

Interesting. If true, that would mean the IU Athletic Department's immediate squashing of that rumor was untruthful. I'm still skeptical, just because I don't even know what a failed physical would mean in this context. What would we be concerned about specifically that would physically prevent him from taking the job? It just doesn't pass the smell test to me, no offense intended Chris (I know you are just passing along what you heard, which I appreciate)! Edit: I get that he has health issues that could prevent him from giving it his all, but it's not clear what a doctor would tell us in that regard that would cause us to discount Matta's own assessment of his condition.

I'd also add that I wouldn't place any urgency on the search just because a few guys enter the portal. The program needs a massive infusion of talent. Losing a few current players, even someone like Franklin, might be a step back next year, but is a small price to pay for getting the right hire in place for the long-term.

It seems to me it makes perfect sense that Dolson would move from Stevens to interviewing retirees and IU grads. All of the other top candidates were still coaching until this past weekend, so it would make perfect sense to get the interviews with the others out of the way while you wait for your top candidates to free up. That way you can say you covered all your bases, and don't waste the down time.

On the plus side, if we hire an inexperienced IU alum we'll be in a position to go back through another failed pursuit of Brad Stevens in 4 or 5 years...

Agree with this entirety. If it ends up being Beilein after we've kicked the tires on Beard, Musselman, Oats, etc., I could live with that. But if it's Beilein this week, then no.

Didn't mean it as a gotcha, just that it would suggest that there is a backup plan in place!

Love the info you bring, but a week ago didn't you say on HSN that your source said it wasn't Stevens, but that everyone would be happy with the hire?

I'm not sure what a physical for a HC position would entail. Would that even be legal under the ADA? This seems highly unlikely to me.