BottomLine

Has this topic been pulled?

Any interest in Derrick Smits the center from Valpo? 7-2 and 240 grad transfer. He was leading scorer and rebounder.

Was under the impression that all of the Crean players stayed in Bloomington over the summer, attended summer school, and worked out. As a result most met their graduation requirements in three years.

With only 13 scholarships to give, a coach has very little room for mistakes. Get a few too many wrong and you are looking for a new job. It also goes the other way. A player goes to a school thinking he is going to be a star and then ends up at the end of the bench for two years or more. Wish I had seen more of what Moore could do but frankly he was on the path to be the next Priller (who I also would have liked to see more, but what do I know?). Sometimes it is best for all concerned to just say that it isn't working out and move on to a new place where there is a better opportunity. It really isn't anyone's fault. Looking at IU's roster for next year, Franklin and Jackson-Davis are locked in. I can't see Durham, Phinisee, Forrester, Hunter, or Thompson going anywhere. They seem to be valued by the staff and can see a path to the future. A month ago I thought Davis might be a grad transfer or physically unable to perform but a strong finish to the season probably makes his a definite return now. That makes four question marks. Will Langford take the money and run? I don't think he is a lottery pick right now but is probably still in the first round. I can see him (I hope) not declaring and going through the NBA evaluation camp. Have never thought Green was happy at IU and how he was being used. The comments he made about the fans when he was suspended lead me to believe that he has at least considered the grad transfer route. Smith is another that I suspect isn't totally happy. He just doesn't seem to be committed much of the time. If he considers leaving it would be as a sit one and play two. Guess is that he stays at least until he graduates but who knows. Anderson seems to be a lost man right now. Don't know what the staff is telling him but he doesn't look happy. He had his opportunity earlier in the year and just didn't come through enough to permanently crack the playing rotation. Will next year be any different? If not, the writing is probably on the wall and I can see him looking for another situation where he is more appreciated. It isn't always easy to divine what is going through the mind of young men, who all probably have a touch of ego. But, sometimes it isn't so hard either. Whatever happens, IU is still my team and I wish happiness and the best to everyone.

Below are the latest bracket projections from Joe Lunardi broken into groups of four. With each team is their season record, Pomeroy rating, Sagarin Rating, and T-Rank Rating. The T-Rank Rating is probably closest to the breakdown that the NCAA Committee will use. It should make conference tournament watching interesting. Of course, as games are played the numbers will also change. BTW How in the world can Clemson be on the bubble? LAST 4 BYES Florida (17-14) 30-31-25 Seton Hall (18-12) 59-51-64 Arizona State (21-9) 62-53-71 Ohio State (18-13) 45-43-47 LAST 4 IN NC State (21-10) 31-24-36 Alabama (17-14) 60-58-50 Temple (23-8) 69-65-58 Clemson (19-12) 28-29-22 FIRST 4 OUT TCU (19-12) 48-37-42 Indiana (17-14) 42-33-48 Creighton (18-13) 49-42-45 Saint Mary's (20-11) 33-44-39 NEXT 4 OUT Furman (25-7) 55-77-61 Murray State (27-4) 51-55-66 Dayton (21-10) 58-64-57 Butler (16-15) 61-54-63

Knock off the top high schoolers 5 for the NBA and there will just be another top 5 on the list available for college. A bigger concern might be the development league and kids skipping the college experience for that. My feeling is that the college game will be better having kids play that want to go to college.

Starting to look like almost nobody wants to fight their way into the tournament: Florida - Beat Arkansas on Thur Ohio State - Beat Indiana on Thur Alabama - Beat Ole Miss on Thur - TCU - Lost to Kansas St on Thur Indiana - Lost to Ohio State on Thur Creighton - Lost to Xavier on Thur Nc State - Lost to Virginia on Thur Butler - Lost to Providence on Wed Clemson - Lost to NC State on Wed Furman - Lost to UNC Greensboro on Wed Seton Hall v. Georgetown on Thur ASU v.UCLA on Thur Dayton v. Richmond/St Louis winner on Fri Temple v. Wichita State/ECU winner on Friday

NC State faces Virginia. Can't see them pulling that off.

Wednesday's games are through. TCU was a winner and moves on. Butler is back on the shelf after losing to Providence. Thursday is going to be a big day. 14 teams still fighting for the last 6 spots. You can't enjoy the scramble without a schedule. And, of course, there is always the possibility that some outside team will win one of the conference tourneys and ****** one of the spots. Murray State Won OVC tourney and is in field of 68 St Mary's Won WCC tourney and is in field of 68 TCU Kansas State (Thur) NC State Virginia (Thur) Florida Arkansas (Thur) Alabama Ole Miss (Thur) Seton Hall Georgetown (Thur) Indiana Ohio State (Thur) Ohio State Indiana (Thur) Creighton Xavier (Thur) Arizona St Stanford/UCLA winner (Thur) Dayton St Louis/Richmond winner (Fri) Temple Wichita St/ECU (Fri) Clemson DONE - Lost to NC State Furman DONE - Lost to UNC Greensboro Butler Done - Lost to Providence

