PERFECT analysis. Creme says the five in the middle of the Big10 are all four on the "last 4 byes list," with Washington (13th in BigTen at the moment, 14-12 overall) in the "last 4 in" list. So they are essentially all almost exactly the same in his eyes. Even Washington? I think we will have to drop to the "bottom of the middle of the Big10" to not make the tournament.
I also think that it will take being passed by several teams to keep us out of the big dance. I would feel better if we beat OSU, MSU, or Maryland. Since 2 of those 3 are here, I don't think it's impossible to steal one. Do that, and I feel very confident we're in the BigDance. Which is a big deal.