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Aaron

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Everything posted by Aaron

  1. That is as good as you could of hoped. This is the game where not having Holmes to go up against Hillmon hurts badly. We can survive without Holmes until Iowa just fine for next three weeks given schedule. After tonight it's bad teams in conference or teams that lack bigs (that even goes if we have to make up MSU, Rutgers or Illinois in next three weeks), but tonight not having Holmes tonight is a massive problem.
  2. I would say Berger and Holmes are WNBA players. When you have five top notch starters (when Holmes is healthy) you don't need a superstar like Hillmonn.
  3. This is a tough ask. Coming off a 15 day break with still no Holmes and facing the best big in the league in Naz Hillmon makes the victory seemingly impossible but who knows? Good news is this is our only tough game for about two weeks and we should win at least the next three after this (and maybe four if we get a makeup game in there somewhere which is possible). Tomorrow is toughest game left outside the Maryland road game to close season.
  4. And it says you can get a waiver with less than 25 games. Like anything else with NCAA, the rules are not really rules. I expect IU to make up two of their four missed games given the gaps they have in schedule. However, I fully expect IU to finish second in Big Ten behind Michigan. Still a top 4 seed is almost a certainty in Big Ten and NCAA Tournament and don't expect team to be worse than 13-3 in conference. I would just be shocked if Michigan has more than two losses plus they are likely to have tiebreaker by beating us Monday, so we will need one less loss than them to win conference.
  5. Best thing to happen to you. This Sunday game is likely to be a loss without Holmes given Iowa has two excellent big's. This gives IU a huge leg up to try to win the Big Ten on percentage points and have only one loss against Michigan heading into final four games when hopefully you can have Mac back. Now you can resume next Thursday against Illinois in a game that is a good one after a long break and gives you an easy win to get into shape heading into Michigan.
  6. The Iowa game getting cancelled would be huge as that is a likely loss against a really good Hawkeye team coming on strong. If we can resume next Thursday against Illinois in 10 days we can probably go into the final four games with no more than one loss and hopefully get Mac back by then and win Big Ten Title on percentage.
  7. Theoretically yes as it is by winning percentage, but my guess is they come back in 10 days against Illinois. If IU is 14-0 in conference though they win on percentage indeed.
  8. What a game! IU is so lucky how mediocre the Big Ten is outside Michigan, Maryland, and maybe Iowa. OSU, NW and Neb are decent but far from great, PU and MSU are mediocre at best and Rutgers, PSU, Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin are about the worst teams you will ever see. Even if Holmes is out a month lets say, IU can survive without her as they have games with MSU, PU, Minnesota and Illinois at home and Illinois on road as well. The tough ones in next month are Michigan and Iowa on road. Even if you lose those though and head into four game gauntlet (@Neb, NW, Iowa, @Maryland) to close season at 11-2 you are in great shape from both a chance to win Big Ten Title and get top 4 seed to host NCAA Tournament games. Need NCH as her defense and point guard play are irreplaceable. I love Moore-McNeil but that's a huge drop off. However, fortunately Health and Safety Protocols should put her back by next Sunday @Iowa at the very latest. Holmes could be longer, but you can survive without her, using a combination of Brown and Gulbe at center for the time being and should focus on getting Mac healthy for March. Also Patberg rolled her ankle today but I think she is ok.
  9. IU can survive for a while without Holmes even if it is not ideal. They CANNOT survive without Cardano-Hillary. Not so much on offensive end is it a problem but Moore-McNeil can't defend which is IU's bread and butter. Fortunately COVID is probably 2, maybe 3 games at most. Holmes could be out a bit longer. Today's equivalent is men missing TJD and Xavier. Would be much much harder to win regardless of opponent.
  10. That helps some but only a little. "Some Time" could mean a long time or a little time depending on how you define it and it is deliberately vague. It could be they don't know as it says later in tweet and she could be fine in a week or could be out all year. Sounds like uncertainty to me.
  11. Historically it is a great comparison, as IU Men and Purdue Women were both the elite program in the conference until mismanagement and bad coaching decisions pushed them towards mediocrity. Now both have hired former players who were among the best in their time with program, but neither has Division 1 coaching experience. Purdue Men and IU Women are a good analogy for the present day as both are in up cycles. However, historically there is no comparison as PU Men have always been solid, while IU Women were the joke of the conference for most part until Moren got here.
  12. If there is any game for Mac to be out its this one, as Purdue has only one big they play and is mediocre and everyone else is a guard. MSU's best players by far (Nia Clouden and Matilda Ekh) are also guards and their bigs are mediocre. If Mac needs it, I would rest her next two games and try to get her back for Iowa where you absolutely need her. While Caitlyn Clark is the probably the best player in the Big Ten and a guard for the Hawks, her sidekicks McKenna Warnock and Monica Cinzano are bigs and really really good as well. Hoosiers only have two tough games in next month and can probably survive losing only at Michigan and Iowa without her (Michigan's best player is a big in Naz Hilmon who along with Clark is best player in conference and Emily Kizer is also a solid big). Rest of competition is incredibly mediocre at best as our their bigs. Need Mac by February 15 at absolute latest for four game gauntlet to close season with at Nebraska, NW, Iowa and at Maryland. Four good teams with good bigs.
  13. Don't be. Purdue is improved, but still struggle against top competition like IU. You have to be careful because they are your rival, but Boilers play an entire rotation of guards except for one player so if there is any game you can afford to not have Holmes from a match-up standpoint this is it. Purdue is not close to as talented as the Huskers. If you can beat the Nebraska without Holmes, you should definitely beat Purdue and Michigan State who are not as good. Iowa in 10 days is a different animal and IU very unlikely to get victory there without her back, as that is a tough game anyways, but next two rest Mac unless she is 100% and no excuse not to get victory either way.
