I know it's a long shot, but I'm going to try to tie a ribbon around this extended argument of offering "diamonds in the rough" and offerring early.
The longshots recruits that have turned out fantastic for IU have one quality in common. They all have way way way above average quickness and athleticism. That is why Victor, Will (who was a state high jump champ) and now it appears OG are great finds , and why kids like MSB and others are, well, not quite as great.
Durham? "Explosive quickness" is the scouting report.