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Aaron

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Everything posted by Aaron

  1. Lipscomb has a strong offense and a really bad defense that leaks like a sieve. Should have no trouble scoring but need to make sure this does not turn into a Michigan type game.
  2. Big Ten was really weak this year (IU only bid and normally multiple teams make it) and it cost IU a national seed as did their sluggish play early. Good news is if they can get by Wake and Virginia, Elite 8 will likely be nearby at Notre Dame and College Cup is in Louisville. Kind of a reverse of the norm where IU starts closer to home and then goes farther as tournament goes along. Now after Thursday they start further and get closer if they keep winning.
  3. Just an FYI that Eastern Illinois is in contention to win their league and about no. 150 similar to Florida Gulf Coast on men's side. Lopsided difference in score Tuesday and tonight is difference between a team with almost all new players they are working in and a veteran side with national championship aspirations. Lipscomb, Princeton, Bowling Green also in that boat among IU's mid-major opponents on women's side picked to compete in their league. Stetson, Evansville, Maine, and Murray State are really bad and Stanford and Tennessee are fellow elite squads.
  4. Aaron

    2023 B1G Men's Soccer Tournament

    Makes sense.
  5. Aaron

    2023 B1G Men's Soccer Tournament

    Absolutely not. IU needs the better teams to win. Team now has a chance to get to the top 16 and a seed if they win all three games. To do that they need to play the higher RPI teams in Northwestern and then Michigan State or Penn State. You play them you're RPI will rise into the teens likely if you win all three and you get seeded and host on Sunday with a bye. In your scenario the RPI won't go above mid to high 20's and at best you are hosting on Thursday. Also as a bubble team would be much better to lose to NW, MSU, or PSU. You lose to one of them in semi's and/or finals you still likely make NCAA Tournament. You lose to Michigan and you may miss the tourney. All the Big Ten teams are relatively equal and with having the one seed you want to play the best team's possible to get in and improve NCAA chances and seeding. There is not much difference in terms of the chance of winning with the teams you gave vs. the ones I gave. Talent wise in Big Ten everyone is equal so playing all the teams you said will do is give less reward for a win and greater penalty for a loss with the RPI's being far lower.
  6. Just to be clear, anything above 40 should get you in but team would be playing on Thursday for third time in a couple decades with no first round bye. However, a first round Big Ten Tourney loss would drop you enough spots where you would be in 40's and likely out. If you can get it to 20 to 25 (aka pull the double and win Big Ten Tourney) you might sneak into top 16. Otherwise zero wins=bubble but probably out, 1 win=bubble but probably in and playing Thursday, 2 wins=definitely in and playing Thursday, 3 wins=auto bid and fringe top 16.
  7. Aaron

    Big Ten Season Predictions

    Great "homecourt" when every game is 50% or more opposing fans. I think they could be good, but to say their homecourt is great is pretty disingenuous. Been there twice and every game is basically a neutral NCAA Tournament environment. Very good atmosphere with the dueling chants and small venue, but certainly not the best environment to egg Northwestern on to a win.
  8. Aaron

    (2024) PF - Derik Queen to Maryland

    All I know is recruiting is only place where 'stealing' is not a crime. LOL. Coaches steal prospects from each other all the time legally. Any other business stealing gets you in legal trouble. I hope IU can do to Maryland what UK did to IU with Boogie. However, being back in the big time recruiting has reminded us all it is a dirty business with all these top prospects being enticed to change mind at last minute. Glad IU is playing the game again but recruiting definitely involves doing things that would be questionable in any other line of society.
  9. Slightly. Only fell three spots in RPI tonight at moment to 47. Need to win at least season finale (Trine doesn't count in RPI so that won't do anything) against Rutgers and one in Big Ten Tourney at MINIMUM but would be close. Winning three straight and getting to Big Ten final should be enough. What people are forgetting is if IU wins a couple in Big Ten Tourney it will move RPI up a lot with many teams around them falling in first couple rounds. Happened last year where winning a couple games rocketed team like 20 spots to host. That is not in play this year but two wins in conference tourney and a 15-20 spot ascent in RPI would put you comfortably in but playing Thursday which is ceiling no matter what. Can't get into top 16 and host anymore which will be third time since turn of century to go with 2009 and 2013. Lose or tie Sunday and then winning conference tourney is must or 36 year streak is over.
  10. The quantity of shots was great. The quality could have been better. Now an at-large bid to NCAA Tournament is in danger again. RPI only fell three spots to 47 at this moment but probably need it in 30's to feel good. One NCAA streak is over for Maryland at 22 and IU might need to get to Big Ten Tourney Final to not end theirs at 36. Big Ten Title is still in decent shape but needs some help. Team can still win Big Ten outright or share with a win and NW loss or tie AND Penn State Loss or tie. Would clinch at least third seed with win. Would be four or lower with loss or tie Lost of scenario's in play. Season was not lost tonight as games like this happen (just ask MSU earlier) all the time. The failure is all the losses and ties early with inability to score which left zero margin for error and you made one.
  11. Last two games is exactly why Harms being in goal can be frustrating. He has gotten a lot better, but his reaction time is a hair slow and his size is not ideal either. He makes up for it with his athleticism but there is a reason Muse and Celentano gave up less goals for most part. Both of the last two goals given up could have been saved. Not easy saves though. However, a top goalie like our last two with a bigger frame and a quicker reaction time might just make them. I am by no means saying replace him but we have a decent goalie instead of an elite goalie and it shows the last couple seasons.
  12. 22 year NCAA Tourney streak is over for Maryland. They will be the team not making Big Ten Tourney. With their talent do not want them in a 1-8 matchup with that streak on the line and now no one will have to deal with it. OSU and Brian Maisonneuve did IU a major solid tonight. MSU talent wise is easily the best team in conference and were easily the better team and got unlucky. Buckeyes the ultimate robbery tonight. A win or tie tonight puts team in pretty good shape and even a loss keeps you in contention with some help. A win clinches the two seed at minimum.
  13. Nope. PSU is at 13 points with one match left on Sunday. Even if IU gets to 14 with this game that is not enough if IU loses and PSU wins finale. IU does control its own destiny but has to win BOTH games to guarantee it. They can clinch at least third with a win. You can be eliminated tomorrow night with an MSU win and a loss or tie.
  14. IU amazingly is in control of their own destiny for Big Ten title if they win last two matches. Hoosiers are in a tough position though for NCAA Tourney seeding. Even if they win last five games (2 regular season, 3 Big Ten Tourney) and pull the double, they could well still be hosting in first round on Thursday without a bye in NCAA Tournament. In decent shape to make it now. However, it will take a miracle to get customary top-16 and bye regardless of what they do. In other words adding a one or two trophies to Big Ten case is well within reach. Making a long run in tourney will likely feature most brutal draw ever. They will have to play four games instead of three to reach College Cup in Louisville with three of them on the road.
  15. Aaron