  14. Team had to hit jump shots without Holmes and they are so far. I worry this pace is to fast for their liking and may wear out given lack of depth, but doing all they can with hand they have been dealt.
  15. I assume its day-to-day, but I would say this changes IU from a slight favorite to a slight underdog tonight. Very much the equivalent of Trayce missing a game on men's side.
  16. Could be. I am worried to, but they finally have two higher ranked recruits coming in this year with Lily Meister and Alexis Barger who are both Top-75 four-star players. Recent recruits and transfers have almost all been three-star and lower. Also, high on the girl from Israel. The transfers have been of both races at the end of the bench. Moren is not everyone's cup of tea and demands a lot, but the players who like her, really like her. We also need to see what she does in the transfer portal in the offseason, as that is an avenue to get terrific players as Nebraska's best player Jaz Shelley is now (who IU plays tonight). What do Mackenzie Holmes, Ali Patberg and Grace Berger have in common? Five-star recruits. Holmes is actually back next yr as a true junior and Gulbe, Cardano-Hillary and Berger all have options to come back. The rankings do matter despite what people tell you even though they are not perfect. Moren has a very strong defensive system and I wonder when she actually has to replace people and plug in players if it will work. It remains to be seen but it could. This team's depth is awful, but has the best starting line-up in the Big Ten and no bench. You know who else had this problem? The 2012-2013 IU men's team with Zeller and Oladipo with no bench outside Sheehey, but best starting line-up in the conference. The two teams have a lot of similarities in almost every way. Holmes and Zeller are both star centers in the post, Cardano-Hillary and Hulls are both underdog guards who are good shooters, Berger and Oladipo match as terrific all-around players and really good defenders, Watford and Gulbe are both hybrid big's who can step out and shoot a three, Patberg and Ferrell are less of a comparison, but it's the best available, and 2016 Yogi and Patberg work well as the veteran team leader, Browne as IU's top sub likes to take charges and provide energy and annoy other opponents like Sheehey, Moore-McNeil like Abel is the only other decent player off the bench and can every once in a while give you a good game. The rest of the players are not worth a lick on either team. The point is you would like to have more depth, but both the 2012-2013 IU men's team and 2021-2022 women's team can both win the conference, get a one seed in tourney and make a long run with what they do have. Moving forward there is a a lot of uncertainty but it could also work out. There is no guarantee they will be 'really bad'. This years baseball team is in same boat with a bunch of new players. There is uneasiness and a lot of unknowns, but until you see them play there is very much optimism it could definetely work out. Also, if Moren tanks after this yr, she will still be far and away the best coach IU has ever had by a large margin. This will be her fourth NCAA Tournament Appearance in her career (and would of been a fifth if not for COVID). Prior to her tenure there were four tournament appearances in all of history and with her it will be basically five in her eight yr tenure. The most likely possibility with the IU women here, is what happened with baseball where the College World Series with Tracy Smith was never repeated, but you settle in as a solid Big Ten team that makes tournament most years instead of the bottom feeder you were prior to this big run.
  17. Totally a guess but this probably had something to do with the concussion she got recently.
  18. Attendance numbers confirm this. All the previous non-student games were announced at 12,000+ while last night was announced at 14,000+. 20-111-2012 and 2012-2013 not withstanding when every game against everyone was packed to the rafters and the non-student games sold out or came very close, 14,000 or so has been pretty typical for the weeknight holiday Big Ten games with no students (weekend Big Ten games without students have been slightly higher).
  19. For sure. Although it does help that the women's team at Wisconsin has been by far the worst in the Big Ten for a long time.
  20. I wonder what displaced it on FS1
  21. I can tell you NBA and NFL have leadership and will and have adapted to the new guidance. College, unless NCAA or conferences make uniform standards will continue to vary by what each team decides to do. Some like Calipari and UK will follow the CDC and only test symptomatic players, but others will come to their own conclusion and test everyone everyday or every few days.
  22. Well Jeff Goodman just confirmed that indeed teams are in charge of their own covid protocols and there is no consistency with half testing everyone and half not. Once again NCAA is brilliant and burying head and sand. What a mess and wild west!
  23. Almost certainly yes, but not 100%. 1. A win in week 17 over Raiders officially clinches no matter what for Colts. However, for a win over the Jags in week 18 to clinch a playoff spot with a loss to the Raiders, Indy would need: 1. The Ravens or Patriots to lose in week 17 or 18, 2. Raiders to lose in week 18 3. Ravens to win out and the Bengals lose out. If Raiders go 2-0, Ravens 2-0, Patriots 2-0 and Bengals at least 1-1, an Indy win over Jacksonville still leaves Colts on outside looking in.
  24. What in the world does this have to do with what I said? I talked about how teams can easily abuse testing protocols and you are talking about the genetics of the virus. Those are not remotely related.
  25. Until the NCAA does something to take over the testing, you are going to see the wild west of COVID cancellations with college. By letting the teams themselves police it, you will have some teams not test at all, some call off a game down their two best players testing positive but play if they have three guys at end of bench test postive, some may test all players everyday, some may test only symptomatic players once a week. Letting the teams handle this is a terrible idea but what is new with NCAA? Supposedly teams are supposed to play with seven available players, but there is absolutely no way to verify if teams are following this. For all we know the best player on Wiscy tested positive and they called off the game over that while IU played last night and did not test a single player. I am not saying this happened and it may very well not of, but letting the teams handle this is beyond stupid. Much rather have leagues handle the testing and police whether a game is played like in pros so their is no conflict of interest. Some of these college games probably could probably of been played if the NCAA or conference handled and policed the testing but by the teams doing it I am sure there is a ton of abuse of the system.
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