Getting down to crunch time. Murray State and St Mary's have had their ticket punched for the NCAA Tournament. That probably leaves 14 teams fighting for the last 6 spots. You can't enjoy the scramble without a schedule. And, of course, there is always the possibility that some team will win one of the conference tourneys and ****** one of the spots. Murray State Won OVC tourney and is in field of 68 St Mary's Won WCC tourney and is in field of 68 TCU OK State (Wed) Butler Providence (Wed) NC State Virginia (Thur) Florida Arkansas (Thur) Alabama Ole Miss (Thur) Seton Hall Georgetown (Thur) Indiana Ohio State (Thur) Ohio State Indiana (Thur) Creighton Xavier (Thur) Arizona St Stanford/UCLA winner (Thur) Dayton St Louis/Richmond winner (Fri) Temple Wichita St/ECU (Fri) Clemson DONE - Lost to NC State Furman DONE - Lost to UNC Greensboro

That's about it. If IU is the last one left out, remember this game because I'm not sure St Mary's would have gotten in otherwise. On the other hand, when we win the Big 10 Tourney we may be edging out someone else. Right now I think we are capable of beating anyone in the Big 10. Can we take everyone down on consecutive days? That may be the question. It could be the only way we get in though.

Took me a second to figure that out, and then it hit. Right you are.

That means that St Marys gets the automatic and Gonzaga will get in as an at large. St Marys was below us on the First Four Out list.

St Marys just clobbered Gonzaga. This is not a good thing for us. Thinking that St Marys now eats up one of the bottom seeds with 22 wins and a thrashing of what was a probably #1 seed.

Time to do some crazy speculating. IU is 6-10 in conference and has two remaining games with Illinois and Rutgers. If we win both we are 8-12 in conference. Minnesota is 8-10 and has remaining games with Purdue at home and Maryland on the road. They could lose both and finish 8-12. Ohio State is 8-10 and has a road game at Northwestern and a home game with Wisconsin. The should beat Northwestern but let's say they don't and then lose to Wisconsin in Columbus. They would finish 8-12. Rutgers is 7-11 and has a home game with Penn State and then goes on the road to Indiana. If they hold serve against Penn State but lose on the road to Indiana they finish 8-12. Finally we have Illinois. They are 6-11. They have home games with Northwestern, Indiana, and Penn State. If they lose to Indiana and beat both Northwestern and Penn State, they finish at 8-12. And, there you have it a potential five way tie for 7th in the Big Ten and a tie breaker nightmare. Just food for thought on a crazy day when IU knocks off #6. Go Hoosiers!

Here if the breakdown: Big Ten Basketball Tournament Tiebreakers Oct. 26, 2015 I. Teams shall be seeded No. 1 through No. 14 in the tournament bracket based on the final regular-season Conference standings. II. A team’s seed shall correspond to its regular-season finish (i.e., the champion shall be the No. 1 seed, the runner-up the No. 2 seed, etc.). III. Teams that finished Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 4 in the regular-season shall receive a “bye” through the first two rounds. IV. In case of a tie for any place finish in the regular-season standings, the following tie-breaking procedure shall be followed in order to seed teams in the tournament bracket: A. Two-team tie: 1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season. 2. Each team’s record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings (or in the case of a tie for the championship, the next highest position in the regular-season standings), continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage. a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams. b. When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0). 3. Won-loss percentage of all Division I opponents. 4. Coin toss conducted by the Commissioner or designee. B. Multiple team tie: 1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season. a. When comparing records against the tied teams, the team with the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0). b. After the top team among the tied teams is determined, the second team is ranked by its record among the original tied teams, not the head-to-head record vs. the remaining team(s). 2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team’s record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage. a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams. b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0). 3. Won-loss percentage of Division I opponents. 4. Coin toss conducted by Commissioner or designee.

Is that how the ties would be broken? Then how do you break the 3-3 and 3-4 ties?

Just playing mental math but the thing is, it isn't beyond the realm of possibility. Amazing how few games the middle bunch has left against the top of the conference.

Then I'm thinking that he will be gone and the same is probably true of Davis. I believe that IU has a policy of guaranteeing these players support until they are granted a degree. If they are graduated in three years, I think the school responsibility has be fulfilled.

If he continues in school and graduates this spring, is he immediately eligible elsewhere under the grad transfer rule?

I'm not sure of how KenPom calculates this offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. Is the formula posted somewhere, or is that top secret/need to know only basis? Will the numbers change during the course of the tournament? Don't know but it should be something worth checking out this year. Do know that the numbers are related to how other teams are performing (ranking duh) because they change a bit every day.

I'm not looking at the KenPom rating numbers. I'm looking at the offensive rank and the defensive rank and combining those numbers. Will those numbers change if they win six games in the tournament? Probably a bit but you are looking at ranks that have been computed over a 30 game schedule and only adding six more games. I actually have no idea how KenPom puts his numbers together but I assume that it is based on the whole season and that means that almost 85% of the statistics come from the regular season. Again that is just an assumption on my part. What I do know is that those numbers are very powerful when bracket time come around. HOWEVER, you must only compare majors with majors. The numbers for mid-majors do not hold up in the tourney. probably because they were mostly compiled against other mid-majors.

