BottomLine

Class of '66 Old Fart - Wow great picking on the IU/ND game. Nailed the IU score and missed ND by a point for a total of 134 points. I figure a jump from #17 to #4 and only 6 points off the top spot.

Got the dope. My uncle Joe's neighbor has a son named MIke, who has a son also named Mike that is in elementary school. The young Mike is best friends on the playground with a kid that has a father who sell tickets for the Pacers, and he says that there is a chance that TJD may consider going pro. So it looks like he must be gone.

Sorry, when you are retired the days get mixed up pretty easily. Checked the newspaper and THIS IS FRIDAY. Line should be up by now.

Vegas line usually comes out 24 hours before tip.

My crystal ball is certainly murky for this game. This game scares me. We have a couple of big question marks. Green is obviously out or hasn't been able to practice this week. Could that be addition by subtraction or will it doom our outside game. With the ball in his hands Green strangles our offense. When he heats up from outside we can play with anyone. Either way having Green gone will impact our game. Just don't know which way. On the other hand Phinisee is back. The second question is how will we react to a week off for finals. Hope our boys have been getting some sleep and not burning the midnight oil too much. Remember those days well. I know we have practiced but will we come out flat? Have a bad feeling about this one. We better guard the line. ND has averaged 38 3-point attempts over its last three games. Those guys like to chuck it up and they are shooting 34.2% for the season. ND made 20 and 15 3-pointers in their last two games. Sounds like a Crean team, except they are only turning the ball over 11.8% of the time, compared to our 16.1%. Again our defense better show up. And, if we are planning on camping out at the free throw line, ND is only averaging 12 fouls/game, one of the best totals in the country. On the other hand they don't get to the free throw line themselves very often. Sounds like a tough matchup for the Hoosiers. However, ND is projected for the lower half of the ACC with a record of 9-11 and an overall record of 18-13. Their non-conference schedule has been weaker than IU's. I kid you not. They have played only two games against group I or group II competition and lost both. They are 6-0 against the IVs and 2-1 against the IIIs. Time to shut up and make a prediction. I'm putting entirely too much thought into this process. I'm looking at a total of 146 (no overtimes please) and a 4 point IU victory. That would make the prediction: IU 75 Notre Dame 71

Thinking everyone finishes 10-10 in the Big 10 and all 14 share the championship.

Just saying the discussion is a bit premature and there are plenty of other things to discuss. I'll monitor and comment it I think I can add anything significant. He is certainly a talented young basketball player and I'd love to see him back next year and see him grow. I'm just not enamored with the rush to get to the next level, unless you are a guaranteed lottery pick. Have seen too many young players get a big head and poor advice and then flame out. I understand the get the money and run attitude. I also understand the philosophy of going early and getting to that second contract as a free agent sooner. That is where the real money is to be had. However, if you try to jump to the NBA too soon, you run the risk of never getting to that second contract. I just not excited about over evaluating our players (all Hoosiers do that) and then worrying all year whether they are going to jump ship. Jackson-Davis is not a complete player yet. The time for evaluation, in my eyes, should be much closer to the end of the season

For the Sky is Falling Club that thinks IU should be embarrassed by our win over Nebraska, and that Nebraska resembles something smelly that my dogs left in the back yard, Nebraska just beat Purdue by 14.

I'm not even going to think about this and give myself a headache. We aren't even a third of a way through his freshman season and people are starting to panic that he is a one and done. Just going to enjoy the whole season as best I can and then worry about who goes and stays after the season is over. We are getting the cart ahead of the horse here.

We aren't even to the end of December and you are willing to give up half of the games that are still ahead. NO, will not go for that. Roll the dice and let's see how this one plays out.