    IU Volleyball

    Volleyball with a nail biting win over Ohio State to improve to 16-7 and 6-4 at the halfway point of Big Ten play. Every set was close and the Hoosiers took the final one by the narrowest margin possible at 15-13.
  16. Aaron

    (2024) - PG Boogie Fland to Kentucky

    No one including me has any clue what Liam was 'expecting'. I am just using logic based on what has been happening all fall.
  17. Aaron

    (2024) - PG Boogie Fland to Kentucky

    Don't feel bad for a 5* kid who made a choice where he KNEW he might be alone for now. McNeely is not backing out. I swear every bit of bad news IU gets leads to our fans thinking program is doomed and every bit of good news will lead to banner 6. The truth lies in between. Things are never as good or as bad as they seem in the moment and everyone for good reason is acting emotionally right now.
  18. Aaron

    (2024) - PG Boogie Fland to Kentucky

    There is zero chance McNeely backs out. Everyone nationally has been saying all along IU would win the McNeely recruitment and lose the others. McNeely knew he might be going at this alone and that has been a real possibility based on everyone's sentiment. McNeely may have committed HOPING to bag the other two but he knew it was possible he might be only one. Don't let losing out on Boogie give you that irrational thought.
  19. Aaron

    (2024) - PG Boogie Fland to Kentucky

    One very good player. It is a start for the spring which is where Woody lives and first time he has landed an elite prospect prior to that so in that sense he is ahead of where he has ever been.
  20. Aaron

    (2024) - PG Boogie Fland to Kentucky

    I would disagree. Beating Self for McNeely was no small task. It may have been less successful then hoped, but any fall that brings in a 5* recruit is a win to some extent. Fall 2023 was indeed not great. Fall 2024 was mild success but not the major success everyone hoped.
  21. Aaron

    (2024) - PG Boogie Fland to Kentucky

    They may have been hopeful but wind has been blowing UK's way since Monday as their writers were saying and Kent Sterling and Andy Sweeney got a hold of. No way he promised IU earlier today or this week and flipped tonight. IU side was just in dark or had bad info until tonight.
  22. Aaron

    (2024) - PG Boogie Fland to Kentucky

    Something changed Monday and IU guys weren't clued in. It was obvious from UK side they knew wind was blowing in their direction then which Kent Sterling and Andy Sweeney got a hold of on Kentucky end. It appears IU guys were left in dark until tonight and somehow Trilly was not clued in until now either. Sterling is always Mr. Positive for IU despite his quirkiness and overbearing love for Dakich. When he said UK I had a feeling it would go their way despite others telling me the opposite. This program wasn't living or dying with this recruitment. I have a feeling Woodson will kill it in spring with late recruitments and portal players as he always does and this time he gets to do it with an elite recruit in hand with McNeely. When he nabbed Ware and Mgbako last spring he had no great recruits already and in spring 2024 he will already have one in fold.
  23. Aaron

    (2024) - PG Boogie Fland to Kentucky

    I would be shocked if Liam has any second thoughts. He knew all along there were no guarantees and has leaned Indiana for months. All the experts have said IU would win Liam recruitment and lose the others. I am sure Liam would have loved more to come with him but was perfectly happy to come on his own or he would not have committed.
  24. Aaron

    IUWBB - News and Notes

    Correct you would have to pay the $9.95 a month or whatever is it to get the ability to message other verified users. Basically Elon is making it as tough as possible if you don't pay him the monthly fee which was his plan all along unfortunately.
  25. Aaron

    IUWBB - News and Notes

    "Verified" on X now means you paid for a subscription. It has nothing to do anymore with verifying the person being who they say they are. Obviously that is not an issue with Talia:). However, unless the checkmarks are yellow or gray for certain top organizations or government accounts respectively, they mean nothing. "Verified" now means paid money. The blue check should called 'subscriber' now with the way Elon changed its use. It really means nothing other than monetarily. The yellow and gray ones are the only marks that matter now.
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