Here are the IU numbers dating back to 2002 Presently 34 + 18 = 52 2018 92 + 65 = 157 2017 27 + 104 = 131 2016 6 + 59 = 65 2015 8 + 200 = 208 2014 126 + 38 = 164 2013 2 + 19 = 21 2012 4 + 72 = 76 2011 61 + 128 = 189 2010 190 + 176 = 366 2009 231 + 174 = 405 2008 29 + 44 = 73 2007 26 + 23 = 49 2006 58 + 33 = 91 2005 68 + 76 = 144 2004 120 + 72 = 192 2003 20 + 102 = 122 2002 26 + 5 = 31 At least this gives us some a means to compare one team with another. In 2002 we lost to Maryland (4 + 7 = 11) in the championship game and in retrospect much of the work for that team can probably be attributed to the work that Knight did before Davis took over. In the seasons that followed it was obvious that Davis was not going to get us back to that level again. The Sampson teams were respectable but not championship caliber. It is obvious when Crean took over and starting with nothing he made significant progress, especially on offense, up until the 2013 season, where our total of 21 was almost at the threshold level. However, after 2013 we were back in the rebuilding mode again and we were making significant progress, again especially on offense, before Crean was let go. We are now undergoing another rebuild because of a change in philosophy. Crean's reams tried to beat you by outscoring you and overall did a pretty good job of doing that. Unfortunately, at times they had trouble stopping the other team from scoring. Now Archie is trying to build a team that wins by stopping you from outscoring us. Unfortunately, at times we have had trouble over the last two years scoring enough points to win. Both approaches are flawed, though the jury is still out on Archie. To win championships and hang banners you need to play offense AND defense. I think that Archie is aware of this, at least more so than Crean. What we will never know is how good the present team might have been with Hunter and Thompson available. I think we would have certain,y been better offensively. Our early season injuries have also set back the master plan. We have 18 more games to go against the best conference in the country. Let's hope the numbers continue to trend down.

Let's say that coach has a plan for developing this team. If he doesn't we have the wrong coach, but I'll not argue that at this point. He had players returning and a good recruiting class coming in, so it was expected that we would have a better product on the floor than we did last year. Then the nightmare begins with injuries and our bench disappears into the training room. Suddenly the coach's hands are tied and the "plan" goes out the window. He is forced to play players too many minutes and in some cases in positions that they were never intended to play. The result is lackluster performances against inferior teams and a blowout defeat to a very good team that simply outclassed us. Of more importance is team chemistry and roles have been perverted by bad breaks injury wise. So the big questions is how do we get this train-wreck back on the rails? I'm sure everyone has an opinion because that is part of the fun in being a Hoosier fan. The only opinion that matters is Archie's but I'm not going to let that stop me from chiming in. I think we only have two guaranteed starters on this team - Morgan and Langford, and Morgan is playing out of position. Smith has earned some pine time and I'd move Morgan to the 4 which is probably his natural position. Smith can be an energy guy off the bench until he can prove that he is able to handle the ball, make good decisions, pound the boards and finish in traffic. Ultimately Davis is going to be the stating center. I don't care how big Fitzner is, he is not going to play with his back to the basket. He is an instant offense guy that can come off the bench and pop some 3s. Maybe he can grab a few rebounds but don't expect an all around player. That he isn't. Since we have some big guards we can probably get by with playing only two bigs. I'd play Durham and Langford on the wings. Al has improved greatly this year. He can play defense and can handle the ball if needed. He has also demonstrated an improved offensive game this year. I think it is significant that Romeo is our second leading rebounder. However, he is not a shooter. He is a slasher and he is having trouble doing that as his way to the basket is blocked by his teammates. Get out of his way! Phinisee is also a slasher that has demonstrated the ability to get by his man so I'd go with him at the point. Unless his offense continues to develop McRoberts is a spot starter in place of Durham and instant defense and energy off the bench. Green has ability but he consistently STOPS the offense with his dribbling and selfish play. Anderson isn't ready yet for big time minutes. I have no idea what to do with Forrester and Moore. If Archie couldn't find minutes for them when we were shorthanded I don't know if they are going to help with injured players coming back. Hunter is a wash this year. By the time he gets back - if he gets back - roles will have been established. The wild card is Thompson. I really want to see this kid play but I have seen so little of him I don't know what I would do with him. He could be a Smith without the warts. He could be a bench buddy with Forrester and Moore. I suspect he is a player, especially after a year of practice, but I just don't know. So there you go. I'd start Davis, Morgan, Durham, Langford, and Phinisee. McRoberts, Green, Smith, Fitzner are my first four off the bench - depending on need at the time. I'm praying that Thompson will come back and make me change my thinking. Same for Hunter.

Used to work for a newspaper covering thoroughbred horse racing. I ran a daily betting column where I bet on the horses with a bankroll. That segment was called the Bottom Line. The name has just stuck.