Is the sky falling or something? Really enjoyed the game last night and let's give some credit to Fred Hoiberg for putting together an excellent game plan that his team followed. I wouldn't expect less from Hoiberg. He is an excellent coach. On offense they spread IU out and made us play one-on-one defense. Five out and none in means that our bigs have to come outside and guard on the perimeter and we got exposed. In addition it takes away our help defense since it pulls players back inside and leaves open shooters on the outside. The move took Brunk and Davis out of the game and negated one of our biggest advantages. Nebraska also ran some clear-outs where we were forced to play one-on-one. Folks that is how you beat a pack line defense. They forced IU to defend the outside instead of the inside. That is how you turn a plus (our size) into a negative and is the product of good coaching. On defense, Nebraska tried to take away our inside game by giving us all the outside shots was could want and more. We choked on that diet until the second half when we started to go inside and Jackson-Davis and Smith started to take over. Simply put, Nebraska had too little size and too many fouls to stop us inside. That is why I never thought the game was in doubt. Credit MIller for correcting our offense on the fly. Credit Fred Hoiberg for an excellent job of coaching last night. He turned the game into a chess match and made it close as a result. Unfortunately for Nebraska they did not have enough pieces to win the game, but they certainly game us a game that we will remember. The Big 10 is full of good coaches and they all look at film. last year it didn't take them long to figure out that Indiana had Langford and Morgan and not much else. Game plan to stop those two and you stop IU. You can bet that those coaches will now be looking at film of last night's game and the Wisconsin game for how to stop the Hoosiers. This is where MIller earns those big bucks that we are paying him. This is his team that he has assembled and I'm sure he is aware of exactly what happened last night. The weight now falls on his shoulders to find a way to fix the problems. I'm not sure exactly what that may be (They aren't paying me those big bucks to fix anything). There has to be a solution. We aren't just going to throw the season away. My fear is that there won't be a solution coming because Coach Miller can be pretty inflexible at times. My feeling is that if something isn't working, fix it! I like Coach MIller and I like the team he has assembled. I desperately want the Hoosier to do well. But, if you are going to evaluate the job Coach Miller has done at IU, this is where you begin. Don't give me excuses. I'm only interested in results. I hope we can find a way.

Wisconsin just reverted to form. The caught us flat footed in Madison but they aren't a very good team this year.

Wisconsin just reverted to form and lost to Rutgers.

Was wondering at the time why Jackson-Davis took a seat for so long in the second half. I would have thought he would be on the floor more. Then this morning it hit me. IU is struggling through a scoring drought in the second half and points are really hard to find. Then IU puts the ball up and Jackson-Davis get called for offensive goal tending on a ball that was already inside the hoop and on the way down, thus taking two points off the board. It was an incredible bone headed play. Moments later Jackson-Davis is on the pine. Think Miller might have been sending a message? I don't care who you are, get your head in the game kid! Anyone else notice this?

I must be overthinking things. Think I'll try putting in my guess early instead of late and see if it makes a difference. Good points for Nebraska. We have a common opponent, S Dakota St. We won by 14 (64-50). Nebraska won by 17 (90-73). Nebraska is shooting the 3 at a 32.7% clip. Now for the Nebraska bad stuff. We are averaging 7 points more per game and IU is 12.5 points per game better on defense. Nebraska is projected to be 0-20 in the Big10 this year. They are not very good at guarding the 3-point line and gave up 13 3s to Creighton, 11 to George Mason, and 9 to Southern. They don't rebound well. They are 0-1 against Q1 competition and 0-1 against Q2, and they have lost twice to Q4 teams. In short they look worse than Wisconsin, but not by much. The Hoosier offense has stalled in the last two games and this would be a good place to get back on track, especially with Phinisee expected to see more time. Plus we should welcome playing on our home court again. Hoosiers 85 - Cornhuskers 68

Hope you are right. Got the same numbers.

