Another Miracle in Madison?

Before slipping into mindless optimism, let's be honest...

This game has blowout written all over it. Indiana hasn't won a road game all year, and hostile Camp Randall seems an unlikely place to start. They are most likely going to be without the reigning B1G player of the week, Tevin Coleman. They have one of the worst rushing defenses in the nation (109) while Wisconsin has one of the most potent rushing attacks in the NCAA (10). Oh yea - and don't forget the Badgers are averaging 68 points per game against IU over the past three years. This one should be over by half time, but…what if it isn’t? It wouldn’t be the first time Indiana pulled off an unthinkable upset at Camp Randall. Here's how Bucky will fall:

#1 Absolutely Pack the Box

Wisconsin running backs James White and Melvin Gordon have their own little touchdown dance. As they've combined for 22 rushing touchdowns already this year, the dance has become quite popular. I'm sure we'll all be more than familiar with it by the time Saturday's game is over.

If Indiana is going to have any shot at containing the Wisconsin rushing juggernaut, they are going to have to cheat like your little brother playing Madden. Old Doug Mallory has to act like he can see the play his friend is choosing. Because he more or less can - it's a run! At the risk of going on a Mallory rant, I’d posit that the defensive coordinators try to overcomplicate their schemes. If you know Navy is going to run the triple option, overplay the option (like just about every other team that has faced the Midshipmen has done this year). If you know Wisconsin is going to run the ball, pack the box with as many players as humanely possible and say “good luck” to your corners. It's also going to be imperative that IU's defenders make the first tackle this week. Wisconsin backs thrive on making the first man miss and then...

#2 Get an Early Lead

The last time Indiana beat Wisconsin at Camp Randall, they jumped out to a shocking 32-0 first quarter lead. They silenced the crowd of 79,000+. They altered the Wisconsin game plan. They gave their suspect defense a cushion. That was 12 years ago, but not much has changed for the Hoosiers. Their defense is still their weakness and needs all they help they can get. Although the offense always ultimately ends putting points on the board, they have yet to put together an explosive first quarter. On the season, Indiana has scored 73 points in the first quarter, 99 in the second, 94 in the third, and 122 in the fourth. While this trend is likely caused by the pace of the offense wearing down opposing defenses throughout the game, the Hoosier O is going to need to show up early to the party this week. Indiana hasn’t made enough teams play catch-up this year. Finding a way to build a lead early will be paramount. If Indiana can get a lead, it won’t matter if they go back and forth scoring touchdowns with the Badgers for the rest of the game. The game will be in the offense’s hands at that point, and that’s good news for Hoosier fans.

#3 Satisfy Wilson’s Offensive Thirst

Despite the numbers the offense has put up this year, Kevin Wilson and the players habitually speak of the need for improvement. Indiana will need its best offensive performance of the year to stand a chance at Camp Randall. Indiana was only able to put up 28 points against the top defense in the country. They’ll have to do much better against the 7^th best unit. And by better, I mean they have to score virtually every time they get the ball. Just as they did in their last victory in Madison winning by a score of 63-32. As stated above, if the Hoosiers can find some way to build an early lead and then they don’t look back, the defense’s futility becomes irrelevant.

#4 Make Sunshine Step Up

If Indiana packs the box, Wisconsin will have to throw. If Indiana gets up big early, Wisconsin will have to throw. If the Hoosiers can successfully force Wisconsin quarterback Joel Stave to throw the ball, they may be in business. Stave is not a great QB. His quarterback rating is 52.3 on the year, he throws one interception for every two touchdowns, and he has -7 rushing yards on the season. He’s also incredibly predictable with nearly of half of his completions going to Jarred Abbrederis (how long has that guy been around?).

However, the famed Wisconsin offensive line does more than give running backs huge holes to run though; they give their QB ALL DAY to throw. Late in the second half of last week’s game against BYU, the Cougars were finally able to pressure Stave. Once they did, Stave struggled. Overloading the box will be just as important for pressuring the QB as it will be for stopping the run. Another big game from former Wisconsin commit Darius Latham would be nice...

#5 Force Field Goals

It's hard finding weaknesses on this Wisconsin team, but their kicking game leaves much to be desired. The Badgers rank 11^th in the conference in field goal percentage (58.3%). After missing some big field goals in the first half of the season, junior Kyle French was replaced by sophomore Jack Russell. The switch hasn’t paid off. Russell has been even worse than the man he replaced. Forcing a field goal in the red zone this week may not mean three points instead of seven. It may mean zero.

Prediction:

Alright. I’ve convinced myself it’s going to happen again. Twelve year’s later, the magic returns for the Hoosiers at Camp Randall. The prolific offense of the 2001 team led by Antwaan Randle El and Levron Williams reached its peak against the Badgers, just as this year’s prolific offense will do on Saturday. Indiana will jump out to an early lead in a game they have no business winning, and although the defense will do their best to let the Badgers back into the game, the Hoosiers offense just won’t let up on the poor folks in Madison.

Optimistic? Of course. Insane? To be determined.

INDIANA 52 WISCONSIN 41

Dear Indiana,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kKqg05gXEI