I stuck my neck out on the Wisconsin game and got it chopped. The Badgers beat us like an old rug. I swore that the Wisconsin jinx in Madison was ready to end and our boys had some mental toughness. We didn't. Beat on the board by a smaller team! Only forces 4 turnovers! Allowed Wisconsin to look like the best shooting team in the country! Brother, what a mess! Now where do I go? What you have done in the past is usually the best indicator of what you are going to do in the present, at least until it doesn't. See Wisconsin. Now where are our boy going to be mentally? Do we fight back or roll over and play dead? When will Phinisee finally reappear? Plenty of big questions to answer against Connecticut, which on paper is a tougher team that Wisconsin. Connecticut shoots the 3-ball well and in volume and on paper they have a better 3-point defense than IU. They rebound well and force turnovers. What a recipe for disaster, if our A team doesn't show up with some grit and determination we can be run out of the gym on national TV. I have NO confidence in this game. There are just too many variables. Vegas has it with an o/u of 142 and an implied final score of 72.5 to 70. I've almost talked myself into picking against the Hoosiers, but I'll ride with them one more time before I start picking against them, but I can't see going out on a limb. Feeling conservative about this game. IU 75 Connecticut 70

Wisconsin! I HATE Wisconsin. The thing to remember is that what happened 20-15-10 or 5 years ago has no impact on the game being played on Saturday. Really? Really! The physical aspect of games in the past have no impact on the game played at present. On the other hand the mental aspect can have an impact. What is this year's team thinking. Have we been snake-bit so often in Madison that when crunch time comes we will expect it to happen again? I'm thinking not, but we will just have to see. I'm thinking that this team can be pretty tough minded. On paper this is IU's game to lose despite the fact that Vegas has it as pick 'em with an o/u of 128.5. I'm not buying that. I know Wisky has a reputation for playing defense but 128.5 is way too low. IU has been over in 6 of 8 games with much higher o/us than that. Does Wisconsin have the firepower to keep up in a much higher scoring game? I don't think so. Their offensive average for the year is 66.5. In their three games with major competition they are 64.7. That fits in nicely with Indiana's defensive average of 63.6. The simple fact is that Wisconsin is a 60 point range team and needs to hold Indiana to the lower 60's or 50's to win. They aren't good enough to do that. Florida State, which probably plays much tougher defense than this group from Wisconsin, held IU to 80. Meanwhile North Carolina State pounded on Wisconsin. Which is the tougher team NC State or Fla St? I'm thinking Fla St. On the other hand, if the referees swallow their whistles that could be a problem. Florida States problem was that they couldn't guard without fouling. But everyone has had that problem with IU this year. Wisconsin's effective field goal percentage in their last three games has been 41.0, 35.8, 42.0. Their turnover rates in their last three have been 23.3, 22.4, and 15.4. Those numbers can get you beat by even a good mid-major. Is home cooking going to fix that? Where are the points going to come from? Vegas has this at 128.5 o/u and an implied score of 64.5 to 64. Hard to picture Wisconsin scoring more points than Florida State. So I'll shave 4 points to get Wisconsin's score. On the other hand I don't think Wisconsin can apply as much pressure as Florida State, so I'll take the same score for the Hoosiers just to be a bit conservative. And there you go. How did you come up with your numbers? IU - 80 Wisconsin- 60 Let's break the losing streak in a BIG way. Go Hoosiers.

I'll take a look over there.

Can't believe on a basketball crazy forum like this nobody has anything to say about the challenge. With three games to go the B10 leads 6-5 in a series where the ACC is getting exposed! The victory margins by the B10 have been +18, +18, +14, +16, *29, and +21. Only one game in the challenge has been decided by less than 10 points (Illinois came from 27 down to lose by 2). The last three games (Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State) could all be B10 wins. The success can't hurt the SOS argument from this point forward. Love seeing what the rest of the conference looks like.

Having fun with this league thus far, but I feel like I'm at the racetrack today. I've spent all afternoon doping out the horses and scrutinizing the past performances and I have the feeling like I'm going to lose to some little old lady that is picking jockeys wearing pink silks and riding gray horses. OK so here goes. The o/u in Vegas for this one is 140 and I have a feeling like that could be about right. Florida State isn't a high powered offensive team and we are due to come back to reality with some stiffer competition. FSUs O/D averages are 76 and 59.9 so they look like they try to beat you be stopping you from scoring. Their O/D averages for the four power 5 opponents they have played are 61.75 and 57.75. They are looking for a grind it out game. Their average o/u is 135.9. They are very big and their guards like to put pressure on the ball. Can our guards hold up to that pressure? On the other hand IU has averages of 86.4 and 63.6 but we have played no power 5 opponents. Out o/u is 150.0. If Rob Phinisee were healthy and starting tonight I would comfortably go with the Hoosiers. He isn't. I'm afraid that FSU is going to clog up the middle with their big guys and turn us into a jump shooting team, which we don't do well. On the other hand the game is in Bloomington and the students should be back from Thanksgiving vacation. We are going to need that sixth man tonight. So, enough with the blah blah. With an o/u in Vegas of 140 and with IU favored, the implied score is 71-69 IU, I'll ride with the Hoosiers until they fall. I'll pick them the cover again and forget about the o/u. IU 75 FSU 65 .

Crazy numbers: After 7 games this year we are 7-0 but, of course, we haven't played any one. We are averaging 86.4 points/game and we are giving up 63.6/game. Last year at this time we were 5-2. the two losses were to Arkansas by 1 on the road and by 21 to Duke on the road. We had a good 23 point win over Marquette and 4 wins over cupcakes Chicago St, Montana St, Texas Arlington and UC-Davis. At that point we were averaging 82.1 points/game and giving up 64.6. Are the numbers really any better than last year, considering the competition? In a roller-coaster year we followed the Duke loss by winning 7 in a row to bring us to 12-2 and a #21 ranking in the AP poll. That was followed by a loss in 12 of the next 13 games before we righted ourselves and ended the regular season with 4 straight wins. By the end of the year we had a scoring average of 71.5 and a defensive average of 67.8 Really hope for a win on Tuesday but folks the jury is still out.

So everybody is going to temporarily drop the S Dakota St results and get back one of the other scores that was dropped. No big deal, right? Well, yes, because when we start picking losers the S Dakota St score is going to come back and haunt us and we will be GLAD to have it. What a monstrosity of a game. Am I worried? Not in the slightest. I don't PLAN to pick any losers, choke cough choke cough wheeze. Good luck to everybody with the Florida State game. I have a headache already.

This has the possibility of being a trap game. Big heads from a 6-0 start and the first major test coming next week, can't blame the guys for looking a bit ahead. Hope they tend to business as usual. Vegas has the over/under at 149. They are starting to wise up out there, especially after we have been over in 5 of 6. With IU favored by 17.5 that would make the implied final score something like 83.5 to 66.5. IU has also covered in 5 of 6. South Dakota State has played 3 major teams and lost all three on the road by an average of 81-67. I think IU has a better defense than any of those teams as well as a better offense, so I'm going over on the o/u and over on the spread. Looks like there are a lot of predictors here that are in agreement so there isn't much wiggle room this game. IU 90 SDst 65

6 games into the season and our 3-point defense is still a point of contention. Here is the season 3-point percentage for each of our opponents and the 3-point percentage for the game with IU Western Illinois (41.1 - 29.2) Portland State (29.9 - 50.0) North Alabama (32.0 - 50.0) Troy (27.1 - 20.0) Princeton (28.7 - 22.2) Louisiana Tech (31.3 - 40.0) We have allowed over 40% 3-point shooting or better in 3 of our 6 games, and that includes our biggest tests Portland State and Louisiana Tech. We still won all six but there are plenty of good 3-point shooters still to come this year and plenty of work still to do. Three of six at 40 or over seems like a lot to me, especially against high volume teams. Are we that bad or is it just a case of random streaky shooting from our opponents? Speaking of streaks - there are still 27 undefeated teams (IU included)